Texas voted Republican for president by 13.7 points in 2024, widening from 5.6 in 2020 as the national current ran toward Donald Trump. But the state moved in two directions at once. Its five largest urban counties held Democratic: Travis, around Austin, by 39.3 points — the bluest county in Texas; Dallas by 22.2; El Paso by 15.1; Bexar, around San Antonio, by 9.7; and Harris, the state’s largest, holding Houston by 5.5. Those margins narrowed from 2020 but did not fall. The Republican gains that decided the state came almost entirely from elsewhere — the rural counties and, most sharply, the long Mexican border to the south.
That border is the Rio Grande Valley, among the most heavily Hispanic ground in the country, and in 2024 it moved hard. Hidalgo County, 92 percent Hispanic and Democratic by 41.7 points in 2012, voted Republican by 2.9. Webb County, holding Laredo, went from D+53.9 in 2012 to R+2.2. Cameron, at the Gulf end, slipped from D+31.1 to R+5.8, and Maverick fell from D+58.1 to R+18.5. From 2020 alone the four moved 19 to 28 points right. Each had voted Democratic in every presidential election on record before 2024; each crossed the line that November.
Starr County is the clearest measure. It runs 97 percent Hispanic and had voted Democratic in every presidential race since at least 1904. It went for the Democrat by 73.3 points in 2012, narrowed to 5.0 in 2020, and in 2024 voted Republican by 16.0 — a flip of nearly ninety points across twelve years. The state underneath is 39.7 percent Hispanic and ranks second of fifty in residents speaking a language other than English at home, 28.2 percent of them Spanish. In 2026 Greg Abbott seeks a fourth term against Gina Hinojosa, while Ken Paxton, having beaten incumbent John Cornyn for the Republican Senate nomination, faces James Talarico.