HarrisDemocratic11.9%3,347TrumpRepublican87.7%24,691OliverLibertarian0.3%89
R+75.8- Lead
- 21,344
- Total
- 28,157
- vs nation
- R+74.3
- Turnout
- 66.0%
Akashiccounty
Hardin County, TX
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.0% of 42,848 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic12.6%3,474TrumpRepublican86.3%23,858JorgensenLibertarian1.0%276
R+73.8- Lead
- 20,384
- Total
- 27,635
- vs nation
- R+78.2
- Turnout
- 64.9%
ClintonDemocratic12.2%2,780TrumpRepublican86.1%19,606JohnsonLibertarian1.5%353
R+73.9- Lead
- 16,826
- Total
- 22,780
- vs nation
- R+76.0
- Turnout
- 55.4%
ObamaDemocratic15.8%3,359RomneyRepublican83.3%17,746GrayLibertarian0.7%156
R+67.6- Lead
- 14,387
- Total
- 21,297
- vs nation
- R+71.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic19.0%3,939McCainRepublican80.2%16,603OtherAll other candidates0.8%160
R+61.2- Lead
- 12,664
- Total
- 20,702
- vs nation
- R+68.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic27.1%5,608BushRepublican72.6%15,030OtherAll other candidates0.3%72
R+45.5- Lead
- 9,422
- Total
- 20,710
- vs nation
- R+43.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.4%5,595BushRepublican67.1%11,962NaderGreen1.0%185
R+35.7- Lead
- 6,367
- Total
- 17,836
- vs nation
- R+36.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic40.1%7,179DoleRepublican47.6%8,529PerotReform11.8%2,112
R+7.5- Lead
- 1,350
- Total
- 17,900
- vs nation
- R+16.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+75.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 57,6422024 5-year
- Median household income
- $75,8082024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 82.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+90.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+75.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Livingston Parish, LA · twin score 97.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.0%28,288 participants ÷ 42,848 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +18.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.7%–53.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 22,780 | 41,083 | 55.4% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 20,098 | 41,918 | 47.9% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 27,643 | 42,592 | 64.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 19,665 | 42,180 | 46.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 28,288 | 42,848 | 66.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
19 precincts · 28,157 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 365 | 3,089 | 10 | 3,464 | 10.5% | 89.2% | R+78.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 18Precinct 18 | 366 | 3,053 | 27 | 3,446 | 10.6% | 88.6% | R+78.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 336 | 2,807 | 16 | 3,159 | 10.6% | 88.9% | R+78.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 226 | 2,037 | 6 | 2,269 | 10.0% | 89.8% | R+79.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 178 | 1,596 | 9 | 1,783 | 10.0% | 89.5% | R+79.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 306 | 1,443 | 11 | 1,760 | 17.4% | 82.0% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 161 | 1,474 | 11 | 1,646 | 9.8% | 89.6% | R+79.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 19Precinct 19 | 129 | 1,212 | 6 | 1,347 | 9.6% | 90.0% | R+80.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 108 | 1,050 | 3 | 1,161 | 9.3% | 90.4% | R+81.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 118 | 989 | 2 | 1,109 | 10.6% | 89.2% | R+78.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 254 | 841 | 6 | 1,101 | 23.1% | 76.4% | R+53.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 102 | 967 | 3 | 1,072 | 9.5% | 90.2% | R+80.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 17Precinct 17 | 71 | 959 | 0 | 1,030 | 6.9% | 93.1% | R+86.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 434 | 493 | 5 | 932 | 46.6% | 52.9% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8Precinct 8 | 53 | 626 | 0 | 679 | 7.8% | 92.2% | R+84.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 51 | 619 | 2 | 672 | 7.6% | 92.1% | R+84.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 33 | 565 | 0 | 598 | 5.5% | 94.5% | R+89.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 29 | 437 | 2 | 468 | 6.2% | 93.4% | R+87.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 27 | 434 | 0 | 461 | 5.9% | 94.1% | R+88.3 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1908–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1908 | +53.0% |
| 1912 | +62.3% |
| 1916 | +73.1% |
| 1920 | +57.9% |
| 1924 | +38.2% |
| 1928 | +4.1% |
| 1932 | +89.1% |
| 1936 | +90.4% |
| 1940 | +85.9% |
| 1944 | +76.4% |
| 1948 | +66.9% |
| 1952 | +34.8% |
| 1956 | +5.3% |
| 1960 | +34.1% |
| 1964 | +44.2% |
| 1968 | +10.2% |
| 1972 | −27.4% |
| 1976 | +23.5% |
| 1980 | +9.3% |
| 1984 | −10.5% |
| 1988 | +8.9% |
| 1992 | +5.2% |
| 1996 | −7.5% |
| 2000 | −35.7% |
| 2004 | −45.5% |
| 2008 | −61.2% |
| 2012 | −67.6% |
| 2016 | −73.9% |
| 2020 | −73.8% |
| 2024 | −75.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 37 Senate · 4 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 38,154 |
| 2018 | 38,259 |
| 2020 | 39,952 |
| 2022 | 41,408 |
| 2024 | 43,116 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+100 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +4,186 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $63,841 in average income, against $86,734 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+30.8 on average — 45 points more Democratic-leaning than Hardin County, TX itself (R+75.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jefferson County, TX471R+8.9
- Orange County, TX135R+66.7
- Harris County, TX126D+5.5
- Tyler County, TX103R+73.5
- Jasper County, TX96R+66.6
- Liberty County, TX60R+61.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jefferson County, TX426
- Orange County, TX133
- Harris County, TX117
- Jasper County, TX107
- Tyler County, TX67
- Liberty County, TX35
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +142 |
| 2012 | −78 |
| 2013 | +47 |
| 2014 | +67 |
| 2015 | +106 |
| 2016 | +377 |
| 2017 | +756 |
| 2018 | −89 |
| 2019 | +434 |
| 2021 | +779 |
| 2022 | +753 |
| 2023 | +381 |
| 2024 | +411 |
| 2025 | +100 |
Hardin County, anchored by Kountze and Silsbee in the East Texas timber belt, recorded an R+75.8 presidential margin in 2024—among the widest of any county in the state and consistent with heavily Republican voting patterns across rural Southeast Texas.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 90.4 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 75.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 75.8 points.
A population of 57,642, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,808 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Livingston Parish and Grady County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Livingston Parish
Louisiana
97.0twin score
elasticity2008–2016 trajectory
Grady County
Oklahoma
92.1twin score
2008–2020 trajectory≠ French ancestry
Orange County
Texas
91.4twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory≠ French ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hardin County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48199/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Hardin County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Hardin County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hardin County, Texas voted Republican by 75.8 points (R+75.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 28,157 votes cast, 3,347 went Democratic and 24,691 went Republican.
When did Hardin County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Hardin County, Texas voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Hardin County, Texas?
Hardin County, Texas has a population of 57,642 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hardin County, Texas?
Median household income in Hardin County, Texas is $75,808 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Hardin County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hardin County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.