Name: 2026 U.S. Senate forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

All 35 seats on the 2026 ballot — the 33 Class 2 seats plus the Florida and Ohio specials — rated and expressed as win probabilities, with a 100-seat control simulation.

Democrats are favored to control the Senate — 56.7%

Democrats control

56.7%

Republicans control

43.3%

incl. 8.7% at 50–50 (VP breaks the tie)

Predicted Democratic seats

80% range 47–55

A 50–50 U.S. Senate is Republican-controlled — the Vice President breaks the tie — so Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50.

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Nebraska.

Model vs. market · control of the Senate

Akashic modelDemocratic 57%MarketRepublican 56%disagree · 13 pts apart

Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →

Every race, grouped by rating

All 35 seats under their published race rating, the bands running Safe Democratic down to Safe Republican. Each card is the seat, who holds it going in, the matchup (or the upcoming primary date), the market’s implied odds where Polymarket is trading the race, and how the seat has voted for president across the last five cycles. A cyan edge marks a seat projected to flip party. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.

Safe Democratic10 races1 projected flip

North CarolinaflipRepublican-held · openCooper·Whatley·Bray·McGinnisDemocratic 88%8’08even’12R+2’16R+4’20R+1’24R+3 ColoradoDemocratic-heldPrimary 06/30/26

How these ratings become probabilities → · The certified U.S. Senate record →