Forecast / U.S. Senate
2026 U.S. Senate forecast
All 35 seats on the 2026 ballot — the 33 Class 2 seats plus the Florida and Ohio specials — rated and expressed as win probabilities, with a 100-seat control simulation.
Democrats are favored to control Senate control — 57.9%
Democrats control
57.9%
Republicans control
31.0%
Even split
11.1%
Predicted Democratic seats
51
80% range 47–56
Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Michigan.
NHMARINJDE
Each state with a 2026 Senate race, filled by the favored party’s predicted margin · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result
Every race, most competitive first
Each row is a rating, the implied win probability, the predicted margin, and the 2024 baseline. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.
| Race | Rating | Win prob. | Predicted margin | 2024 baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+13.1 |
| Iowa | Tilt R | R 58% | — | R+13.2 |
| Maine | Tilt D | D 58% | — | D+6.9 |
| Michigan | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+1.4 |
| Ohio | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+11.2 |
| Florida | Likely R | R 73% | R+13.1 | R+13.1 |
| Rhode Island | Likely D | D 74% | D+13.8 | D+13.8 |
| Oregon | Likely D | D 74% | D+14.3 | D+14.3 |
| Delaware | Likely D | D 75% | D+14.7 | D+14.7 |
| Kansas | Safe R | R 77% | R+16.1 | R+16.1 |
| South Carolina | Safe R | R 79% | R+17.9 | R+17.9 |
| Texas | Lean R | R 81% | — | R+13.7 |
| Montana | Safe R | R 82% | R+19.9 | R+19.9 |
| Nebraska | Safe R | R 83% | R+20.5 | R+20.5 |
| Louisiana | Safe R | R 84% | R+22.0 | R+22.0 |
| Mississippi | Safe R | R 85% | R+22.9 | R+22.9 |
| Georgia | Likely D | D 86% | — | R+2.2 |
| Minnesota | Likely D | D 86% | — | D+4.2 |
| New Hampshire | Likely D | D 86% | — | D+2.8 |
| North Carolina | Likely D | D 86% | — | R+3.2 |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | D 88% | D+25.2 | D+25.2 |
| South Dakota | Safe R | R 91% | R+29.2 | R+29.2 |
| Tennessee | Safe R | R 91% | R+29.7 | R+29.7 |
| Alabama | Safe R | R 92% | R+30.5 | R+30.5 |
| Kentucky | Safe R | R 92% | R+30.5 | R+30.5 |
| Arkansas | Safe R | R 92% | R+30.6 | R+30.6 |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | R 94% | R+34.3 | R+34.3 |
| Idaho | Safe R | R 95% | R+36.5 | R+36.5 |
| Colorado | Safe D | D 96% | — | D+11.0 |
| Illinois | Safe D | D 96% | — | D+10.9 |
| New Jersey | Safe D | D 96% | — | D+5.9 |
| New Mexico | Safe D | D 96% | — | D+6.0 |
| Virginia | Safe D | D 96% | — | D+5.8 |
| West Virginia | Safe R | R 97% | R+41.9 | R+41.9 |
| Wyoming | Safe R | R 98% | R+45.8 | R+45.8 |