AkashicIowa — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 56% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 14-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Josh TurekDNominee | for | |
| Ashley HinsonRNominee | for | |
| Thomas LaehnLibertarianNominee | not yet filing | — |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Open seat; incumbent Joni Ernst (R) not seeking re-election (announced 2025-09-02), excluded. Hinson won the GOP primary (73.9%); Turek won the Dem primary (62.6%). Libertarian Thomas Laehn qualified via petition. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the IA state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+7 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR | R+31 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Hinson 48·Turek 46 | R+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 377 LV | Wahls 46·Hinson 44 | D+2 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 377 LV | Turek 46·Hinson 45 | D+1 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →