Forecast / Governors
2026 Governors forecast
The 36 governorships on the 2026 ballot, rated into a 50-state statehouse outlook.
Republicans are favored to hold a majority of statehouses — 56.9%
Democrats hold
34.4%
Republicans hold
56.9%
Even split
8.6%
Predicted Democratic seats
24
80% range 17–29
Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Kansas.
VTNHMARICTMD
Each state with a 2026 governor race, filled by the favored party’s predicted margin · hover for the rating · forecast, not a result
Every race, most competitive first
Each row is a rating, the implied win probability, the predicted margin, and the 2024 baseline. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.
| Race | Rating | Win prob. | Predicted margin | 2024 baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+13.1 |
| Georgia | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+2.2 |
| Kansas | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+16.1 |
| Michigan | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+1.4 |
| Nevada | Tilt D | D 58% | — | R+3.1 |
| New Hampshire | Tilt R | R 58% | — | D+2.8 |
| Minnesota | Lean D | D 61% | D+4.2 | D+4.2 |
| New Mexico | Lean D | D 65% | D+6.0 | D+6.0 |
| Maine | Lean D | D 68% | D+6.9 | D+6.9 |
| Illinois | Likely D | D 76% | D+10.9 | D+10.9 |
| Colorado | Likely D | D 77% | D+11.0 | D+11.0 |
| Ohio | Likely R | R 77% | R+11.2 | R+11.2 |
| New York | Likely D | D 80% | D+12.6 | D+12.6 |
| Florida | Likely R | R 81% | R+13.1 | R+13.1 |
| Iowa | Likely R | R 81% | R+13.2 | R+13.2 |
| Arizona | Lean D | D 81% | — | R+5.5 |
| Wisconsin | Lean D | D 81% | — | R+0.9 |
| Rhode Island | Likely D | D 82% | D+13.8 | D+13.8 |
| Oregon | Likely D | D 83% | D+14.3 | D+14.3 |
| Connecticut | Likely D | D 83% | D+14.5 | D+14.5 |
| South Carolina | Safe R | R 88% | R+17.9 | R+17.9 |
| California | Safe D | D 91% | D+20.1 | D+20.1 |
| Nebraska | Safe R | R 91% | R+20.5 | R+20.5 |
| Hawaii | Safe D | D 94% | D+23.1 | D+23.1 |
| Massachusetts | Safe D | D 95% | D+25.2 | D+25.2 |
| Pennsylvania | Safe D | D 96% | — | R+1.7 |
| Texas | Safe R | R 96% | — | R+13.7 |
| Vermont | Safe R | R 96% | — | D+31.5 |
| Maryland | Safe D | D 97% | D+28.5 | D+28.5 |
| South Dakota | Safe R | R 97% | R+29.2 | R+29.2 |
| Tennessee | Safe R | R 98% | R+29.7 | R+29.7 |
| Alabama | Safe R | R 98% | R+30.5 | R+30.5 |
| Arkansas | Safe R | R 98% | R+30.6 | R+30.6 |
| Oklahoma | Safe R | R 99% | R+34.3 | R+34.3 |
| Idaho | Safe R | R 99% | R+36.5 | R+36.5 |
| Wyoming | Safe R | R 100% | R+45.8 | R+45.8 |