The 36 governorships on the 2026 ballot, rated into a 50-state statehouse outlook.

Democrats are favored to hold a majority of statehouses — 67.9%

Democrats hold

67.9%

Republicans hold

23.2%

Even split

8.9%

Predicted Democratic seats

80% range 22–31

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Florida.

Every race, most competitive first

Each row is the matchup (or the upcoming primary date), our race rating, the market’s implied odds where Polymarket is trading the race (with the points it differs from our model), and how the seat has voted for president across the last five cycles. Follow a race for the full call and its place page.

Race	Candidates	Rating	Market	Presidential margin
Alaska	Primary 08/18/26	Tilt D	—	’08R+22’12R+14’16R+15’20R+10’24R+13
Florida	Primary 08/18/26	Tilt D	Republican 83%≠ 41

How these ratings become probabilities → · The certified Governors record →