AkashicNevada — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 55% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Joe LombardoRIncumbentNominee |
| Aaron FordDNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), elected 2022, is eligible for a second term and won his primary (~91%). Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford won the Democratic primary (~64%) over Alexis Hill. Widely rated the most competitive 2026 governor's race with a GOP incumbent; Ford would be Nevada's first Black governor. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NV state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joe LombardoR | R+2 |
| 2018 | Steve SisolakD | D+4 |
| 2014 | Brian SandovalR | R+47 |
| 2010 | Brian SandovalR | R+12 |
| 2006 | Jim GibbonsR | R+4 |
| 2002 | Kenny GuinnR | R+46 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →