AkashicThe election-night desk
Foresight updates from validated official results. A probability is not a race call. A formal projection appears only after a human approves the model recommendation, and every correction remains part of the public record.
Akashic Foresight is in private rehearsal. No election-night probabilities are public.
Built, gated, and not yet activated
The model, evidence ledger, publication policy, private decision desk, correction record, public reader, readiness contract, replay tools, and operator runbook exist. Publication stays closed until every declared contest and protected production control passes its fail-closed gate.
| Office | Contests | Configured | Machine feed | Owner capture | Grounded prior | Valid roster | Night-ready |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | 35 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| Governor | 36 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| U.S. House | 435 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- Contests without an ingest configuration · 489
- Contests without a machine feed or documented owner-capture path · 489
- Contests without a grounded candidate-level prior · 489
- Contests without salience/control/competitiveness classification · 489
- Contests whose recount rule has not been verified against primary law · 292
- Contests without a valid candidate roster · 505
- Contests that are neither night-ready nor covered by a published refusal rule · 2
- Keep the public switch disabled until all activation gates pass
- One or more protected production controls are incomplete
Evidence before probability
Validated source captures become immutable evidence events, then observed votes, expected outstanding votes, model intervals, and publication verdicts. A broken evidence chain blocks the probability instead of being hidden.
Probability is not a projection
A contest probability can appear only after feed, evidence, audit, roster, prior, and policy checks pass. A formal race projection remains a separate human-approved state with an append-only retraction and correction trail.
Coverage, rehearsal, and supervision
The current ledger must be regenerated, every contest must become night-ready, the persistent runner and alerts must be supervised in production, and a dress rehearsal must pass before the explicit public switch can be enabled.
The pre-election 2026 forecast remains available. This page activates only when the production results ledger is running and publication gates have evaluated real election-night data.
The public surface excludes exact model inputs, priors, seeds, parameters, internal stress cases, source bodies, operator identities, and private rationale text. It includes only the evidence-backed probability record and the append-only human projection/correction state.
Read the forecast methodology and the public scorecard for the pre-election model and its evaluation rules.