Name: 2026 U.S. House forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

All 435 districts on the 2026 lines, rated and simulated into a seat distribution and a probability of House control.

Democrats are favored to control the House — 79.1%

Democrats control

79.1%

Republicans control

20.9%

Predicted Democratic seats

241

80% range 201–279

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: WI-03.

Model vs. market · control of the House

Akashic modelDemocratic 79%MarketDemocratic 86%agree · 7 pts apart

Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →

Every district, by rating

All 435 districts placed along the rating spectrum — Safe Democratic on the left through to Safe Republican on the right. Each card is the matchup (or the upcoming primary date) and the seat’s 2024 presidential lean; a cyan edge marks a district projected to flip party, and a cyan market dot marks a district where the prediction market disagrees with our call. Follow a race for the full call, its market odds, and its place page.

Safe D2035 flips

CA-48flipD+3DesmondvWilpert CA-03flipD+10BeravTucker CA-01flipD+12McGuirevGallagher*CA-41flipD+14

How these ratings become probabilities → · The certified U.S. House record →