AkashicFL-25 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 62% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 21-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jared MoskowitzD | |
| Scott SingerR | |
| Raven HarrisonR | |
| George MoraitisR | |
| Joseph KaufmanR | |
| Dan FranzeseR |
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-25 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+9 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+10 |
| 2020 | — | — |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+25 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+100 |
Two-party margin (D−R) of each contest, most recent first. District lines were redrawn over this span, so earlier results ran on different boundaries than the 2026 seat.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →