Akashic / forecast

The 2026 forecast

Name: 2026 US midterm forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

One committed expectation for the 2026 midterms — every Senate, House, and Governor race rated by hand, expressed as calibrated win probabilities and a simulated seat distribution, and scored in public when the results land. Grounded in the same record as the rest of Akashic: 148 years of results, partisan lean, and demographics per place.

U.S. Senate · predicted margin

NHMARINJDE

Each state with a 2026 Senate race, filled by the favored party’s predicted margin · hover for the rating and win probability · forecast, not a result

The three chambers

U.S. Senate →

Democrats are favored to control Senate control — 57.9%

Democrats control

57.9%

Republicans control

31.0%

Even split

11.1%

Predicted Democratic seats

80% range 47–56

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Michigan.

U.S. House →

Democrats are favored to control House control — 71.5%

Democrats control

71.5%

Republicans control

28.5%

Predicted Democratic seats

230

80% range 197–261

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: IA-03.

Governors →

Republicans are favored to hold a majority of statehouses — 56.9%

Democrats hold

34.4%

Republicans hold

56.9%

Even split

8.6%

Predicted Democratic seats

80% range 17–29

Tipping-point raceThe seat that delivers the majority in the median path: Kansas.

Ratings are set by editorial judgment and expressed probabilistically; the seat distribution is a 50,000-run Monte-Carlo with a correlated national-swing error. See the methodology for the calibration, the simulation, and how every call will be scored.