AkashicNY-21 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 80% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 38-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Anthony ConstantinoRNominee | |
| Blake GendebienDNominee | |
| Robert SmullenConservative |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. OPEN SEAT: incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik is not seeking re-election. Businessman Anthony Constantino won the Republican primary; Democrat Blake Gendebien is the nominee. Former state Assemblyman Robert Smullen runs on the Conservative line. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the NY-21 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+10 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+28 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →