HarrisDemocratic39.5%140,767TrumpRepublican60.2%214,520OtherAll other candidates0.2%888
R+20.7- Lead
- 73,753
- Total
- 356,175
- vs nation
- R+19.2
modeled Census-place estimatereview required
Akashiccongressional district
New York 21st Congressional District
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic41.2%146,559TrumpRepublican56.8%202,035OtherAll other candidates2.0%7,217
R+15.6- Lead
- 55,476
- Total
- 355,811
- vs nation
- R+20.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic37.1%116,608TrumpRepublican55.7%174,844OtherAll other candidates7.2%22,624
R+18.5- Lead
- 58,236
- Total
- 314,076
- vs nation
- R+20.6
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic49.5%146,001RomneyRepublican48.7%143,691OtherAll other candidates1.9%5,479
D+0.8- Lead
- 2,310
- Total
- 295,171
- vs nation
- R+3.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic49.1%158,461McCainRepublican49.3%159,148OtherAll other candidates1.6%5,263
R+0.2- Lead
- 687
- Total
- 322,872
- vs nation
- R+7.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic43.9%143,263BushRepublican53.9%175,898OtherAll other candidates2.1%6,945
R+10.0- Lead
- 32,635
- Total
- 326,106
- vs nation
- R+7.5
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic44.1%136,595BushRepublican50.7%156,774OtherAll other candidates5.2%16,027
R+6.5- Lead
- 20,179
- Total
- 309,396
- vs nation
- R+7.0
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic46.1%136,210DoleRepublican38.3%113,024OtherAll other candidates15.6%45,931
D+7.9- Lead
- 23,186
- Total
- 295,165
- vs nation
- R+0.7
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 777,0972024 5-year
- Population density
- 48 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 16,289 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $70,9832024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+31.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+51.5 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 24, NY · twin score 90.6
presidential history
Party record book
New York 21st Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2020 (partial returns from 1876) · 37 presidential cycles · 37 with a vote-share denominator · 33 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
65.6%
188,927 votes · D+31.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · 49.5%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
75.7%
231,312 votes · R+51.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 71.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
188,927votes
65.6% of the vote · D+31.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 158,461 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
231,312votes
75.7% of the vote · R+51.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 214,333 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
+8.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+31.3 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · −0.7 pts
Republican
Alf Landon1936
+47.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+23.5 · U.S. D+24.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1932 · +38.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
U.S. House elections · 25 House
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
New York's 21st congressional district, as drawn for the 2026 elections, takes in St. Lawrence, Warren, and Clinton counties and parts of Saratoga and Oneida. About 777,100 people live within its 2026 boundaries, with a median age of 42.4. Measured on those boundaries, the district voted Democratic for president early in the decade and Republican in 2024. The margin was D+0.8 in 2012, R+18.6 in 2016, R+15.6 in 2020, and R+20.7 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 51.5 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 5.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.7 points.
A population of 777,097, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $70,983 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 24 and Congressional District 5.
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Congressional District 24
New York
90.6twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectory% White≠ French ancestry
Congressional District 5
Michigan
83.4twin score
12-yr trendelasticity% unaffiliated≠ French ancestry
Congressional District 1
Michigan
83.0twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
New York 21st Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/3621/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did New York 21st Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, New York 21st Congressional District voted Republican by 20.7 points (R+20.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 356,175 votes cast, 140,767 went Democratic and 214,520 went Republican.
When did New York 21st Congressional District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which New York 21st Congressional District voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in New York 21st Congressional District?
New York 21st Congressional District has a population of 777,097 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in New York 21st Congressional District?
Median household income in New York 21st Congressional District is $70,983 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of New York 21st Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in New York 21st Congressional District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 35 went Republican.