New York 21st Congressional District (NY) — Elections 1876–2024

New York 21st Congressional District, New York: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+15%. Republican peak: R+48 in 1956.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+15MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 846,9292024 5-year
Median household income: $72,2952024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 87.5%2024 5-year
Black: 3.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 4.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+37 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+48 in 1956MIT Election Lab

STEFANIK, Elise M.Congress 119 · Republican

−1 liberal

+1 conservative

Predecessors: OWENS, William (2013–2015), TONKO, Paul (2011–2013), TONKO, Paul (2009–2011), McNULTY, Michael Robert (2007–2009)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county

15 counties · 2 D · 13 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−14.6%	168,003	226,130	396,968
2020	R	−9.7%	175,132	213,538	396,649
2016	R	−13.2%	140,520	187,206	353,159
2012	D	+6.5%	174,780	153,103	334,596
2008	D	+5.1%	189,259	170,710	366,370
2004	R	−4.4%	172,260	188,359	368,796
2000	R	−0.8%	164,004	166,746	349,131
1996	D	+12.9%	163,758	120,300	336,830
1992	R	−1.0%	141,388	145,177	370,612
1988	R	−10.9%	149,637	186,692	339,178
1984	R	−31.3%	119,614	228,932	349,753
1980	R	−10.4%	133,548	168,336	335,057
1976	R	−16.8%	139,051	195,505	336,389
1972	R	−35.1%	111,971	233,472	346,278
1968	R	−15.2%	128,358	177,232	321,105
1964	D	+36.9%	234,668	108,071	343,015
1960	R	−12.9%	160,333	207,818	368,425
1956	R	−48.4%	92,456	265,839	358,296
1952	R	−37.3%	114,414	250,710	365,779
1948	R	−20.1%	123,280	187,569	319,533
1944	R	−16.4%	134,295	186,975	321,929
1940	R	−18.7%	143,313	209,577	353,558
1936	R	−18.4%	137,194	200,229	343,069
1932	R	−14.8%	133,071	179,849	316,281
1928	R	−21.4%	126,238	195,820	325,660
1924	R	−35.8%	72,704	163,094	252,265
1920	R	−37.8%	72,996	166,842	248,374
1916	R	−15.5%	64,500	89,001	157,597
1912	R	−4.4%	54,538	61,147	151,115
1908	R	−22.1%	61,650	98,800	167,958
1904	R	−24.8%	61,018	103,375	170,702
1900	R	−24.6%	61,247	102,647	168,605
1896	R	−27.0%	57,702	101,923	163,869
1892	R	−10.8%	67,126	84,443	160,204
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year	Won	D %	R %	Total
2024	D	56.2%	38.7%	8,381,397
2022	D	51.7%	37.7%	5,848,556
2018	D	62.0%	28.6%	6,055,151
2016	D	61.3%	22.1%	7,800,725
2012	D	62.1%	21.3%	7,116,628
2010	D	64.0%	26.0%	4,763,899
2006	D	57.4%	25.8%	4,700,632
2004	D	58.9%	21.8%	7,447,818
2000	D	51.2%	39.1%	6,959,662
1998	D	47.8%	33.7%	4,989,877
1994	D	47.5%	32.1%	5,328,486
1992	D	41.6%	37.5%	7,078,805
1988	D	64.7%	27.9%	6,040,980
1986	R	38.4%	45.3%	4,484,859
1982	D	62.2%	28.5%	4,967,729
1980	D	43.5%	37.8%	6,014,914
1976	D	48.6%	37.9%	6,666,875

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

Irish

17.8%

German

13.4%

English

12.6%

Italian

10.3%

French

7.2%

American

5.8%

Polish

3.4%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 42.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.8%

85+

1.5%

2.7%

75–84

3.2%

6.0%

65–74

6.2%

7.2%

55–64

7.3%

6.1%

45–54

5.8%

6.2%

35–44

5.8%

6.4%

25–34

5.7%

5.2%

18–24

4.6%

7.5%

5–17

7.0%

2.4%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$72,295

Congressional District 21 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Congressional District 21$72,295

New York$85,974

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

13.2%

Children face moderate poverty.

Children under 1817.3%

Working age (18–64)12.4%

Seniors (65+)10.9%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

93.8%

speak English only

Other Indo-European2.8%

Spanish2.2%

Asian & Pacific Islander0.8%

Other languages0.4%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

21.9%

Other Christian

5.6%

Methodist

3.1%

Mainline Protestant

2.6%

Baptist

1.1%

Pentecostal & Holiness

0.8%

Non-Christian

0.5%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 64.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Spanning rural upstate terrain from the North Country to the Catskills fringe, NY-21 delivered a 15-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, reflecting a pattern of conservative-leaning performance across its small-town and agricultural communities.

The Democratic margin in New York 21st Congressional District has rarely exceeded thirty-seven points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-eight points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by fifteen points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 88% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $72,295 — all within the broad national range.

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Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Congressional District 21, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/3621/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 21, New York vote in 2024?

In 2024, Congressional District 21, New York voted Republican by 14.6 points (R+15), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 396,968 votes cast, 168,003 went Democratic and 226,130 went Republican.

What is Congressional District 21, New York's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Congressional District 21, New York as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 4 times, Republican 30 times, and other 0 times.

When did Congressional District 21, New York last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 21, New York voted Democratic was 2012.

How many people live in Congressional District 21, New York?

Congressional District 21, New York has a population of 846,929 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Congressional District 21, New York?

Median household income in Congressional District 21, New York is $72,295 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.

What is the political history of Congressional District 21, New York?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 21, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 30 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

New York 21st Congressional District delivered R+15 in 2024.

Key facts

U.S. Senate

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions