HarrisDemocratic38.1%16,326TrumpRepublican61.7%26,417OtherAll other candidates0.2%100
R+23.6- Lead
- 10,091
- Total
- 42,843
- vs nation
- R+22.1
- Turnout
- 50.1%
Akashiccounty
Jefferson County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 50.1% of 85,554 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic39.5%17,307TrumpRepublican58.4%25,629JorgensenLibertarian1.2%537
R+19.0- Lead
- 8,322
- Total
- 43,855
- vs nation
- R+23.4
- Turnout
- 60.0%
ClintonDemocratic36.1%13,809TrumpRepublican56.9%21,763JohnsonLibertarian4.4%1,670
R+20.8- Lead
- 7,954
- Total
- 38,236
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- 43.9%
ObamaDemocratic47.9%17,099RomneyRepublican50.8%18,122JohnsonLibertarian0.8%271
R+2.9- Lead
- 1,023
- Total
- 35,708
- vs nation
- R+6.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.7%18,166McCainRepublican52.0%20,220OtherAll other candidates1.3%500
R+5.3- Lead
- 2,054
- Total
- 38,886
- vs nation
- R+12.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic43.5%16,860BushRepublican54.7%21,231OtherAll other candidates1.8%709
R+11.3- Lead
- 4,371
- Total
- 38,800
- vs nation
- R+8.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.1%16,799BushRepublican49.9%18,192NaderGreen2.8%1,029
R+3.8- Lead
- 1,393
- Total
- 36,423
- vs nation
- R+4.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.2%16,783DoleRepublican36.2%12,362PerotReform13.4%4,561
D+13.0- Lead
- 4,421
- Total
- 34,127
- vs nation
- D+4.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+23.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 115,0402024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,3012024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 80.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+40.3 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.1 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Oswego County, NY · twin score 81.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 50.1%42,843 participants ÷ 85,554 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.5 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 26.6%–34.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 38,236 | 87,028 | 43.9% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 30,932 | 84,827 | 36.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 49,674 | 82,810 | 60.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 31,957 | 87,544 | 36.5% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 42,843 | 85,554 | 50.1% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
65 precincts · 43,050 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 1400001360451400001 | 505 | 903 | 10 | 1,418 | 35.6% | 63.7% | R+28.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0800003360450800003 | 401 | 947 | 7 | 1,355 | 29.6% | 69.9% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct 2013001360452013001 | 636 | 603 | 14 | 1,253 | 50.8% | 48.1% | D+2.6 |
| Precinct 0600001360450600001 | 375 | 870 | 6 | 1,251 | 30.0% | 69.5% | R+39.6 |
| Precinct 1900001360451900001 | 384 | 822 | 10 | 1,216 | 31.6% | 67.6% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct 2012001360452012001 | 581 | 573 | 19 | 1,173 | 49.5% | 48.8% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct 2100002360452100002 | 494 | 665 | 5 | 1,164 | 42.4% | 57.1% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct 0400002360450400002 | 357 | 783 | 10 | 1,150 | 31.0% | 68.1% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct 2100003360452100003 | 394 | 743 | 13 | 1,150 | 34.3% | 64.6% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct 2015001360452015001 | 541 | 594 | 14 | 1,149 | 47.1% | 51.7% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct 0100003360450100003 | 396 | 715 | 6 | 1,117 | 35.5% | 64.0% | R+28.6 |
| Precinct 1300002360451300002 | 427 | 684 | 3 | 1,114 | 38.3% | 61.4% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct 2013002360452013002 | 510 | 579 | 10 | 1,099 | 46.4% | 52.7% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct 1800002360451800002 | 268 | 780 | 6 | 1,054 | 25.4% | 74.0% | R+48.6 |
| Precinct 1500002360451500002 | 361 | 654 | 2 | 1,017 | 35.5% | 64.3% | R+28.8 |
| Precinct 0500002360450500002 | 338 | 582 | 9 | 929 | 36.4% | 62.6% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct 0700002360450700002 | 380 | 544 | 5 | 929 | 40.9% | 58.6% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct 2200003360452200003 | 393 | 531 | 5 | 929 | 42.3% | 57.2% | R+14.9 |
| Precinct 2015002360452015002 | 408 | 501 | 8 | 917 | 44.5% | 54.6% | R+10.1 |
| Precinct 2012003360452012003 | 497 | 406 | 13 | 916 | 54.3% | 44.3% | D+9.9 |
| Precinct 0900001360450900001 | 348 | 547 | 12 | 907 | 38.4% | 60.3% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct 2200002360452200002 | 219 | 675 | 3 | 897 | 24.4% | 75.3% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct 0700001360450700001 | 443 | 445 | 8 | 896 | 49.4% | 49.7% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct 2012002360452012002 | 464 | 425 | 7 | 896 | 51.8% | 47.4% | D+4.4 |
| Precinct 1100008360451100008 | 364 | 523 | 7 | 894 | 40.7% | 58.5% | R+17.8 |
| Precinct 1100003360451100003 | 334 | 528 | 3 | 865 | 38.6% | 61.0% | R+22.4 |
| Precinct 1000002360451000002 | 310 | 538 | 6 | 854 | 36.3% | 63.0% | R+26.7 |
| Precinct 0200003360450200003 | 267 | 578 | 3 | 848 | 31.5% | 68.2% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct 1000001360451000001 | 445 | 368 | 8 | 821 | 54.2% | 44.8% | D+9.4 |
| Precinct 0700003360450700003 | 218 | 578 | 9 | 805 | 27.1% | 71.8% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct 0100001360450100001 | 333 | 456 | 7 | 796 | 41.8% | 57.3% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct 0200002360450200002 | 272 | 436 | 6 | 714 | 38.1% | 61.1% | R+23.0 |
| Precinct 0400005360450400005 | 238 | 448 | 4 | 690 | 34.5% | 64.9% | R+30.4 |
| Precinct 1700001360451700001 | 149 | 483 | 4 | 636 | 23.4% | 75.9% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct 0600002360450600002 | 222 | 365 | 5 | 592 | 37.5% | 61.7% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct 1500001360451500001 | 131 | 444 | 5 | 580 | 22.6% | 76.6% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct 2014001360452014001 | 265 | 308 | 2 | 575 | 46.1% | 53.6% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct 0100002360450100002 | 188 | 364 | 3 | 555 | 33.9% | 65.6% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct 1200001360451200001 | 125 | 382 | 1 | 508 | 24.6% | 75.2% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct 1100001360451100001 | 149 | 335 | 11 | 495 | 30.1% | 67.7% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct 0200001360450200001 | 234 | 240 | 1 | 475 | 49.3% | 50.5% | R+1.3 |
| Precinct 0400004360450400004 | 189 | 268 | 2 | 459 | 41.2% | 58.4% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct 0500001360450500001 | 212 | 225 | 2 | 439 | 48.3% | 51.3% | R+3.0 |
| Precinct 0400003360450400003 | 151 | 269 | 4 | 424 | 35.6% | 63.4% | R+27.8 |
| Precinct 0300002360450300002 | 106 | 297 | 0 | 403 | 26.3% | 73.7% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct 1600001360451600001 | 147 | 239 | 1 | 387 | 38.0% | 61.8% | R+23.8 |
| Precinct 1600002360451600002 | 102 | 268 | 1 | 371 | 27.5% | 72.2% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct 0400001360450400001 | 80 | 234 | 2 | 316 | 25.3% | 74.1% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct 1300001360451300001 | 111 | 195 | 1 | 307 | 36.2% | 63.5% | R+27.4 |
| Precinct 1100007360451100007 | 135 | 168 | 3 | 306 | 44.1% | 54.9% | R+10.8 |
| Precinct 1100009360451100009 | 82 | 143 | 2 | 227 | 36.1% | 63.0% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct 1100002360451100002 | 85 | 138 | 3 | 226 | 37.6% | 61.1% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct 0300001360450300001 | 78 | 141 | 4 | 223 | 35.0% | 63.2% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct 1800001360451800001 | 76 | 112 | 0 | 188 | 40.4% | 59.6% | R+19.1 |
| Precinct 1000003360451000003 | 63 | 109 | 4 | 176 | 35.8% | 61.9% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct 0800002360450800002 | 52 | 120 | 3 | 175 | 29.7% | 68.6% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct 1100006360451100006 | 75 | 92 | 5 | 172 | 43.6% | 53.5% | R+9.9 |
| Precinct 2300001360452300001 | 35 | 119 | 1 | 155 | 22.6% | 76.8% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct 0300003360450300003 | 36 | 91 | 2 | 129 | 27.9% | 70.5% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct 2200001360452200001 | 28 | 78 | 1 | 107 | 26.2% | 72.9% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct 0800001360450800001 | 42 | 64 | 0 | 106 | 39.6% | 60.4% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct 2100001360452100001 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 84 | 50.0% | 48.8% | D+1.2 |
| Precinct 1100004360451100004 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 46 | 28.3% | 71.7% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct 1100005360451100005 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 25 | 32.0% | 64.0% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct 1500003360451500003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −14.7% |
| 1896 | −25.4% |
| 1900 | −26.2% |
| 1904 | −26.9% |
| 1908 | −24.1% |
| 1912 | −3.6% |
| 1916 | −21.5% |
| 1920 | −45.3% |
| 1924 | −43.6% |
| 1928 | −33.9% |
| 1932 | −25.3% |
| 1936 | −27.7% |
| 1940 | −27.3% |
| 1944 | −20.3% |
| 1948 | −19.4% |
| 1952 | −39.8% |
| 1956 | −48.1% |
| 1960 | −21.2% |
| 1964 | +40.3% |
| 1968 | −15.4% |
| 1972 | −33.0% |
| 1976 | −20.3% |
| 1980 | −9.6% |
| 1984 | −36.2% |
| 1988 | −15.4% |
| 1992 | −2.3% |
| 1996 | +13.0% |
| 2000 | −3.8% |
| 2004 | −11.3% |
| 2008 | −5.3% |
| 2012 | −2.9% |
| 2016 | −20.8% |
| 2020 | −19.0% |
| 2024 | −23.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 35.5%13,733 | 64.5%25,002 | 38,735 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+18.4
Presidential vote · 2024R+23.6
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 5.2 points more Democratic.
66,799 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−2,009 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −29,494 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,450 in average income, against $66,133 for residents who stayed — 24% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+2.0 on average — 22 points more Democratic-leaning than Jefferson County, NY itself (R+23.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lewis County, NY149R+44.4
- St. Lawrence County, NY120R+18.0
- Onondaga County, NY114D+17.2
- El Paso County, CO86R+9.8
- Oswego County, NY79R+24.1
- Honolulu County, HI73D+21.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Onondaga County, NY154
- Lewis County, NY140
- St. Lawrence County, NY113
- Honolulu County, HI103
- El Paso County, CO83
- Oswego County, NY80
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −201 |
| 2012 | +30 |
| 2013 | −3,734 |
| 2014 | −2,166 |
| 2015 | −3,474 |
| 2016 | −4,804 |
| 2017 | −972 |
| 2018 | −2,147 |
| 2019 | −2,981 |
| 2021 | +78 |
| 2022 | −2,526 |
| 2023 | −3,214 |
| 2024 | −1,374 |
| 2025 | −2,009 |
Jefferson County's large active-duty military population at Fort Drum shapes both its demographics and its electoral patterns, contributing to a consistent Republican margin that reached double digits well before 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 40.3 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 48.1 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.6 points.
A population of 115,040, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,301 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Oswego County and Cortland County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Oswego County
New York
81.5twin score
% Evangelicalpopulation scale2000–2012 trajectory≠ median age
Cortland County
New York
81.4twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliated2000–2012 trajectory≠ French ancestry
Otsego County
New York
79.8twin score
% Evangelical% unaffiliated2000–2012 trajectory≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Jefferson County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36045/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Jefferson County
New York at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Jefferson County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Jefferson County, New York voted Republican by 23.6 points (R+23.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 42,843 votes cast, 16,326 went Democratic and 26,417 went Republican.
When did Jefferson County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Jefferson County, New York voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Jefferson County, New York?
Jefferson County, New York has a population of 115,040 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Jefferson County, New York?
Median household income in Jefferson County, New York is $66,301 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Jefferson County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Jefferson County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 32 went Republican.