HarrisDemocratic31.7%9,110TrumpRepublican68.1%19,557OtherAll other candidates0.2%58
R+36.4- Lead
- 10,447
- Total
- 28,725
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- 61.7%
Akashiccounty
Herkimer County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 61.7% of 47,068 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic33.9%9,939TrumpRepublican64.4%18,871JorgensenLibertarian1.0%298
R+30.5- Lead
- 8,932
- Total
- 29,322
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- 60.4%
ClintonDemocratic30.8%8,083TrumpRepublican63.6%16,699JohnsonLibertarian3.8%1,002
R+32.8- Lead
- 8,616
- Total
- 26,255
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- 52.9%
ObamaDemocratic45.0%11,273RomneyRepublican53.0%13,282JohnsonLibertarian1.0%259
R+8.0- Lead
- 2,009
- Total
- 25,040
- vs nation
- R+11.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic44.5%12,094McCainRepublican53.8%14,619OtherAll other candidates1.7%471
R+9.3- Lead
- 2,525
- Total
- 27,184
- vs nation
- R+16.6
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic41.2%11,675BushRepublican56.6%16,024OtherAll other candidates2.2%611
R+15.4- Lead
- 4,349
- Total
- 28,310
- vs nation
- R+12.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic44.1%12,224BushRepublican51.1%14,147NaderGreen3.5%969
R+6.9- Lead
- 1,923
- Total
- 27,705
- vs nation
- R+7.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic44.7%11,910DoleRepublican37.9%10,085PerotReform15.9%4,235
D+6.9- Lead
- 1,825
- Total
- 26,626
- vs nation
- R+1.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 59,7572024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,5152024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 90.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.4 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Fulton County, NY · twin score 95.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 61.7%29,024 participants ÷ 47,068 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -8.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 48.9%–52.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 26,255 | 49,623 | 52.9% | C/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 22,970 | 48,978 | 46.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 29,319 | 48,519 | 60.4% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 22,559 | 47,360 | 47.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 29,024 | 47,068 | 61.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
44 precincts · 28,833 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0400004360430400004 | 394 | 1,050 | 13 | 1,457 | 27.0% | 72.1% | R+45.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0400003360430400003 | 394 | 887 | 6 | 1,287 | 30.6% | 68.9% | R+38.3 |
| Precinct 0500006360430500006 | 483 | 742 | 13 | 1,238 | 39.0% | 59.9% | R+20.9 |
| Precinct 0500008360430500008 | 408 | 781 | 8 | 1,197 | 34.1% | 65.2% | R+31.2 |
| Precinct 0500003360430500003 | 392 | 763 | 6 | 1,161 | 33.8% | 65.7% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct 0600005360430600005 | 439 | 690 | 7 | 1,136 | 38.6% | 60.7% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct 0600001360430600001 | 336 | 711 | 5 | 1,052 | 31.9% | 67.6% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct 1000001360431000001 | 286 | 753 | 8 | 1,047 | 27.3% | 71.9% | R+44.6 |
| Precinct 1900001360431900001 | 453 | 551 | 7 | 1,011 | 44.8% | 54.5% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct 2000001360432000001 | 307 | 668 | 3 | 978 | 31.4% | 68.3% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct 1600001360431600001 | 272 | 674 | 7 | 953 | 28.5% | 70.7% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct 1100001360431100001 | 245 | 692 | 4 | 941 | 26.0% | 73.5% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct 1400001360431400001 | 262 | 610 | 7 | 879 | 29.8% | 69.4% | R+39.6 |
| Precinct 0900001360430900001 | 227 | 589 | 0 | 816 | 27.8% | 72.2% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct 0700001360430700001 | 173 | 619 | 5 | 797 | 21.7% | 77.7% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct 0300001360430300001 | 164 | 605 | 0 | 769 | 21.3% | 78.7% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct 0100001360430100001 | 135 | 590 | 0 | 725 | 18.6% | 81.4% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct 1500001360431500001 | 121 | 585 | 0 | 706 | 17.1% | 82.9% | R+65.7 |
| Precinct 1600002360431600002 | 203 | 491 | 0 | 694 | 29.3% | 70.7% | R+41.5 |
| Precinct 0600004360430600004 | 225 | 441 | 5 | 671 | 33.5% | 65.7% | R+32.2 |
| Precinct 0802001360430802001 | 352 | 310 | 0 | 662 | 53.2% | 46.8% | D+6.3 |
| Precinct 1300001360431300001 | 120 | 478 | 3 | 601 | 20.0% | 79.5% | R+59.6 |
| Precinct 0600003360430600003 | 229 | 307 | 8 | 544 | 42.1% | 56.4% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct 0801001360430801001 | 264 | 270 | 0 | 534 | 49.4% | 50.6% | R+1.1 |
| Precinct 1800001360431800001 | 125 | 360 | 6 | 491 | 25.5% | 73.3% | R+47.9 |
| Precinct 0600002360430600002 | 202 | 273 | 8 | 483 | 41.8% | 56.5% | R+14.7 |
| Precinct 0200001360430200001 | 100 | 365 | 0 | 465 | 21.5% | 78.5% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct 0400002360430400002 | 154 | 301 | 5 | 460 | 33.5% | 65.4% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct 0500002360430500002 | 147 | 287 | 2 | 436 | 33.7% | 65.8% | R+32.1 |
| Precinct 1200001360431200001 | 90 | 345 | 0 | 435 | 20.7% | 79.3% | R+58.6 |
| Precinct 0803001360430803001 | 207 | 211 | 5 | 423 | 48.9% | 49.9% | R+0.9 |
| Precinct 0400001360430400001 | 110 | 299 | 4 | 413 | 26.6% | 72.4% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct 0500004360430500004 | 149 | 254 | 3 | 406 | 36.7% | 62.6% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct 1400002360431400002 | 86 | 285 | 2 | 373 | 23.1% | 76.4% | R+53.4 |
| Precinct 0500007360430500007 | 116 | 239 | 0 | 355 | 32.7% | 67.3% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct 0500005360430500005 | 119 | 215 | 4 | 338 | 35.2% | 63.6% | R+28.4 |
| Precinct 1000002360431000002 | 114 | 220 | 0 | 334 | 34.1% | 65.9% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct 1700001360431700001 | 111 | 218 | 5 | 334 | 33.2% | 65.3% | R+32.0 |
| Precinct 0804001360430804001 | 148 | 177 | 5 | 330 | 44.8% | 53.6% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct 0500001360430500001 | 57 | 170 | 0 | 227 | 25.1% | 74.9% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct 1500002360431500002 | 47 | 178 | 0 | 225 | 20.9% | 79.1% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct 1900002360431900002 | 90 | 121 | 2 | 213 | 42.3% | 56.8% | R+14.6 |
| Precinct 0100002360430100002 | 18 | 104 | 0 | 122 | 14.8% | 85.2% | R+70.5 |
| Precinct 1100002360431100002 | 36 | 78 | 0 | 114 | 31.6% | 68.4% | R+36.8 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −5.6% |
| 1896 | −22.7% |
| 1900 | −19.2% |
| 1904 | −17.0% |
| 1908 | −15.6% |
| 1912 | +3.4% |
| 1916 | −11.4% |
| 1920 | −35.6% |
| 1924 | −38.9% |
| 1928 | −26.8% |
| 1932 | −14.8% |
| 1936 | −10.6% |
| 1940 | −14.9% |
| 1944 | −11.7% |
| 1948 | −7.4% |
| 1952 | −28.7% |
| 1956 | −43.4% |
| 1960 | −8.5% |
| 1964 | +32.9% |
| 1968 | −15.4% |
| 1972 | −36.0% |
| 1976 | −8.8% |
| 1980 | −9.4% |
| 1984 | −29.0% |
| 1988 | −8.6% |
| 1992 | −3.9% |
| 1996 | +6.9% |
| 2000 | −6.9% |
| 2004 | −15.4% |
| 2008 | −9.3% |
| 2012 | −8.0% |
| 2016 | −32.8% |
| 2020 | −30.5% |
| 2024 | −36.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 29.4%7,347 | 70.6%17,603 | 24,950 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+26.1
Presidential vote · 2024R+36.4
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 10 points more Democratic.
42,452 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+84 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −2,682 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,165 in average income, against $66,760 for residents who stayed — 19% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+19.7 on average — 17 points more Democratic-leaning than Herkimer County, NY itself (R+36.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Oneida County, NY420R+21.2
- Otsego County, NY72R+7.8
- Fulton County, NY67R+35.8
- Montgomery County, NY51R+28.6
- Onondaga County, NY32D+17.2
- Madison County, NY24R+13.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Oneida County, NY459
- Otsego County, NY61
- Fulton County, NY55
- Onondaga County, NY50
- Montgomery County, NY38
- Madison County, NY28
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −141 |
| 2012 | −184 |
| 2013 | −326 |
| 2014 | −497 |
| 2015 | −673 |
| 2016 | −154 |
| 2017 | −206 |
| 2018 | −353 |
| 2019 | −297 |
| 2021 | +103 |
| 2022 | −164 |
| 2023 | +98 |
| 2024 | +28 |
| 2025 | +84 |
Herkimer's population of roughly 64,000 spans the Mohawk Valley and Adirondack foothills, and its 2024 presidential margin of R+36.4 reflects a long-running rural realignment that has widened steadily over successive election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 43.4 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.4 points.
A population of 59,757, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,515 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fulton County and Oswego County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Fulton County
New York
95.1twin score
Italian ancestry% Evangelical12-yr trend≠ Irish ancestry
Oswego County
New York
90.5twin score
12-yr trend% EvangelicalItalian ancestry
Chenango County
New York
88.0twin score
% Evangelical12-yr trend% White≠ Italian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Herkimer County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36043/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Herkimer County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Herkimer County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Herkimer County, New York voted Republican by 36.4 points (R+36.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 28,725 votes cast, 9,110 went Democratic and 19,557 went Republican.
When did Herkimer County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Herkimer County, New York voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Herkimer County, New York?
Herkimer County, New York has a population of 59,757 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Herkimer County, New York?
Median household income in Herkimer County, New York is $68,515 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Herkimer County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Herkimer County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 31 went Republican.