AkashicOhio — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 55% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 51-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Vivek RamaswamyRNominee |
| Amy ActonDNominee |
Declared candidates. OPEN seat: incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited (no third consecutive term). Vivek Ramaswamy won the Republican primary (Trump-endorsed; only nominal opposition). Former Ohio Dept. of Health director Amy Acton won the Democratic primary unopposed. Earlier-speculated Democrats Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown did not run. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the OH state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Mike DewineR | R+25 |
| 2018 | Mike Dewine And Jon HustedR | R+4 |
| 2014 | John KasichR | R+31 |
| 2010 | John KasichR | R+2 |
| 2006 | Ted StricklandD | D+24 |
| 2002 | Bob TaftR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | Ramaswamy 48·Acton 47 | R+1 |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | Apr 7–14 | 1,000 RV | Ramaswamy 48·Acton 47 | R+1 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 413 LV | Ramaswamy 49·Acton 44 | R+5 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 413 LV |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →