AkashicCO-04 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Trump+18 on the presidential line — the reddest Colorado seat — but incumbent Lauren Boebert (R) won 2024 by only 11.6, ~7 pts behind Trump, the weakest GOP showing relative to district lean of any seat in the state. Democratic House-primary participation up 18 pts since 2022. Toughest terrain, weakest incumbent: a narrow D tilt.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 64% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 22-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Eileen LaubacherD | |
| Lauren BoebertRIncumbent |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Lauren Boebert (R) seeking re-election (unopposed in GOP primary) in safe-R Eastern Plains seat. Eileen Laubacher is the Democratic candidate (a write-in, Jenna Preston, also filed on the D side). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+12 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+24 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+32 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →