AkashicCO-03 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
Freshman Jeff Hurd (R) won the open seat by 5 in a Trump+10 district, running ~5 pts behind the presidential line. The 2026 Democratic U.S. House primary share jumped to 48% — up 16 pts on 2022, 11 pts on 2024. A reach, but candidate thinness plus the participation surge tilt it narrowly D.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 66% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 24-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Jeff HurdRIncumbent | |
| Alex KelloffD | |
| Dwayne L. RomeroD | |
| Ron HanksR |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Incumbent Jeff Hurd (R) seeking re-election in lean-R Western Slope seat. Contested GOP primary vs. former state Rep. Ron Hanks; Trump re-endorsed Hurd after challenger Hope Scheppelman withdrew. Contested Democratic primary (Kelloff, Romero). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the CO-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+5 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | even |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+6 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+14 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →