AkashicWI-03 — U.S. House
We expect Democrats to win83%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 67% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Democrats, but the market is less confident — a 17-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Rebecca CookeD | |
| Derrick Van OrdenRIncumbent | |
| Emily BergeD | |
| Rustin ProvanceIndependent | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. One of Wisconsin's most competitive seats (Driftless Area, Eau Claire, La Crosse); Aug 11 primary not yet held. Van Orden (incumbent, 51.4% in 2024) is the presumptive GOP nominee. Democratic primary is between Rebecca Cooke (2024 nominee) and Emily Berge. Rustin Provance (and per Ballotpedia, Jayte Welch) running as independent(s). The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the WI-03 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+3 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+4 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+3 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+19 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+99 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →