AkashicFL-04 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win58%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 80% chance to win.
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 22-point gap.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Aaron BeanRIncumbentPresumptive | |
| Michael KirwanD |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Northeast Florida (Nassau, Clay, part of Duval/Jacksonville suburbs). Incumbent Aaron Bean (R) running, presumptive GOP nominee (minor primary challenger Anthony Valerio). Florida primary is Aug 18, 2026 (NOT yet held). Michael Kirwan (D) is the Democratic fundraising frontrunner but faces a contested primary (Ricky Knoles, Brittney Robinson), so listed as 'candidate'. R-leaning district. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL-04 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+15 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+21 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+22 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+43 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+78 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →