AkashicAlaska — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — U.S. Senate yet.
When a liquid market opens on Polymarket, its raw outcome prices will appear here. We never infer a missing party price or renormalize away independent and Other outcomes.
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Dan SullivanRIncumbentNominee | for against | |
| Mary PeltolaDNominee | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Top-four primary Aug 18; RCV general. Preliminary: ex-Rep. Mary Peltola (D) 48.1%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 42.7%; the 3rd/4th slots (Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Leslie/Heikes by ~17 votes) remain provisional until the Aug 28 count and Aug 31 withdrawal deadline. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races → · The certified U.S. Senate record →