AkashicAlaska — U.S. Senate
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
No prediction market is trading Alaska — U.S. Senate yet.
When a liquid two-party market opens on Polymarket for this race, its implied odds will appear here beside our model. We show only real market prices — never an estimated one.
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Dan SullivanRIncumbentPresumptive | for against | |
| Mary PeltolaD | for |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. Class 2 seat (Dan Sullivan, R) — confirmed; Lisa Murkowski is not up in 2026. Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary (Aug 18, 2026, NOT yet held) then a ranked-choice general. Incumbent Sullivan is the cleared-field frontrunner; former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is the major challenger. A dozen-plus minor candidates also filed; the final four advancing are not yet determined. The general election is decided by ranked-choice voting; this forecast rates the favored outcome and never models the ranked rounds. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the AK state page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+79 |
| 2020 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+33 |
| 2014 | RepublicanR | R+2 |
| 2010 | Independent / other | R+12 |
| 2008 | DemocraticD | D+1 |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | Jun 15–29 | — LV | Sullivan 47·Peltola 45 | R+2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | 1,946 LV | Peltola 52·Sullivan 48 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Apr 16–19 | — LV | Peltola 51·Sullivan 47 | D+4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | Mar 19–22 | 1,283 LV | Peltola 52 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →