AkashicFlorida — Governor
We expect Democrats to win58%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 83% chance to win.
The market and our model disagree: the market leans to the Republicans, our model to the Democrats — a 41-point split worth watching.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Byron DonaldsR |
| Jay CollinsR |
| James FishbackR |
| David JollyD |
| Jerry DemingsD |
Declared candidates. Open seat: incumbent Ron DeSantis (R) is term-limited. The Aug 18 primary has not occurred. GOP: U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is the clear frontrunner (Trump-endorsed) over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback. Democrats: former U.S. Rep. David Jolly is the frontrunner, with Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings second; the Democratic field is large with many voters undecided. No nominees yet. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ron DesantisR | R+19 |
| 2018 | Ron DesantisR | even |
| 2014 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2010 | Rick ScottR | R+1 |
| 2006 | Charlie CristR | R+7 |
| 2002 | Jeb BushR |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Jolly 40·Donalds 40 | even |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | Apr 27–27 | 687 LV | Fishback 43·Jolly 38 | R+5 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Donalds 46·Demings 42 | R+4 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Donalds 47·Jolly 40 |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →