HarrisDemocratic43.0%4,683,038TrumpRepublican56.1%6,110,125SteinGreen Party0.4%43,155
R+13.1- Lead
- 1,427,087
- Total
- 10,893,752
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Turnout
- 68.0%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 22,416,0772024 5-year
- Population density
- 418 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 53,655 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $74,5682024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 50.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 14.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 27.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+75.8 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- New York, NY · twin score 46.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.0%10,999,125 participants ÷ 16,182,911 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 44.8%–50.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 9,613,669 | 14,195,896 | 67.7% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 8,355,817 | 14,724,113 | 56.7% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 11,137,676 | 15,296,734 | 72.8% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,798,866 | 15,698,796 | 49.7% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 10,999,125 | 16,182,911 | 68.0% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Florida · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
82.2%
19,655 votes · D+75.8
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 76.1%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
71.9%
1,857,759 votes · R+44.1
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 65.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
5,297,045votes
47.9% of the vote · R+3.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 4,683,038 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
6,110,125votes
56.1% of the vote · R+13.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 5,668,731 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
+74.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+75.8 · U.S. D+1.7
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +67.3 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
+21.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.1 · U.S. R+23.2
Runner-up · Barry Goldwater, 1964 · +20.3 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governoropen seat
Byron DonaldsnomineeDavid JollynomineeDesmond MeadenomineeJay Collins
Open seat — DeSantis term-limited. Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds won the Aug 18 GOP primary with 47.8% over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins; ex-GOP congressman-turned-Democrat David Jolly won the Dem primary with 61%. Voting-rights advocate Desmond Meade qualified NPA.
U.S. Senate
Ashley MoodynomineeAngie NixonnomineeEddy RojasnomineeAlex Vindmanpresumptive nominee
Special for the remainder of Rubio's term; Moody (appointed Jan 2025) is the sitting incumbent. Moody won the Aug 18 GOP primary ~79.6%; Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman 56.1%-43.9% despite a $16M money gap. UNF poll: Moody 50-42.
U.S. House elections · 571 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 8 · R 20 | 42.0% | 57.9% | 10,327,923 | |
| D 8 · R 20 | 39.6% | 58.3% | 7,332,305 | |
| D 11 · R 15 | 47.2% | 52.3% | 10,464,790 | |
| D 13 · R 14 | 47.1% | 52.3% | 7,021,480 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+8.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+13.1
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 5.1 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 12,876,381 | 4,815,749 | 4,550,146 | 3,447,811 | 62,675 |
| 2018 | 13,396,112 | 4,980,923 | 4,718,846 | 3,585,429 | 110,914 |
| 2019 | 13,508,317 | 4,977,612 | 4,750,402 | 3,635,437 | 144,866 |
| 2020 | 14,607,956 | 5,340,228 | 5,233,242 | 3,807,047 | 227,439 |
| 2021 | 14,284,920 | 5,095,008 | 5,120,076 | 3,816,816 | 253,020 |
| 2023 | 13,540,135 | 4,460,831 | 5,158,753 | 3,607,279 | 313,272 |
| 2024 | 14,278,472 | 4,497,119 | 5,633,700 | 3,719,066 | 428,587 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+22,517 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +2,108,004 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +68,593 |
| 2012 | +103,746 |
| 2013 | +111,585 |
| 2014 | +147,547 |
| 2015 | +197,401 |
| 2016 | +216,749 |
| 2017 | +164,257 |
| 2018 | +135,530 |
| 2019 | +133,910 |
| 2021 | +253,220 |
| 2022 | +310,892 |
| 2023 | +183,646 |
| 2024 | +58,411 |
| 2025 | +22,517 |
A quarter-century tossup that decided 2000 by 537 votes went to Trump by 13.1 points in 2024 — a 9.7-point swing, the largest of any battleground, led by Miami-Dade voting Republican for the first time since 1988.
- Tossup to Republican
- R+0.0 (2000, by 537 votes) → R+1.2 (2016) → R+3.4 (2020) → R+13.1 (2024) · MIT Election Lab
- Largest battleground swing
- A 9.7-pt shift toward Trump from 2020 — the biggest of any battleground; third nationally, after New York (10.5) and New Jersey (10.1) · MIT Election Lab
- Miami-Dade flipped
- D+29.6 (2016) and D+7.3 (2020) → R+11.4 (2024) — first Republican presidential win since 1988 · MIT Election Lab
- The Latino geography
- Hispanic or Latino 27.4% — Cuban 7.3%, Puerto Rican 5.6%, Venezuelan 1.6%; Osceola flipped R+1.5 · ACS 2024 5-year; MIT Election Lab
- Registration crossed over
- Republicans trailed by 107k in 2020; led by 1.14M by 2024 (5.63M to 4.50M) · Florida Division of Elections, 2024
- Open seats in 2026
- Governor open (DeSantis term-limited): Donalds (R) vs Jolly (D); Senate special: appointed Moody (R) vs Vindman (D) — Aug 18 primary · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
New York
New York
46.1twin score
12-yr trendpopulation scalePuerto Rican ancestry≠ 2000 margin
New Jersey
New Jersey
39.1twin score
12-yr trend% WhitePuerto Rican ancestry≠ median income
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
37.4twin score
population scalemedian ageEnglish ancestry≠ % Latino
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/FL/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Florida voted Republican by 13.1 points (R+13.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 10,893,752 votes cast, 4,683,038 went Democratic and 6,110,125 went Republican.
When did Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Florida voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Florida?
Florida has a population of 22,416,077 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Florida?
Median household income in Florida is $74,568 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Florida?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Florida from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.