akashic
1876–2024
Monroe County, Florida
Monroe County·Florida

Monroe County votes the way the country votes.

Florida's island chain swings sharply right despite its resort-town image

18762024·38 elections
Monroe County, Florida · Georgia Guercio · Wikimedia Commons
Latest
R+18
in 2024
Archetype
Bellwether
since the recent cycles
Population
81,860
2024 ACS
Most similar
Chickasaw County
MS · similarity 0.95
33 precincts · 44,316 votes cast
Trump · R+18
Margin
Turnout
Harris +50
Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
2024R
−18.4%
17,92326,06344,316
2020R
−7.9%
21,88125,69348,029
2016R
−6.9%
18,97121,90442,478
2012D
+0.4%
19,40419,23439,057
2008D
+4.9%
20,90718,93340,272
2004D
+0.5%
19,65419,46739,535
2000D
+1.3%
16,48716,06333,895
1996D
+9.8%
15,25112,07632,544
1992D
+1.9%
10,4509,89828,789
1988R
−21.9%
10,15715,92826,405
1984R
−35.5%
7,77416,33224,115
1980R
−17.1%
7,92011,64421,806
1976D
+14.4%
11,0798,23219,757
1972R
−44.6%
4,46911,68816,193
1968D
+3.0%
5,5345,09414,899
1964D
+29.7%
8,9364,84213,778
1960D
+34.2%
6,9723,41610,388
1956D
+12.9%
4,3273,3377,664
1952D
+25.3%
4,9412,9437,884
1948D
+71.3%
3,7595484,503
1944D
+74.6%
3,8825664,448
1940D
+79.7%
4,1024634,565
1936D
+80.5%
2,6052822,887
1932D
+78.8%
2,8383363,174
1928D
+24.5%
1,8991,1423,092
1924D
+46.5%
8352621,232
1920D
+26.8%
9795101,747
1916D
+26.9%
7303451,431
1912D
+33.2%
1,0234141,836
1908D
+34.6%
6302271,166
1904D
+35.4%
6802871,111
1900D
+43.9%
7472521,127
1896D
+9.2%
452369906
1892D
+91.0%
7670843
1888
No data
1884R
−1.0%
8889061,794
1880
No data
1876
No data
Demographics
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
100.0%
African American
5.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
0.0%
speak English only
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
33.8%
Other Christian
8.8%
Methodist
3.4%
Baptist
2.9%
Mainline Protestant
1.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Non-Christian
0.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 47.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Monroe County, anchored by the Florida Keys, shifted to an R+18.3 margin in 2024—a striking result for a tourism-driven coastal enclave where transient workers and retirees share a narrow string of barrier islands.

The Democratic margin in Monroe County has rarely exceeded ninety-one points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-five points. 2024 delivered the county to the Republican candidate by eighteen points.

Monroe County's demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most counties. A 70% non-Hispanic-white share, a 11% poverty rate, and a median household income of $87,738 — all within the broad national range. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Chickasaw County and Macomb County.