HarrisDemocratic40.5%17,933TrumpRepublican58.8%26,064SteinIndependent0.3%152
R+18.3- Lead
- 8,131
- Total
- 44,328
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- 71.3%
Akashiccounty
Monroe County, FL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.3% of 62,827 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic45.6%21,881TrumpRepublican53.5%25,693JorgensenLibertarian0.7%348
R+7.9- Lead
- 3,812
- Total
- 48,029
- vs nation
- R+12.4
- Turnout
- 84.7%
ClintonDemocratic44.7%18,971TrumpRepublican51.6%21,904JohnsonLibertarian2.7%1,131
R+6.9- Lead
- 2,933
- Total
- 42,478
- vs nation
- R+9.0
- Turnout
- 73.2%
ObamaDemocratic49.7%19,404RomneyRepublican49.2%19,234OtherAll other candidates1.1%419
D+0.4- Lead
- 170
- Total
- 39,057
- vs nation
- R+3.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic51.9%20,907McCainRepublican47.0%18,933OtherAll other candidates1.1%432
D+4.9- Lead
- 1,974
- Total
- 40,272
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic49.7%19,654BushRepublican49.2%19,467OtherAll other candidates1.0%414
D+0.5- Lead
- 187
- Total
- 39,535
- vs nation
- D+2.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic48.6%16,487BushRepublican47.4%16,063NaderGreen3.2%1,090
D+1.3- Lead
- 424
- Total
- 33,895
- vs nation
- D+0.7
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic46.9%15,251DoleRepublican37.1%12,076PerotReform14.8%4,824
D+9.8- Lead
- 3,175
- Total
- 32,544
- vs nation
- D+1.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+18.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 81,8602024 5-year
- Median household income
- $87,7382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 63.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 24.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+91.0 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+44.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Santa Fe County, NM · twin score 84.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.3%44,791 participants ÷ 62,827 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +30.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +7.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 40.7%–50.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 43,355 | 59,256 | 73.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 36,586 | 58,183 | 62.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 48,320 | 57,077 | 84.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 34,116 | 63,131 | 54.0% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 44,791 | 62,827 | 71.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
33 precincts · 44,502 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -1111 | 898 | 1,222 | 20 | 2,140 | 42.0% | 57.1% | R+15.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -0505 | 1,256 | 797 | 30 | 2,083 | 60.3% | 38.3% | D+22.0 |
| Precinct -2929 | 619 | 1,408 | 24 | 2,051 | 30.2% | 68.6% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -1515 | 587 | 1,325 | 27 | 1,939 | 30.3% | 68.3% | R+38.1 |
| Precinct -2626 | 610 | 1,260 | 18 | 1,888 | 32.3% | 66.7% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct -3232 | 614 | 1,116 | 19 | 1,749 | 35.1% | 63.8% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -1212 | 586 | 1,059 | 27 | 1,672 | 35.0% | 63.3% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct -1919 | 604 | 993 | 15 | 1,612 | 37.5% | 61.6% | R+24.1 |
| Precinct -1616 | 510 | 1,058 | 23 | 1,591 | 32.1% | 66.5% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct -0909 | 725 | 724 | 20 | 1,469 | 49.4% | 49.3% | D+0.1 |
| Precinct -1313 | 570 | 822 | 14 | 1,406 | 40.5% | 58.5% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -0202 | 689 | 696 | 13 | 1,398 | 49.3% | 49.8% | R+0.5 |
| Precinct -1414 | 422 | 924 | 11 | 1,357 | 31.1% | 68.1% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct -2525 | 438 | 902 | 12 | 1,352 | 32.4% | 66.7% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct -2424 | 417 | 897 | 13 | 1,327 | 31.4% | 67.6% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct -1010 | 718 | 562 | 16 | 1,296 | 55.4% | 43.4% | D+12.0 |
| Precinct -0808 | 737 | 532 | 19 | 1,288 | 57.2% | 41.3% | D+15.9 |
| Precinct -2727 | 443 | 812 | 17 | 1,272 | 34.8% | 63.8% | R+29.0 |
| Precinct -3333 | 354 | 880 | 12 | 1,246 | 28.4% | 70.6% | R+42.2 |
| Precinct -0606 | 822 | 389 | 21 | 1,232 | 66.7% | 31.6% | D+35.1 |
| Precinct -1717 | 431 | 770 | 15 | 1,216 | 35.4% | 63.3% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct -3030 | 448 | 751 | 9 | 1,208 | 37.1% | 62.2% | R+25.1 |
| Precinct -2828 | 432 | 752 | 15 | 1,199 | 36.0% | 62.7% | R+26.7 |
| Precinct -3131 | 422 | 739 | 5 | 1,166 | 36.2% | 63.4% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -0101 | 520 | 624 | 12 | 1,156 | 45.0% | 54.0% | R+9.0 |
| Precinct -2323 | 337 | 744 | 16 | 1,097 | 30.7% | 67.8% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -0303 | 571 | 431 | 15 | 1,017 | 56.1% | 42.4% | D+13.8 |
| Precinct -2020 | 301 | 668 | 12 | 981 | 30.7% | 68.1% | R+37.4 |
| Precinct -0707 | 522 | 428 | 12 | 962 | 54.3% | 44.5% | D+9.8 |
| Precinct -1818 | 297 | 590 | 7 | 894 | 33.2% | 66.0% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct -2121 | 280 | 587 | 4 | 871 | 32.1% | 67.4% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -0404 | 583 | 197 | 9 | 789 | 73.9% | 25.0% | D+48.9 |
| Precinct -2222 | 170 | 405 | 3 | 578 | 29.4% | 70.1% | R+40.7 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1884–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1884 | −1.0% |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +91.0% |
| 1896 | +9.2% |
| 1900 | +43.9% |
| 1904 | +35.4% |
| 1908 | +34.6% |
| 1912 | +33.2% |
| 1916 | +26.9% |
| 1920 | +26.8% |
| 1924 | +46.5% |
| 1928 | +24.5% |
| 1932 | +78.8% |
| 1936 | +80.5% |
| 1940 | +79.7% |
| 1944 | +74.6% |
| 1948 | +71.3% |
| 1952 | +25.3% |
| 1956 | +12.9% |
| 1960 | +34.2% |
| 1964 | +29.7% |
| 1968 | +3.0% |
| 1972 | −44.6% |
| 1976 | +14.4% |
| 1980 | −17.1% |
| 1984 | −35.5% |
| 1988 | −21.9% |
| 1992 | +1.9% |
| 1996 | +9.8% |
| 2000 | +1.3% |
| 2004 | +0.5% |
| 2008 | +4.9% |
| 2012 | +0.4% |
| 2016 | −6.9% |
| 2020 | −7.9% |
| 2024 | −18.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 45.7%Charles O. Andrews2,112 | 5.0%Howard C. Babcock233 | 4,617 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+16.4
Presidential vote · 2024R+18.3
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.9 points.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 55,452 | 17,797 | 21,520 | 15,692 | 443 |
| 2018 | 53,818 | 17,511 | 21,169 | 14,468 | 670 |
| 2019 | 53,462 | 17,413 | 21,213 | 13,988 | 848 |
| 2020 | 58,134 | 18,927 | 23,972 | 14,073 | 1,162 |
| 2021 | 57,945 | 18,165 | 23,901 | 14,610 | 1,269 |
| 2023 | 51,706 | 14,961 | 23,281 | 12,064 | 1,400 |
| 2024 | 52,945 | 15,017 | 23,703 | 12,419 | 1,806 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−1,931 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −8,586 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $171,960 in average income, against $172,907 for residents who stayed — 1% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+3.9 on average — 14 points more Democratic-leaning than Monroe County, FL itself (R+18.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Miami-Dade County, FL423R+11.4
- Broward County, FL169D+17.0
- Palm Beach County, FL104D+0.8
- Lee County, FL61R+28.4
- Orange County, FL50D+13.6
- Pinellas County, FL43R+5.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Miami-Dade County, FL337
- Broward County, FL136
- Palm Beach County, FL123
- Lee County, FL98
- Orange County, FL80
- Pinellas County, FL70
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +411 |
| 2012 | +165 |
| 2013 | +764 |
| 2014 | +8 |
| 2015 | −10 |
| 2016 | −183 |
| 2017 | −790 |
| 2018 | −1,991 |
| 2019 | −750 |
| 2021 | −592 |
| 2022 | −749 |
| 2023 | −1,504 |
| 2024 | −1,434 |
| 2025 | −1,931 |
Monroe County, anchored by the Florida Keys, shifted to an R+18.3 margin in 2024—a striking result for a tourism-driven coastal enclave where transient workers and retirees share a narrow string of barrier islands.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 91.0 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 44.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 10.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.3 points.
A population of 81,860, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $87,738 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Santa Fe County and Taos County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Santa Fe County
New Mexico
84.8twin score
median agecollege share% Evangelical≠ 2024 margin
Taos County
New Mexico
83.4twin score
college sharemedian age% Evangelical≠ 2008 margin
Westchester County
New York
83.1twin score
% Catholic2004 margin% Latino≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Monroe County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12087/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Monroe County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Monroe County, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Monroe County, Florida voted Republican by 18.3 points (R+18.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 44,328 votes cast, 17,933 went Democratic and 26,064 went Republican.
When did Monroe County, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Monroe County, Florida voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Monroe County, Florida?
Monroe County, Florida has a population of 81,860 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Monroe County, Florida?
Median household income in Monroe County, Florida is $87,738 — above the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Monroe County, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Monroe County, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 27 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.