HarrisDemocratic25.8%25,201TrumpRepublican73.1%71,497SteinIndependent0.5%447
R+47.3- Lead
- 46,296
- Total
- 97,777
- vs nation
- R+45.9
- Turnout
- 70.7%
Akashiccounty
Bay County, FL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 70.7% of 139,655 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic27.5%25,614TrumpRepublican71.1%66,097JorgensenLibertarian1.1%1,004
R+43.5- Lead
- 40,483
- Total
- 93,024
- vs nation
- R+48.0
- Turnout
- 68.4%
ClintonDemocratic24.9%21,797TrumpRepublican71.1%62,194JohnsonLibertarian3.0%2,652
R+46.2- Lead
- 40,397
- Total
- 87,453
- vs nation
- R+48.3
- Turnout
- 65.4%
ObamaDemocratic27.6%22,051RomneyRepublican71.2%56,876OtherAll other candidates1.2%934
R+43.6- Lead
- 34,825
- Total
- 79,861
- vs nation
- R+47.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.2%23,653McCainRepublican69.9%56,683OtherAll other candidates1.0%791
R+40.7- Lead
- 33,030
- Total
- 81,127
- vs nation
- R+48.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic28.1%21,068BushRepublican71.2%53,404OtherAll other candidates0.7%552
R+43.1- Lead
- 32,336
- Total
- 75,024
- vs nation
- R+40.6
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic32.1%18,873BushRepublican65.7%38,682NaderGreen1.4%830
R+33.6- Lead
- 19,809
- Total
- 58,876
- vs nation
- R+34.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic33.0%17,068DoleRepublican54.9%28,365PerotReform11.5%5,926
R+21.9- Lead
- 11,297
- Total
- 51,694
- vs nation
- R+30.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+47.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 186,3932024 5-year
- Median household income
- $73,5332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 72.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+76.6 in 1940MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+67.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Jackson County, GA · twin score 91.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 70.7%98,671 participants ÷ 139,655 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.1%–51.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 88,796 | 135,794 | 65.4% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 63,888 | 138,661 | 46.1% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 93,504 | 136,796 | 68.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 67,243 | 137,847 | 48.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 98,671 | 139,655 | 70.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
29 precincts · 98,157 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2020 | 1,570 | 4,828 | 118 | 6,516 | 24.1% | 74.1% | R+50.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -2525 | 1,893 | 4,071 | 100 | 6,064 | 31.2% | 67.1% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -1515 | 1,889 | 3,531 | 105 | 5,525 | 34.2% | 63.9% | R+29.7 |
| Precinct -1919 | 1,185 | 3,792 | 79 | 5,056 | 23.4% | 75.0% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -1717 | 1,241 | 3,505 | 94 | 4,840 | 25.6% | 72.4% | R+46.8 |
| Precinct -04A04A | 1,107 | 3,439 | 65 | 4,611 | 24.0% | 74.6% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct -1010 | 1,145 | 3,135 | 65 | 4,345 | 26.4% | 72.2% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct -0909 | 978 | 3,112 | 56 | 4,146 | 23.6% | 75.1% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -1616 | 1,253 | 2,756 | 77 | 4,086 | 30.7% | 67.4% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -1818 | 1,078 | 2,700 | 92 | 3,870 | 27.9% | 69.8% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -19A19A | 504 | 3,160 | 40 | 3,704 | 13.6% | 85.3% | R+71.7 |
| Precinct -11A11A | 842 | 2,571 | 39 | 3,452 | 24.4% | 74.5% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -1212 | 800 | 2,597 | 47 | 3,444 | 23.2% | 75.4% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -2323 | 1,178 | 2,092 | 48 | 3,318 | 35.5% | 63.1% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -1414 | 878 | 2,191 | 64 | 3,133 | 28.0% | 69.9% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -2121 | 1,832 | 1,225 | 45 | 3,102 | 59.1% | 39.5% | D+19.6 |
| Precinct -2424 | 791 | 2,174 | 44 | 3,009 | 26.3% | 72.2% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -0707 | 684 | 2,235 | 37 | 2,956 | 23.1% | 75.6% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct -0505 | 382 | 2,500 | 23 | 2,905 | 13.1% | 86.1% | R+72.9 |
| Precinct -1313 | 510 | 2,294 | 36 | 2,840 | 18.0% | 80.8% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -1111 | 644 | 2,104 | 35 | 2,783 | 23.1% | 75.6% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct -0808 | 620 | 1,898 | 41 | 2,559 | 24.2% | 74.2% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -0606 | 536 | 1,961 | 18 | 2,515 | 21.3% | 78.0% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -0404 | 375 | 2,089 | 21 | 2,485 | 15.1% | 84.1% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -0303 | 370 | 1,528 | 27 | 1,925 | 19.2% | 79.4% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -0101 | 246 | 1,533 | 13 | 1,792 | 13.7% | 85.5% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct -0202 | 212 | 1,385 | 15 | 1,612 | 13.2% | 85.9% | R+72.8 |
| Precinct -2626 | 224 | 695 | 8 | 927 | 24.2% | 75.0% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -2222 | 234 | 396 | 7 | 637 | 36.7% | 62.2% | R+25.4 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1916–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1916 | +37.8% |
| 1920 | +17.9% |
| 1924 | +41.7% |
| 1928 | +9.8% |
| 1932 | +72.5% |
| 1936 | +71.1% |
| 1940 | +76.6% |
| 1944 | +69.7% |
| 1948 | +58.0% |
| 1952 | +29.2% |
| 1956 | +27.0% |
| 1960 | +32.1% |
| 1964 | −24.2% |
| 1968 | −4.5% |
| 1972 | −67.6% |
| 1976 | +2.2% |
| 1980 | −24.8% |
| 1984 | −51.5% |
| 1988 | −46.0% |
| 1992 | −21.9% |
| 1996 | −21.9% |
| 2000 | −33.6% |
| 2004 | −43.1% |
| 2008 | −40.7% |
| 2012 | −43.6% |
| 2016 | −46.2% |
| 2020 | −43.5% |
| 2024 | −47.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 50.6%Charles O. Andrews2,933 | 6.1%Howard C. Babcock355 | 5,801 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+36.4
Presidential vote · 2024R+47.3
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 11 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 116,243 | 30,454 | 60,368 | 24,649 | 772 |
| 2018 | 121,578 | 30,929 | 63,334 | 26,126 | 1,189 |
| 2019 | 114,454 | 28,254 | 60,518 | 24,243 | 1,439 |
| 2020 | 126,875 | 30,089 | 67,718 | 26,770 | 2,298 |
| 2021 | 122,128 | 27,696 | 65,260 | 26,701 | 2,471 |
| 2023 | 124,320 | 25,433 | 68,375 | 27,314 | 3,198 |
| 2024 | 135,025 | 26,531 | 75,711 | 28,170 | 4,613 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+3,010 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +21,045 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $74,936 in average income, against $78,662 for residents who stayed — 5% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+16.6 on average — 31 points more Democratic-leaning than Bay County, FL itself (R+47.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Walton County, FL275R+57.8
- Okaloosa County, FL233R+42.4
- Washington County, FL182R+65.4
- Leon County, FL149D+21.8
- Gulf County, FL110R+54.2
- Escambia County, FL106R+19.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Washington County, FL216
- Walton County, FL182
- Okaloosa County, FL155
- Leon County, FL124
- Jackson County, FL122
- Gulf County, FL104
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −330 |
| 2012 | +1,059 |
| 2013 | +2,009 |
| 2014 | +2,816 |
| 2015 | +2,108 |
| 2016 | +1,015 |
| 2017 | +199 |
| 2018 | +868 |
| 2019 | −12,080 |
| 2021 | +5,443 |
| 2022 | +5,210 |
| 2023 | +4,761 |
| 2024 | +4,957 |
| 2025 | +3,010 |
Bay County's R+47.4 margin in 2024 ranks among the most lopsided in Florida, reflecting a predominantly white, military-adjacent population centered on Panama City and the Tyndall Air Force Base corridor.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.6 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 67.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 47.3 points.
A population of 186,393, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,533 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jackson County and Walton County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Jackson County
Georgia
91.3twin score
2000–2012 trajectory
Walton County
Florida
90.1twin score
2000–2012 trajectory
Santa Rosa County
Florida
89.9twin score
2004–2012 trajectorypopulation scale≠ median income
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Bay County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12005/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Bay County, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Bay County, Florida voted Republican by 47.3 points (R+47.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 97,777 votes cast, 25,201 went Democratic and 71,497 went Republican.
When did Bay County, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Bay County, Florida voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Bay County, Florida?
Bay County, Florida has a population of 186,393 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bay County, Florida?
Median household income in Bay County, Florida is $73,533 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Bay County, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Bay County, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 13 went Democratic and 14 went Republican.