U.S. Senate / Class 1 (special)

Florida — U.S. Senate (special)

Name: Florida — U.S. Senate (special) — 2026 forecast — ratings + simulated seat distribution
Creator: Akashic
License: https://akashic.app/LICENSE.txt

The call

Likely R

We expect Republican to win this special — 73%.

RatingLikely R

Win probabilityR 73%

Predicted marginR+13.1

The substrate

2024 baselineR+13.1

Seat held byRepublican

The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL state page.

On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →