Akashic2026 forecast
Florida — U.S. Senate (special)
We expect Republicans to win71%The call
We expect Republicans to win this special.
Lean R
71%win probability
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 89% chance to win this special.
Akashic modelRepublican 71%MarketRepublican 89%agree · 19 pts far apart
The market and our model both favor the Republicans, but the market is more confident — a 19-point gap.
Total volume
$61k
Liquidity
$35k
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
Candidates & money · FEC reports through Mar 31, 2026
| Candidate | Raised | Outside spending |
|---|---|---|
| Ashley MoodyRIncumbentPresumptive | for against | |
| Alex VindmanDPresumptive | for | |
| Angie NixonD | — | |
| Chris GleasonR | not yet filing |
The substrate
2024 baseline
R+13.1
Seat held by
Republican
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the FL state page.
Recent elections · U.S. Senate · Florida
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | RepublicanR | R+13 |
| 2022 | RepublicanR | R+16 |
| 2018 | RepublicanR | even |
| 2016 | RepublicanR | R+8 |
| 2012 | DemocraticD | D+13 |
| 2010 | RepublicanR |
Public polling · 5 pollsno average shown
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 49·Vindman 42 | R+7 |
| Stetson University | Mar 25 – Apr 13 | 848 LV | Moody 51·Nixon 38 | R+13 |
| Echelon Insights | Apr 3–9 | 406 LV | Moody 50·Vindman 43 | R+7 |
| MDW Communications | Mar 27 – Apr 3 | 1,834 LV | Moody 43· |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. Senate races →