- Lead
- 2,508
- Total
- 172,780
- vs nation
- Even
- Turnout
- 63.0%
Osceola County, FL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.0% of 276,678 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 23,817
- Total
- 172,436
- vs nation
- D+9.4
- Turnout
- 71.6%
- Lead
- 35,157
- Total
- 140,206
- vs nation
- D+23.0
- Turnout
- 68.8%
- Lead
- 26,647
- Total
- 108,698
- vs nation
- D+20.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 19,876
- Total
- 100,670
- vs nation
- D+12.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,484
- Total
- 82,204
- vs nation
- R+3.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,950
- Total
- 55,690
- vs nation
- D+3.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,537
- Total
- 46,491
- vs nation
- R+0.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 427,4152024 5-year
- Median household income
- $72,6372024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 27.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 9.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 56.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+94.2 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.3 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cameron County, TX · twin score 91.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 63.0%174,394 participants ÷ 276,678 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +31.8 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +8.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 31.2%–38.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 142,716 | 207,525 | 68.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 116,475 | 225,928 | 51.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 173,695 | 242,760 | 71.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 103,173 | 259,572 | 39.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 174,394 | 276,678 | 63.0% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
126 precincts · 173,285 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -42014201 | 3,324 | 4,540 | 86 | 7,950 | 41.8% | 57.1% | R+15.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -30063006 | 4,382 | 2,684 | 86 | 7,152 | 61.3% | 37.5% | D+23.7 |
| Precinct -20022002 | 3,727 | 2,674 | 75 | 6,476 | 57.6% | 41.3% | D+16.3 |
| Precinct -50015001 | 2,218 | 3,052 | 79 | 5,349 | 41.5% | 57.1% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct -15141514 | 2,620 | 2,541 | 76 | 5,237 | 50.0% | 48.5% | D+1.5 |
| Precinct -50005000 | 2,380 | 2,586 | 66 | 5,032 | 47.3% | 51.4% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct -52015201 | 2,023 | 2,877 | 58 | 4,958 | 40.8% | 58.0% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -20042004 | 2,840 | 2,004 | 58 | 4,902 | 57.9% | 40.9% | D+17.1 |
| Precinct -30093009 | 2,733 | 2,078 | 70 | 4,881 | 56.0% | 42.6% | D+13.4 |
| Precinct -52005200 | 1,710 | 2,634 | 62 | 4,406 | 38.8% | 59.8% | R+21.0 |
| Precinct -10011001 | 2,122 | 1,542 | 77 | 3,741 | 56.7% | 41.2% | D+15.5 |
| Precinct -40054005 | 1,742 | 1,756 | 34 | 3,532 | 49.3% | 49.7% | R+0.4 |
| Precinct -50105010 | 746 | 2,642 | 37 | 3,425 | 21.8% | 77.1% | R+55.4 |
| Precinct -50035003 | 1,450 | 1,772 | 32 | 3,254 | 44.6% | 54.5% | R+9.9 |
| Precinct -30073007 | 2,138 | 1,011 | 36 | 3,185 | 67.1% | 31.7% | D+35.4 |
| Precinct -41024102 | 1,609 | 1,491 | 61 | 3,161 | 50.9% | 47.2% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -21052105 | 1,732 | 1,343 | 35 | 3,110 | 55.7% | 43.2% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct -20052005 | 1,449 | 1,524 | 41 | 3,014 | 48.1% | 50.6% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -10041004 | 1,449 | 1,236 | 83 | 2,768 | 52.3% | 44.7% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -30043004 | 1,408 | 1,238 | 40 | 2,686 | 52.4% | 46.1% | D+6.3 |
| Precinct -30003000 | 1,452 | 1,119 | 22 | 2,593 | 56.0% | 43.2% | D+12.8 |
| Precinct -40044004 | 932 | 1,540 | 24 | 2,496 | 37.3% | 61.7% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -11021102 | 1,198 | 1,053 | 58 | 2,309 | 51.9% | 45.6% | D+6.3 |
| Precinct -42004200 | 1,011 | 1,245 | 32 | 2,288 | 44.2% | 54.4% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -25012501 | 1,206 | 1,033 | 18 | 2,257 | 53.4% | 45.8% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -15211521 | 1,038 | 1,081 | 23 | 2,142 | 48.5% | 50.5% | R+2.0 |
| Precinct -50085008 | 497 | 1,611 | 18 | 2,126 | 23.4% | 75.8% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -52025202 | 981 | 1,059 | 32 | 2,072 | 47.3% | 51.1% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct -55055505 | 751 | 1,253 | 27 | 2,031 | 37.0% | 61.7% | R+24.7 |
| Precinct -50095009 | 530 | 1,358 | 15 | 1,903 | 27.9% | 71.4% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct -21042104 | 903 | 937 | 20 | 1,860 | 48.5% | 50.4% | R+1.8 |
| Precinct -30083008 | 1,190 | 627 | 27 | 1,844 | 64.5% | 34.0% | D+30.5 |
| Precinct -30033003 | 1,011 | 725 | 17 | 1,753 | 57.7% | 41.4% | D+16.3 |
| Precinct -21032103 | 859 | 854 | 13 | 1,726 | 49.8% | 49.5% | D+0.3 |
| Precinct -52035203 | 656 | 897 | 17 | 1,570 | 41.8% | 57.1% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -11031103 | 803 | 713 | 18 | 1,534 | 52.3% | 46.5% | D+5.9 |
| Precinct -30023002 | 691 | 772 | 23 | 1,486 | 46.5% | 52.0% | R+5.5 |
| Precinct -10071007 | 773 | 661 | 40 | 1,474 | 52.4% | 44.8% | D+7.6 |
| Precinct -20002000 | 679 | 691 | 21 | 1,391 | 48.8% | 49.7% | R+0.9 |
| Precinct -52055205 | 585 | 760 | 20 | 1,365 | 42.9% | 55.7% | R+12.8 |
| Precinct -21002100 | 687 | 555 | 40 | 1,282 | 53.6% | 43.3% | D+10.3 |
| Precinct -41034103 | 689 | 570 | 18 | 1,277 | 54.0% | 44.6% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct -36003600 | 725 | 522 | 20 | 1,267 | 57.2% | 41.2% | D+16.0 |
| Precinct -55035503 | 561 | 680 | 16 | 1,257 | 44.6% | 54.1% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -52065206 | 579 | 661 | 15 | 1,255 | 46.1% | 52.7% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -55015501 | 600 | 599 | 14 | 1,213 | 49.5% | 49.4% | D+0.1 |
| Precinct -30103010 | 586 | 589 | 10 | 1,185 | 49.5% | 49.7% | R+0.3 |
| Precinct -45004500 | 568 | 562 | 22 | 1,152 | 49.3% | 48.8% | D+0.5 |
| Precinct -15041504 | 593 | 521 | 17 | 1,131 | 52.4% | 46.1% | D+6.4 |
| Precinct -15001500 | 661 | 437 | 15 | 1,113 | 59.4% | 39.3% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -50125012 | 192 | 871 | 21 | 1,084 | 17.7% | 80.4% | R+62.6 |
| Precinct -10001000 | 564 | 504 | 12 | 1,080 | 52.2% | 46.7% | D+5.6 |
| Precinct -47034703 | 533 | 519 | 18 | 1,070 | 49.8% | 48.5% | D+1.3 |
| Precinct -50025002 | 313 | 719 | 15 | 1,047 | 29.9% | 68.7% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -35023502 | 604 | 405 | 13 | 1,022 | 59.1% | 39.6% | D+19.5 |
| Precinct -57015701 | 481 | 508 | 9 | 998 | 48.2% | 50.9% | R+2.7 |
| Precinct -35033503 | 667 | 306 | 14 | 987 | 67.6% | 31.0% | D+36.6 |
| Precinct -10061006 | 490 | 474 | 19 | 983 | 49.8% | 48.2% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -46004600 | 500 | 418 | 29 | 947 | 52.8% | 44.1% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct -21012101 | 491 | 426 | 25 | 942 | 52.1% | 45.2% | D+6.9 |
| Precinct -47004700 | 428 | 497 | 6 | 931 | 46.0% | 53.4% | R+7.4 |
| Precinct -47014701 | 400 | 482 | 7 | 889 | 45.0% | 54.2% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -11011101 | 457 | 343 | 22 | 822 | 55.6% | 41.7% | D+13.9 |
| Precinct -41044104 | 500 | 275 | 11 | 786 | 63.6% | 35.0% | D+28.6 |
| Precinct -40064006 | 430 | 319 | 14 | 763 | 56.4% | 41.8% | D+14.5 |
| Precinct -30053005 | 382 | 369 | 9 | 760 | 50.3% | 48.6% | D+1.7 |
| Precinct -50055005 | 189 | 548 | 6 | 743 | 25.4% | 73.8% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -55045504 | 303 | 424 | 10 | 737 | 41.1% | 57.5% | R+16.4 |
| Precinct -15031503 | 320 | 384 | 7 | 711 | 45.0% | 54.0% | R+9.0 |
| Precinct -15081508 | 378 | 317 | 8 | 703 | 53.8% | 45.1% | D+8.7 |
| Precinct -55025502 | 286 | 407 | 8 | 701 | 40.8% | 58.1% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -35043504 | 388 | 301 | 5 | 694 | 55.9% | 43.4% | D+12.5 |
| Precinct -11001100 | 363 | 312 | 15 | 690 | 52.6% | 45.2% | D+7.4 |
| Precinct -15171517 | 394 | 280 | 13 | 687 | 57.4% | 40.8% | D+16.6 |
| Precinct -15121512 | 230 | 411 | 15 | 656 | 35.1% | 62.7% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -41014101 | 346 | 279 | 11 | 636 | 54.4% | 43.9% | D+10.5 |
| Precinct -50115011 | 111 | 514 | 4 | 629 | 17.6% | 81.7% | R+64.1 |
| Precinct -10031003 | 236 | 355 | 11 | 602 | 39.2% | 59.0% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct -35013501 | 350 | 245 | 6 | 601 | 58.2% | 40.8% | D+17.5 |
| Precinct -40004000 | 118 | 461 | 3 | 582 | 20.3% | 79.2% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct -40034003 | 233 | 332 | 12 | 577 | 40.4% | 57.5% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -25002500 | 325 | 235 | 8 | 568 | 57.2% | 41.4% | D+15.8 |
| Precinct -50045004 | 161 | 385 | 4 | 550 | 29.3% | 70.0% | R+40.7 |
| Precinct -45014501 | 271 | 269 | 9 | 549 | 49.4% | 49.0% | D+0.4 |
| Precinct -57005700 | 267 | 260 | 5 | 532 | 50.2% | 48.9% | D+1.3 |
| Precinct -15021502 | 227 | 280 | 1 | 508 | 44.7% | 55.1% | R+10.4 |
| Precinct -15191519 | 257 | 210 | 5 | 472 | 54.4% | 44.5% | D+10.0 |
| Precinct -10051005 | 190 | 270 | 11 | 471 | 40.3% | 57.3% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct -10081008 | 216 | 240 | 4 | 460 | 47.0% | 52.2% | R+5.2 |
| Precinct -35003500 | 255 | 190 | 5 | 450 | 56.7% | 42.2% | D+14.4 |
| Precinct -15101510 | 252 | 191 | 5 | 448 | 56.3% | 42.6% | D+13.6 |
| Precinct -10021002 | 274 | 147 | 6 | 427 | 64.2% | 34.4% | D+29.7 |
| Precinct -20012001 | 186 | 232 | 5 | 423 | 44.0% | 54.8% | R+10.9 |
| Precinct -31003100 | 217 | 193 | 6 | 416 | 52.2% | 46.4% | D+5.8 |
| Precinct -15071507 | 160 | 116 | 2 | 278 | 57.6% | 41.7% | D+15.8 |
| Precinct -15091509 | 166 | 100 | 3 | 269 | 61.7% | 37.2% | D+24.5 |
| Precinct -31013101 | 127 | 135 | 6 | 268 | 47.4% | 50.4% | R+3.0 |
| Precinct -41004100 | 105 | 150 | 8 | 263 | 39.9% | 57.0% | R+17.1 |
| Precinct -15051505 | 157 | 98 | 6 | 261 | 60.2% | 37.5% | D+22.6 |
| Precinct -20032003 | 127 | 106 | 3 | 236 | 53.8% | 44.9% | D+8.9 |
| Precinct -45024502 | 110 | 118 | 3 | 231 | 47.6% | 51.1% | R+3.5 |
| Precinct -21022102 | 110 | 99 | 1 | 210 | 52.4% | 47.1% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct -55005500 | 90 | 109 | 8 | 207 | 43.5% | 52.7% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -55095509 | 69 | 94 | 3 | 166 | 41.6% | 56.6% | R+15.1 |
| Precinct -52045204 | 72 | 84 | 1 | 157 | 45.9% | 53.5% | R+7.6 |
| Precinct -15201520 | 82 | 48 | 0 | 130 | 63.1% | 36.9% | D+26.2 |
| Precinct -50065006 | 29 | 92 | 1 | 122 | 23.8% | 75.4% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -36013601 | 43 | 45 | 0 | 88 | 48.9% | 51.1% | R+2.3 |
| Precinct -30013001 | 27 | 50 | 2 | 79 | 34.2% | 63.3% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -40014001 | 12 | 47 | 1 | 60 | 20.0% | 78.3% | R+58.3 |
| Precinct -47024702 | 22 | 38 | 0 | 60 | 36.7% | 63.3% | R+26.7 |
| Precinct -55065506 | 24 | 22 | 1 | 47 | 51.1% | 46.8% | D+4.3 |
| Precinct -40024002 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 46 | 21.7% | 76.1% | R+54.3 |
| Precinct -40104010 | 17 | 25 | 0 | 42 | 40.5% | 59.5% | R+19.0 |
| Precinct -50075007 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 28 | 39.3% | 60.7% | R+21.4 |
| Precinct -55075507 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 28 | 39.3% | 60.7% | R+21.4 |
| Precinct -15011501 | 15 | 12 | 0 | 27 | 55.6% | 44.4% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct -16001600 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 25 | 52.0% | 36.0% | D+16.0 |
| Precinct -40094009 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 24 | 37.5% | 58.3% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct -55115511 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 88.9% | 11.1% | D+77.8 |
| Precinct -15111511 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 16.7% | 83.3% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -15181518 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | D+100.0 |
| Precinct -15131513 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -45044504 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| Precinct -40074007 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Exact tie |
| Precinct -45034503 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | D+100.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +94.2% |
| 1896 | +38.0% |
| 1900 | +60.2% |
| 1904 | +58.4% |
| 1908 | +33.3% |
| 1912 | +45.2% |
| 1916 | +5.0% |
| 1920 | −16.4% |
| 1924 | +16.8% |
| 1928 | −21.7% |
| 1932 | +29.3% |
| 1936 | +19.1% |
| 1940 | +17.0% |
| 1944 | +11.5% |
| 1948 | +0.1% |
| 1952 | −24.5% |
| 1956 | −30.4% |
| 1960 | −36.6% |
| 1964 | −12.2% |
| 1968 | −24.2% |
| 1972 | −66.3% |
| 1976 | −1.2% |
| 1980 | −23.4% |
| 1984 | −46.9% |
| 1988 | −36.8% |
| 1992 | −9.1% |
| 1996 | +7.6% |
| 2000 | +3.5% |
| 2004 | −5.5% |
| 2008 | +19.7% |
| 2012 | +24.5% |
| 2016 | +25.1% |
| 2020 | +13.8% |
| 2024 | −1.5% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 40.2%Charles O. Andrews1,759 | 18.1%Howard C. Babcock794 | 4,380 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Osceola County, FL registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 9.9-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 201,641 | 86,546 | 47,017 | 67,434 | 644 |
| 2018 | 215,840 | 92,518 | 49,215 | 72,942 | 1,165 |
| 2019 | 218,338 | 91,613 | 49,229 | 75,903 | 1,593 |
| 2020 | 245,714 | 102,614 | 56,822 | 83,424 | 2,854 |
| 2021 | 242,282 | 98,423 | 55,881 | 84,891 | 3,087 |
| 2023 | 219,596 | 81,896 | 57,337 | 75,799 | 4,564 |
| 2024 | 243,261 | 87,656 | 67,156 | 81,054 | 7,395 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+7,272 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +85,484 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,989 in average income, against $59,382 for residents who stayed — 1% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+5.7 on average — 7.1 points more Democratic-leaning than Osceola County, FL itself (R+1.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Orange County, FL7,271D+13.6
- Polk County, FL1,987R+20.7
- Miami-Dade County, FL775R+11.4
- Broward County, FL590D+17.0
- Seminole County, FL510R+3.6
- Lake County, FL504R+24.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Orange County, FL5,567
- Polk County, FL3,499
- Lake County, FL823
- Seminole County, FL552
- Brevard County, FL398
- Hillsborough County, FL339
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +3,254 |
| 2012 | +4,471 |
| 2013 | +4,531 |
| 2014 | +4,726 |
| 2015 | +5,026 |
| 2016 | +6,204 |
| 2017 | +6,532 |
| 2018 | +4,435 |
| 2019 | +4,041 |
| 2021 | +10,447 |
| 2022 | +12,148 |
| 2023 | +7,282 |
| 2024 | +5,115 |
| 2025 | +7,272 |
Osceola's large Puerto Rican community near Kissimmee has made it a closely watched barometer of Latino voting shifts in central Florida, with the 2024 margin tightening to R+1.4 after years of Democratic-leaning results.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 94.2 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 66.3 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 15.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.5 points.
A population of 427,415, a 27% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,637 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cameron County and Hidalgo County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Osceola County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12097/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.