- Lead
- 111,421
- Total
- 392,532
- vs nation
- R+26.9
- Turnout
- 65.5%
Lee County, FL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 65.5% of 606,203 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 75,552
- Total
- 393,899
- vs nation
- R+23.6
- Turnout
- 70.1%
- Lead
- 66,643
- Total
- 326,420
- vs nation
- R+22.5
- Turnout
- 66.9%
- Lead
- 44,006
- Total
- 266,166
- vs nation
- R+20.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 27,907
- Total
- 269,276
- vs nation
- R+17.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 50,316
- Total
- 240,667
- vs nation
- R+18.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 32,580
- Total
- 184,400
- vs nation
- R+18.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 15,199
- Total
- 165,951
- vs nation
- R+17.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 817,6662024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,1072024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 62.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 7.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 24.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+96.2 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.1 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lake County, FL · twin score 91.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 65.5%396,903 participants ÷ 606,203 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 42.8%–48.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 334,660 | 500,252 | 66.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 292,894 | 530,307 | 55.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 396,758 | 566,234 | 70.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 276,081 | 581,903 | 47.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 396,903 | 606,203 | 65.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
99 precincts · 394,105 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -202202 | 4,057 | 6,775 | 93 | 10,925 | 37.1% | 62.0% | R+24.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -314314 | 2,766 | 6,020 | 85 | 8,871 | 31.2% | 67.9% | R+36.7 |
| Precinct -101101 | 2,531 | 5,331 | 87 | 7,949 | 31.8% | 67.1% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -512512 | 2,307 | 4,861 | 68 | 7,236 | 31.9% | 67.2% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -409409 | 2,116 | 4,692 | 56 | 6,864 | 30.8% | 68.4% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -313313 | 2,314 | 4,203 | 53 | 6,570 | 35.2% | 64.0% | R+28.8 |
| Precinct -408408 | 2,402 | 4,110 | 38 | 6,550 | 36.7% | 62.7% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -402402 | 1,937 | 4,466 | 66 | 6,469 | 29.9% | 69.0% | R+39.1 |
| Precinct -311311 | 2,349 | 4,001 | 82 | 6,432 | 36.5% | 62.2% | R+25.7 |
| Precinct -110110 | 2,300 | 4,026 | 70 | 6,396 | 36.0% | 62.9% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -510510 | 2,412 | 3,824 | 74 | 6,310 | 38.2% | 60.6% | R+22.4 |
| Precinct -316316 | 2,274 | 3,872 | 87 | 6,233 | 36.5% | 62.1% | R+25.6 |
| Precinct -304304 | 2,073 | 4,010 | 62 | 6,145 | 33.7% | 65.3% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct -210210 | 2,490 | 3,410 | 66 | 5,966 | 41.7% | 57.2% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -222222 | 2,422 | 3,425 | 84 | 5,931 | 40.8% | 57.7% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct -107107 | 1,850 | 3,992 | 57 | 5,899 | 31.4% | 67.7% | R+36.3 |
| Precinct -501501 | 2,300 | 3,382 | 53 | 5,735 | 40.1% | 59.0% | R+18.9 |
| Precinct -303303 | 1,983 | 3,526 | 86 | 5,595 | 35.4% | 63.0% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -412412 | 1,954 | 3,578 | 50 | 5,582 | 35.0% | 64.1% | R+29.1 |
| Precinct -513513 | 1,222 | 4,228 | 53 | 5,503 | 22.2% | 76.8% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -317317 | 1,858 | 3,564 | 54 | 5,476 | 33.9% | 65.1% | R+31.2 |
| Precinct -212212 | 2,331 | 3,048 | 70 | 5,449 | 42.8% | 55.9% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -118118 | 1,430 | 3,907 | 47 | 5,384 | 26.6% | 72.6% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -119119 | 1,652 | 3,623 | 54 | 5,329 | 31.0% | 68.0% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct -108108 | 1,544 | 3,610 | 53 | 5,207 | 29.7% | 69.3% | R+39.7 |
| Precinct -112112 | 1,493 | 3,480 | 44 | 5,017 | 29.8% | 69.4% | R+39.6 |
| Precinct -320320 | 1,989 | 2,963 | 42 | 4,994 | 39.8% | 59.3% | R+19.5 |
| Precinct -318318 | 1,866 | 2,913 | 51 | 4,830 | 38.6% | 60.3% | R+21.7 |
| Precinct -117117 | 1,397 | 3,204 | 40 | 4,641 | 30.1% | 69.0% | R+38.9 |
| Precinct -120120 | 1,278 | 3,301 | 43 | 4,622 | 27.7% | 71.4% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -214214 | 1,608 | 2,926 | 68 | 4,602 | 34.9% | 63.6% | R+28.6 |
| Precinct -407407 | 1,343 | 3,201 | 44 | 4,588 | 29.3% | 69.8% | R+40.5 |
| Precinct -415415 | 2,502 | 1,927 | 57 | 4,486 | 55.8% | 43.0% | D+12.8 |
| Precinct -310310 | 1,465 | 2,860 | 51 | 4,376 | 33.5% | 65.4% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -416416 | 2,472 | 1,799 | 47 | 4,318 | 57.2% | 41.7% | D+15.6 |
| Precinct -506506 | 1,903 | 2,360 | 44 | 4,307 | 44.2% | 54.8% | R+10.6 |
| Precinct -209209 | 1,510 | 2,650 | 43 | 4,203 | 35.9% | 63.1% | R+27.1 |
| Precinct -121121 | 1,044 | 3,092 | 37 | 4,173 | 25.0% | 74.1% | R+49.1 |
| Precinct -104104 | 1,312 | 2,800 | 35 | 4,147 | 31.6% | 67.5% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -103103 | 1,384 | 2,643 | 36 | 4,063 | 34.1% | 65.1% | R+31.0 |
| Precinct -511511 | 1,625 | 2,338 | 51 | 4,014 | 40.5% | 58.2% | R+17.8 |
| Precinct -111111 | 1,237 | 2,698 | 19 | 3,954 | 31.3% | 68.2% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -216216 | 1,835 | 2,066 | 44 | 3,945 | 46.5% | 52.4% | R+5.9 |
| Precinct -215215 | 1,337 | 2,524 | 63 | 3,924 | 34.1% | 64.3% | R+30.2 |
| Precinct -508508 | 1,668 | 2,214 | 41 | 3,923 | 42.5% | 56.4% | R+13.9 |
| Precinct -307307 | 1,312 | 2,491 | 64 | 3,867 | 33.9% | 64.4% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -217217 | 1,643 | 2,000 | 85 | 3,728 | 44.1% | 53.6% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct -206206 | 1,060 | 2,620 | 46 | 3,726 | 28.4% | 70.3% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -315315 | 1,187 | 2,473 | 50 | 3,710 | 32.0% | 66.7% | R+34.7 |
| Precinct -208208 | 1,273 | 2,378 | 35 | 3,686 | 34.5% | 64.5% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -504504 | 1,739 | 1,889 | 28 | 3,656 | 47.6% | 51.7% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct -413413 | 1,152 | 2,457 | 38 | 3,647 | 31.6% | 67.4% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct -114114 | 975 | 2,624 | 33 | 3,632 | 26.8% | 72.2% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -301301 | 1,252 | 2,312 | 43 | 3,607 | 34.7% | 64.1% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct -410410 | 1,145 | 2,391 | 31 | 3,567 | 32.1% | 67.0% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -411411 | 1,336 | 2,103 | 41 | 3,480 | 38.4% | 60.4% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct -302302 | 1,240 | 2,153 | 40 | 3,433 | 36.1% | 62.7% | R+26.6 |
| Precinct -305305 | 1,188 | 2,173 | 51 | 3,412 | 34.8% | 63.7% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -113113 | 960 | 2,400 | 29 | 3,389 | 28.3% | 70.8% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct -306306 | 1,183 | 2,096 | 35 | 3,314 | 35.7% | 63.2% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -403403 | 1,203 | 2,063 | 30 | 3,296 | 36.5% | 62.6% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -204204 | 1,191 | 2,043 | 37 | 3,271 | 36.4% | 62.5% | R+26.0 |
| Precinct -106106 | 1,032 | 2,210 | 22 | 3,264 | 31.6% | 67.7% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct -115115 | 871 | 2,314 | 28 | 3,213 | 27.1% | 72.0% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -507507 | 1,322 | 1,655 | 43 | 3,020 | 43.8% | 54.8% | R+11.0 |
| Precinct -102102 | 994 | 1,980 | 33 | 3,007 | 33.1% | 65.8% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct -515515 | 1,011 | 1,941 | 24 | 2,976 | 34.0% | 65.2% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -221221 | 1,303 | 1,568 | 33 | 2,904 | 44.9% | 54.0% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct -203203 | 1,037 | 1,778 | 24 | 2,839 | 36.5% | 62.6% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -417417 | 1,837 | 922 | 54 | 2,813 | 65.3% | 32.8% | D+32.5 |
| Precinct -205205 | 848 | 1,870 | 38 | 2,756 | 30.8% | 67.9% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -312312 | 998 | 1,716 | 42 | 2,756 | 36.2% | 62.3% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -218218 | 1,039 | 1,658 | 31 | 2,728 | 38.1% | 60.8% | R+22.7 |
| Precinct -219219 | 1,000 | 1,689 | 32 | 2,721 | 36.8% | 62.1% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -517517 | 782 | 1,888 | 36 | 2,706 | 28.9% | 69.8% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -109109 | 813 | 1,828 | 36 | 2,677 | 30.4% | 68.3% | R+37.9 |
| Precinct -308308 | 926 | 1,707 | 17 | 2,650 | 34.9% | 64.4% | R+29.5 |
| Precinct -405405 | 812 | 1,735 | 26 | 2,573 | 31.6% | 67.4% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -404404 | 815 | 1,647 | 33 | 2,495 | 32.7% | 66.0% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -201201 | 832 | 1,623 | 25 | 2,480 | 33.5% | 65.4% | R+31.9 |
| Precinct -505505 | 1,215 | 1,234 | 27 | 2,476 | 49.1% | 49.8% | R+0.8 |
| Precinct -509509 | 1,142 | 1,298 | 21 | 2,461 | 46.4% | 52.7% | R+6.3 |
| Precinct -105105 | 1,054 | 1,321 | 32 | 2,407 | 43.8% | 54.9% | R+11.1 |
| Precinct -503503 | 645 | 1,728 | 16 | 2,389 | 27.0% | 72.3% | R+45.3 |
| Precinct -213213 | 910 | 1,454 | 19 | 2,383 | 38.2% | 61.0% | R+22.8 |
| Precinct -220220 | 916 | 1,358 | 19 | 2,293 | 39.9% | 59.2% | R+19.3 |
| Precinct -516516 | 400 | 1,782 | 15 | 2,197 | 18.2% | 81.1% | R+62.9 |
| Precinct -207207 | 545 | 1,565 | 15 | 2,125 | 25.6% | 73.6% | R+48.0 |
| Precinct -211211 | 751 | 1,300 | 25 | 2,076 | 36.2% | 62.6% | R+26.4 |
| Precinct -116116 | 966 | 1,027 | 39 | 2,032 | 47.5% | 50.5% | R+3.0 |
| Precinct -321321 | 625 | 1,329 | 20 | 1,974 | 31.7% | 67.3% | R+35.7 |
| Precinct -406406 | 666 | 1,234 | 18 | 1,918 | 34.7% | 64.3% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct -401401 | 684 | 1,210 | 19 | 1,913 | 35.8% | 63.3% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -414414 | 489 | 1,061 | 16 | 1,566 | 31.2% | 67.8% | R+36.5 |
| Precinct -319319 | 424 | 1,069 | 14 | 1,507 | 28.1% | 70.9% | R+42.8 |
| Precinct -502502 | 266 | 1,129 | 14 | 1,409 | 18.9% | 80.1% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct -309309 | 317 | 662 | 9 | 988 | 32.1% | 67.0% | R+34.9 |
| Precinct -514514 | 413 | 508 | 12 | 933 | 44.3% | 54.4% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -122122 | 359 | 554 | 13 | 926 | 38.8% | 59.8% | R+21.1 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +96.2% |
| 1896 | +47.4% |
| 1900 | +69.9% |
| 1904 | +36.9% |
| 1908 | +36.4% |
| 1912 | +55.2% |
| 1916 | +51.6% |
| 1920 | +18.4% |
| 1924 | +18.1% |
| 1928 | −27.7% |
| 1932 | +44.9% |
| 1936 | +38.3% |
| 1940 | +37.0% |
| 1944 | +28.5% |
| 1948 | −6.8% |
| 1952 | −18.2% |
| 1956 | −25.2% |
| 1960 | −30.7% |
| 1964 | −11.6% |
| 1968 | −20.6% |
| 1972 | −59.1% |
| 1976 | −10.7% |
| 1980 | −34.8% |
| 1984 | −47.8% |
| 1988 | −36.1% |
| 1992 | −11.9% |
| 1996 | −9.2% |
| 2000 | −17.7% |
| 2004 | −20.9% |
| 2008 | −10.4% |
| 2012 | −16.5% |
| 2016 | −20.4% |
| 2020 | −19.2% |
| 2024 | −28.4% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 46.0%Charles O. Andrews2,760 | 14.6%Howard C. Babcock877 | 5,998 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 3.0 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 431,685 | 116,898 | 187,017 | 126,058 | 1,712 |
| 2018 | 451,515 | 122,355 | 193,263 | 132,683 | 3,214 |
| 2019 | 462,006 | 124,604 | 196,087 | 136,833 | 4,482 |
| 2020 | 497,273 | 134,673 | 214,228 | 141,125 | 7,247 |
| 2021 | 502,713 | 131,146 | 216,168 | 147,002 | 8,397 |
| 2023 | 469,324 | 109,634 | 219,762 | 129,086 | 10,842 |
| 2024 | 504,072 | 112,996 | 240,762 | 135,243 | 15,071 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+8,603 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +202,937 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $123,824 in average income, against $104,324 for residents who stayed — 19% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+1.7 on average — 27 points more Democratic-leaning than Lee County, FL itself (R+28.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Collier County, FL2,781R+33.1
- Miami-Dade County, FL2,131R+11.4
- Broward County, FL1,040D+17.0
- Charlotte County, FL539R+34.0
- Palm Beach County, FL480D+0.8
- Hillsborough County, FL467R+3.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Collier County, FL1,925
- Charlotte County, FL1,017
- Hillsborough County, FL754
- Miami-Dade County, FL707
- Broward County, FL518
- Sarasota County, FL483
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +7,915 |
| 2012 | +10,319 |
| 2013 | +13,001 |
| 2014 | +14,618 |
| 2015 | +18,818 |
| 2016 | +19,226 |
| 2017 | +14,026 |
| 2018 | +12,202 |
| 2019 | +15,043 |
| 2021 | +28,248 |
| 2022 | +28,404 |
| 2023 | +7,760 |
| 2024 | +4,754 |
| 2025 | +8,603 |
Lee County's rapid post-2000 growth, driven largely by retirees from the Midwest and Northeast, has produced one of Florida's most reliably Republican electorates on the Gulf Coast, with the 2024 presidential margin reaching 28.4 points.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 96.2 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 59.1 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.4 points.
A population of 817,666, a 62% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,107 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lake County and Manatee County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lee County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12071/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.