- Lead
- 34,123
- Total
- 156,802
- vs nation
- D+23.2
- Turnout
- 67.4%
Leon County, FL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.4% of 233,590 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 46,064
- Total
- 162,929
- vs nation
- D+23.8
- Turnout
- 71.7%
- Lead
- 38,247
- Total
- 152,132
- vs nation
- D+23.1
- Turnout
- 70.1%
- Lead
- 35,076
- Total
- 148,353
- vs nation
- D+19.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 36,042
- Total
- 148,608
- vs nation
- D+17.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 32,258
- Total
- 136,379
- vs nation
- D+26.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 22,371
- Total
- 103,154
- vs nation
- D+21.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 16,142
- Total
- 91,717
- vs nation
- D+9.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+21.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 297,5422024 5-year
- Population density
- 445 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 668 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $66,2872024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 53.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 30.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+100.0 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.0 in 1884MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Durham County, NC · twin score 95.8
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.4%157,430 participants ÷ 233,590 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 46.5%–53.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 155,417 | 221,715 | 70.1% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 141,027 | 225,278 | 62.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 164,342 | 229,275 | 71.7% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 117,751 | 231,935 | 50.8% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 157,430 | 233,590 | 67.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
131 precincts · 157,530 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -41254125 | 1,905 | 1,909 | 68 | 3,882 | 49.1% | 49.2% | R+0.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -41194119 | 1,975 | 1,791 | 81 | 3,847 | 51.3% | 46.6% | D+4.8 |
| Precinct -44594459 | 1,418 | 1,902 | 75 | 3,395 | 41.8% | 56.0% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct -52255225 | 1,852 | 1,444 | 65 | 3,361 | 55.1% | 43.0% | D+12.1 |
| Precinct -52605260 | 2,061 | 1,053 | 72 | 3,186 | 64.7% | 33.1% | D+31.6 |
| Precinct -23052305 | 2,438 | 614 | 59 | 3,111 | 78.4% | 19.7% | D+58.6 |
| Precinct -35133513 | 2,143 | 859 | 64 | 3,066 | 69.9% | 28.0% | D+41.9 |
| Precinct -15071507 | 1,480 | 1,459 | 40 | 2,979 | 49.7% | 49.0% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct -25032503 | 1,830 | 966 | 52 | 2,848 | 64.3% | 33.9% | D+30.3 |
| Precinct -34693469 | 1,767 | 989 | 45 | 2,801 | 63.1% | 35.3% | D+27.8 |
| Precinct -51055105 | 1,885 | 797 | 56 | 2,738 | 68.8% | 29.1% | D+39.7 |
| Precinct -44554455 | 1,037 | 1,561 | 49 | 2,647 | 39.2% | 59.0% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct -25112511 | 2,149 | 443 | 45 | 2,637 | 81.5% | 16.8% | D+64.7 |
| Precinct -52075207 | 1,857 | 655 | 49 | 2,561 | 72.5% | 25.6% | D+46.9 |
| Precinct -41674167 | 1,088 | 1,409 | 41 | 2,538 | 42.9% | 55.5% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -41614161 | 973 | 1,526 | 26 | 2,525 | 38.5% | 60.4% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -41034103 | 1,392 | 1,062 | 43 | 2,497 | 55.7% | 42.5% | D+13.2 |
| Precinct -52515251 | 1,239 | 1,128 | 37 | 2,404 | 51.5% | 46.9% | D+4.6 |
| Precinct -34673467 | 1,372 | 993 | 36 | 2,401 | 57.1% | 41.4% | D+15.8 |
| Precinct -13211321 | 2,036 | 245 | 40 | 2,321 | 87.7% | 10.6% | D+77.2 |
| Precinct -52615261 | 1,065 | 1,146 | 40 | 2,251 | 47.3% | 50.9% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct -23652365 | 527 | 1,663 | 14 | 2,204 | 23.9% | 75.5% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -44614461 | 807 | 1,165 | 46 | 2,018 | 40.0% | 57.7% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct -31033103 | 1,196 | 734 | 27 | 1,957 | 61.1% | 37.5% | D+23.6 |
| Precinct -31103110 | 1,268 | 634 | 44 | 1,946 | 65.2% | 32.6% | D+32.6 |
| Precinct -52195219 | 1,107 | 792 | 39 | 1,938 | 57.1% | 40.9% | D+16.3 |
| Precinct -52245224 | 1,323 | 508 | 31 | 1,862 | 71.1% | 27.3% | D+43.8 |
| Precinct -52635263 | 851 | 970 | 25 | 1,846 | 46.1% | 52.5% | R+6.4 |
| Precinct -12031203 | 1,288 | 440 | 27 | 1,755 | 73.4% | 25.1% | D+48.3 |
| Precinct -52845284 | 822 | 870 | 25 | 1,717 | 47.9% | 50.7% | R+2.8 |
| Precinct -44054405 | 735 | 942 | 32 | 1,709 | 43.0% | 55.1% | R+12.1 |
| Precinct -41634163 | 830 | 834 | 35 | 1,699 | 48.9% | 49.1% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct -25072507 | 1,330 | 313 | 48 | 1,691 | 78.7% | 18.5% | D+60.1 |
| Precinct -34123412 | 1,094 | 537 | 30 | 1,661 | 65.9% | 32.3% | D+33.5 |
| Precinct -51535153 | 735 | 862 | 34 | 1,631 | 45.1% | 52.9% | R+7.8 |
| Precinct -15011501 | 1,265 | 328 | 33 | 1,626 | 77.8% | 20.2% | D+57.6 |
| Precinct -34033403 | 910 | 605 | 28 | 1,543 | 59.0% | 39.2% | D+19.8 |
| Precinct -34553455 | 818 | 670 | 37 | 1,525 | 53.6% | 43.9% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -34613461 | 765 | 734 | 22 | 1,521 | 50.3% | 48.3% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -44084408 | 675 | 763 | 30 | 1,468 | 46.0% | 52.0% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct -34113411 | 1,060 | 371 | 32 | 1,463 | 72.5% | 25.4% | D+47.1 |
| Precinct -35073507 | 1,028 | 402 | 33 | 1,463 | 70.3% | 27.5% | D+42.8 |
| Precinct -41534153 | 778 | 649 | 29 | 1,456 | 53.4% | 44.6% | D+8.9 |
| Precinct -35013501 | 981 | 434 | 31 | 1,446 | 67.8% | 30.0% | D+37.8 |
| Precinct -13091309 | 1,370 | 43 | 25 | 1,438 | 95.3% | 3.0% | D+92.3 |
| Precinct -31013101 | 907 | 496 | 29 | 1,432 | 63.3% | 34.6% | D+28.7 |
| Precinct -52145214 | 894 | 446 | 29 | 1,369 | 65.3% | 32.6% | D+32.7 |
| Precinct -13131313 | 970 | 362 | 19 | 1,351 | 71.8% | 26.8% | D+45.0 |
| Precinct -23592359 | 775 | 542 | 21 | 1,338 | 57.9% | 40.5% | D+17.4 |
| Precinct -34533453 | 813 | 501 | 22 | 1,336 | 60.9% | 37.5% | D+23.4 |
| Precinct -44034403 | 573 | 728 | 30 | 1,331 | 43.1% | 54.7% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -51155115 | 867 | 445 | 17 | 1,329 | 65.2% | 33.5% | D+31.8 |
| Precinct -12051205 | 941 | 338 | 29 | 1,308 | 71.9% | 25.8% | D+46.1 |
| Precinct -13551355 | 1,012 | 240 | 21 | 1,273 | 79.5% | 18.9% | D+60.6 |
| Precinct -44534453 | 507 | 722 | 12 | 1,241 | 40.9% | 58.2% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -13011301 | 710 | 511 | 18 | 1,239 | 57.3% | 41.2% | D+16.1 |
| Precinct -44584458 | 473 | 717 | 19 | 1,209 | 39.1% | 59.3% | R+20.2 |
| Precinct -22532253 | 537 | 631 | 17 | 1,185 | 45.3% | 53.2% | R+7.9 |
| Precinct -34593459 | 600 | 554 | 19 | 1,173 | 51.2% | 47.2% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -34013401 | 800 | 341 | 28 | 1,169 | 68.4% | 29.2% | D+39.3 |
| Precinct -52205220 | 762 | 370 | 17 | 1,149 | 66.3% | 32.2% | D+34.1 |
| Precinct -41014101 | 680 | 407 | 31 | 1,118 | 60.8% | 36.4% | D+24.4 |
| Precinct -51105110 | 754 | 343 | 21 | 1,118 | 67.4% | 30.7% | D+36.8 |
| Precinct -15051505 | 892 | 195 | 25 | 1,112 | 80.2% | 17.5% | D+62.7 |
| Precinct -25132513 | 797 | 273 | 18 | 1,088 | 73.3% | 25.1% | D+48.2 |
| Precinct -13171317 | 991 | 64 | 12 | 1,067 | 92.9% | 6.0% | D+86.9 |
| Precinct -25092509 | 792 | 239 | 23 | 1,054 | 75.1% | 22.7% | D+52.5 |
| Precinct -13191319 | 957 | 80 | 12 | 1,049 | 91.2% | 7.6% | D+83.6 |
| Precinct -51035103 | 657 | 290 | 29 | 976 | 67.3% | 29.7% | D+37.6 |
| Precinct -52015201 | 727 | 211 | 22 | 960 | 75.7% | 22.0% | D+53.8 |
| Precinct -13021302 | 420 | 499 | 10 | 929 | 45.2% | 53.7% | R+8.5 |
| Precinct -31073107 | 593 | 304 | 16 | 913 | 65.0% | 33.3% | D+31.7 |
| Precinct -13611361 | 681 | 211 | 6 | 898 | 75.8% | 23.5% | D+52.3 |
| Precinct -22522252 | 371 | 508 | 11 | 890 | 41.7% | 57.1% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -23062306 | 717 | 142 | 13 | 872 | 82.2% | 16.3% | D+65.9 |
| Precinct -52115211 | 600 | 255 | 13 | 868 | 69.1% | 29.4% | D+39.7 |
| Precinct -52035203 | 672 | 111 | 14 | 797 | 84.3% | 13.9% | D+70.4 |
| Precinct -24512451 | 390 | 382 | 16 | 788 | 49.5% | 48.5% | D+1.0 |
| Precinct -44514451 | 392 | 374 | 12 | 778 | 50.4% | 48.1% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -52055205 | 557 | 186 | 11 | 754 | 73.9% | 24.7% | D+49.2 |
| Precinct -41734173 | 281 | 460 | 9 | 750 | 37.5% | 61.3% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct -34733473 | 333 | 408 | 7 | 748 | 44.5% | 54.5% | R+10.0 |
| Precinct -25022502 | 414 | 318 | 14 | 746 | 55.5% | 42.6% | D+12.9 |
| Precinct -12571257 | 242 | 447 | 2 | 691 | 35.0% | 64.7% | R+29.7 |
| Precinct -41054105 | 395 | 277 | 11 | 683 | 57.8% | 40.6% | D+17.3 |
| Precinct -52215221 | 440 | 229 | 11 | 680 | 64.7% | 33.7% | D+31.0 |
| Precinct -34573457 | 328 | 302 | 12 | 642 | 51.1% | 47.0% | D+4.0 |
| Precinct -25042504 | 472 | 154 | 15 | 641 | 73.6% | 24.0% | D+49.6 |
| Precinct -35093509 | 420 | 197 | 12 | 629 | 66.8% | 31.3% | D+35.5 |
| Precinct -41574157 | 347 | 269 | 11 | 627 | 55.3% | 42.9% | D+12.4 |
| Precinct -35023502 | 484 | 129 | 11 | 624 | 77.6% | 20.7% | D+56.9 |
| Precinct -15021502 | 463 | 140 | 17 | 620 | 74.7% | 22.6% | D+52.1 |
| Precinct -13271327 | 567 | 39 | 10 | 616 | 92.0% | 6.3% | D+85.7 |
| Precinct -15031503 | 408 | 182 | 8 | 598 | 68.2% | 30.4% | D+37.8 |
| Precinct -41844184 | 298 | 273 | 6 | 577 | 51.6% | 47.3% | D+4.3 |
| Precinct -41554155 | 397 | 172 | 3 | 572 | 69.4% | 30.1% | D+39.3 |
| Precinct -44014401 | 256 | 277 | 13 | 546 | 46.9% | 50.7% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct -41594159 | 269 | 254 | 6 | 529 | 50.9% | 48.0% | D+2.8 |
| Precinct -23662366 | 170 | 339 | 5 | 514 | 33.1% | 66.0% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -51545154 | 226 | 275 | 11 | 512 | 44.1% | 53.7% | R+9.6 |
| Precinct -12551255 | 291 | 162 | 4 | 457 | 63.7% | 35.4% | D+28.2 |
| Precinct -13121312 | 406 | 42 | 7 | 455 | 89.2% | 9.2% | D+80.0 |
| Precinct -41094109 | 236 | 195 | 10 | 441 | 53.5% | 44.2% | D+9.3 |
| Precinct -13031303 | 239 | 144 | 20 | 403 | 59.3% | 35.7% | D+23.6 |
| Precinct -52095209 | 285 | 103 | 8 | 396 | 72.0% | 26.0% | D+46.0 |
| Precinct -34773477 | 140 | 204 | 0 | 344 | 40.7% | 59.3% | R+18.6 |
| Precinct -12511251 | 255 | 59 | 4 | 318 | 80.2% | 18.6% | D+61.6 |
| Precinct -24012401 | 197 | 84 | 5 | 286 | 68.9% | 29.4% | D+39.5 |
| Precinct -52275227 | 166 | 107 | 1 | 274 | 60.6% | 39.1% | D+21.5 |
| Precinct -13511351 | 186 | 76 | 3 | 265 | 70.2% | 28.7% | D+41.5 |
| Precinct -23032303 | 235 | 12 | 4 | 251 | 93.6% | 4.8% | D+88.8 |
| Precinct -23632363 | 124 | 88 | 2 | 214 | 57.9% | 41.1% | D+16.8 |
| Precinct -34753475 | 122 | 73 | 3 | 198 | 61.6% | 36.9% | D+24.7 |
| Precinct -34793479 | 117 | 46 | 1 | 164 | 71.3% | 28.0% | D+43.3 |
| Precinct -52025202 | 124 | 32 | 3 | 159 | 78.0% | 20.1% | D+57.9 |
| Precinct -51655165 | 87 | 61 | 4 | 152 | 57.2% | 40.1% | D+17.1 |
| Precinct -44104410 | 61 | 84 | 2 | 147 | 41.5% | 57.1% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct -23802380 | 104 | 35 | 3 | 142 | 73.2% | 24.6% | D+48.6 |
| Precinct -52125212 | 74 | 63 | 2 | 139 | 53.2% | 45.3% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct -52295229 | 60 | 63 | 2 | 125 | 48.0% | 50.4% | R+2.4 |
| Precinct -23552355 | 68 | 48 | 1 | 117 | 58.1% | 41.0% | D+17.1 |
| Precinct -51015101 | 66 | 37 | 4 | 107 | 61.7% | 34.6% | D+27.1 |
| Precinct -35083508 | 61 | 44 | 1 | 106 | 57.5% | 41.5% | D+16.0 |
| Precinct -51045104 | 41 | 32 | 2 | 75 | 54.7% | 42.7% | D+12.0 |
| Precinct -34133413 | 32 | 23 | 3 | 58 | 55.2% | 39.7% | D+15.5 |
| Precinct -34513451 | 23 | 27 | 3 | 53 | 43.4% | 50.9% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -52625262 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 49 | 77.6% | 20.4% | D+57.1 |
| Precinct -35513551 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 27 | 59.3% | 37.0% | D+22.2 |
| Precinct -13221322 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 81.8% | 18.2% | D+63.6 |
| Precinct -23072307 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 42.9% | 57.1% | R+14.3 |
| Precinct -13621362 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 |
presidential history
Party record book
Leon County, FL · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1884) · 35 presidential cycles · 35 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
100.0%
634 votes · D+100.0
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 93.2%
Republican
James G. Blaine1884
72.5%
2,198 votes · R+45.0
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 63.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
103,517votes
63.5% of the vote · D+28.3
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 94,520 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
60,397votes
38.5% of the vote · D+21.8
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 57,453 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+102.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+77.0 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Grover Cleveland, 1892 · +98.3 pts
Republican
Barry Goldwater1964
+38.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+16.3 · U.S. D+22.6
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · +4.5 pts
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.2 points.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 205,884 | 108,130 | 57,117 | 39,551 | 1,086 |
| 2018 | 214,836 | 112,577 | 58,121 | 42,317 | 1,821 |
| 2019 | 215,660 | 113,405 | 57,219 | 42,831 | 2,205 |
| 2020 | 220,475 | 117,340 | 58,577 | 41,533 | 3,025 |
| 2021 | 202,291 | 106,769 | 54,034 | 38,382 | 3,106 |
| 2023 | 196,213 | 99,264 | 53,742 | 39,326 | 3,881 |
| 2024 | 205,191 | 100,000 | 57,746 | 41,925 | 5,520 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−1,279 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,984 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,104 in average income, against $84,431 for residents who stayed — 38% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+7.5 on average — 29 points more Republican-leaning than Leon County, FL itself (D+21.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Gadsden County, FL517D+30.7
- Broward County, FL368D+17.0
- Miami-Dade County, FL354R+11.4
- Wakulla County, FL324R+44.3
- Hillsborough County, FL276R+3.1
- Orange County, FL276D+13.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Wakulla County, FL564
- Gadsden County, FL560
- Duval County, FL397
- Hillsborough County, FL377
- Orange County, FL308
- Broward County, FL274
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +401 |
| 2012 | +3,159 |
| 2013 | −3,613 |
| 2014 | −34 |
| 2015 | +247 |
| 2016 | −1,195 |
| 2017 | +2,230 |
| 2018 | −811 |
| 2019 | +479 |
| 2021 | +1,363 |
| 2022 | +572 |
| 2023 | −1,840 |
| 2024 | −1,663 |
| 2025 | −1,279 |
Home to Tallahassee and Florida State University, Leon County delivers some of the largest Democratic margins in the state, running roughly 22 points left of the statewide presidential result in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 100.0 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 45.0 points in 1884. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.8 points.
A population of 297,542, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,287 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Durham County and Alachua County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Leon County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12073/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.