- Lead
- 55,954
- Total
- 226,788
- vs nation
- R+23.2
- Turnout
- 71.8%
Lake County, FL
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.8% of 318,447 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 42,354
- Total
- 211,314
- vs nation
- R+24.5
- Turnout
- 77.4%
- Lead
- 39,350
- Total
- 170,462
- vs nation
- R+25.2
- Turnout
- 70.8%
- Lead
- 25,844
- Total
- 150,811
- vs nation
- R+21.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 19,854
- Total
- 146,926
- vs nation
- R+20.8
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 26,168
- Total
- 123,950
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 13,439
- Total
- 88,611
- vs nation
- R+15.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 5,345
- Total
- 73,923
- vs nation
- R+15.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+24.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 412,9242024 5-year
- Median household income
- $73,1612024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 63.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 18.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+85.7 in 1892MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lee County, FL · twin score 91.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.8%228,723 participants ÷ 318,447 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +23.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- +0.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 48.2%–54.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 173,485 | 244,876 | 70.8% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 157,443 | 259,287 | 60.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 212,505 | 274,630 | 77.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 160,572 | 298,772 | 53.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 228,723 | 318,447 | 71.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
92 precincts · 227,514 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -145145 | 3,974 | 5,181 | 117 | 9,272 | 42.9% | 55.9% | R+13.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -235235 | 3,274 | 3,866 | 106 | 7,246 | 45.2% | 53.4% | R+8.2 |
| Precinct -180180 | 3,618 | 3,159 | 89 | 6,866 | 52.7% | 46.0% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct -125125 | 2,808 | 3,879 | 77 | 6,764 | 41.5% | 57.3% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct -155155 | 2,485 | 3,898 | 83 | 6,466 | 38.4% | 60.3% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -170170 | 2,526 | 2,710 | 50 | 5,286 | 47.8% | 51.3% | R+3.5 |
| Precinct -230230 | 2,220 | 2,891 | 49 | 5,160 | 43.0% | 56.0% | R+13.0 |
| Precinct -485485 | 2,166 | 2,885 | 69 | 5,120 | 42.3% | 56.3% | R+14.0 |
| Precinct -365365 | 1,658 | 3,190 | 49 | 4,897 | 33.9% | 65.1% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -320320 | 1,452 | 3,216 | 47 | 4,715 | 30.8% | 68.2% | R+37.4 |
| Precinct -435435 | 940 | 3,508 | 43 | 4,491 | 20.9% | 78.1% | R+57.2 |
| Precinct -215215 | 1,959 | 2,447 | 48 | 4,454 | 44.0% | 54.9% | R+11.0 |
| Precinct -165165 | 1,495 | 2,566 | 57 | 4,118 | 36.3% | 62.3% | R+26.0 |
| Precinct -445445 | 1,282 | 2,595 | 53 | 3,930 | 32.6% | 66.0% | R+33.4 |
| Precinct -175175 | 2,045 | 1,636 | 54 | 3,735 | 54.8% | 43.8% | D+11.0 |
| Precinct -105105 | 1,524 | 2,160 | 49 | 3,733 | 40.8% | 57.9% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct -460460 | 954 | 2,665 | 59 | 3,678 | 25.9% | 72.5% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -557557 | 897 | 2,745 | 22 | 3,664 | 24.5% | 74.9% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct -555555 | 1,428 | 2,043 | 39 | 3,510 | 40.7% | 58.2% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct -455455 | 1,025 | 2,369 | 32 | 3,426 | 29.9% | 69.1% | R+39.2 |
| Precinct -500500 | 1,204 | 2,148 | 32 | 3,384 | 35.6% | 63.5% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct -330330 | 1,314 | 1,940 | 50 | 3,304 | 39.8% | 58.7% | R+18.9 |
| Precinct -530530 | 949 | 2,273 | 41 | 3,263 | 29.1% | 69.7% | R+40.6 |
| Precinct -310310 | 1,017 | 2,146 | 35 | 3,198 | 31.8% | 67.1% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -140140 | 1,303 | 1,850 | 28 | 3,181 | 41.0% | 58.2% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -225225 | 1,630 | 1,496 | 41 | 3,167 | 51.5% | 47.2% | D+4.2 |
| Precinct -440440 | 623 | 2,400 | 35 | 3,058 | 20.4% | 78.5% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct -210210 | 946 | 2,069 | 33 | 3,048 | 31.0% | 67.9% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -540540 | 847 | 2,155 | 28 | 3,030 | 28.0% | 71.1% | R+43.2 |
| Precinct -335335 | 1,253 | 1,672 | 41 | 2,966 | 42.2% | 56.4% | R+14.1 |
| Precinct -535535 | 1,033 | 1,898 | 27 | 2,958 | 34.9% | 64.2% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct -355355 | 1,172 | 1,591 | 31 | 2,794 | 41.9% | 56.9% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -325325 | 975 | 1,781 | 22 | 2,778 | 35.1% | 64.1% | R+29.0 |
| Precinct -350350 | 1,167 | 1,564 | 31 | 2,762 | 42.3% | 56.6% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -240240 | 1,077 | 1,633 | 17 | 2,727 | 39.5% | 59.9% | R+20.4 |
| Precinct -580580 | 798 | 1,832 | 33 | 2,663 | 30.0% | 68.8% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -130130 | 868 | 1,759 | 33 | 2,660 | 32.6% | 66.1% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -360360 | 914 | 1,566 | 35 | 2,515 | 36.3% | 62.3% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -397397 | 930 | 1,548 | 13 | 2,491 | 37.3% | 62.1% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct -520520 | 571 | 1,834 | 30 | 2,435 | 23.4% | 75.3% | R+51.9 |
| Precinct -560560 | 1,007 | 1,344 | 30 | 2,381 | 42.3% | 56.4% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct -545545 | 1,127 | 1,217 | 28 | 2,372 | 47.5% | 51.3% | R+3.8 |
| Precinct -505505 | 771 | 1,446 | 14 | 2,231 | 34.6% | 64.8% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -515515 | 626 | 1,569 | 21 | 2,216 | 28.2% | 70.8% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -415415 | 461 | 1,730 | 14 | 2,205 | 20.9% | 78.5% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -575575 | 928 | 1,246 | 27 | 2,201 | 42.2% | 56.6% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -345345 | 816 | 1,262 | 27 | 2,105 | 38.8% | 60.0% | R+21.2 |
| Precinct -110110 | 771 | 1,317 | 7 | 2,095 | 36.8% | 62.9% | R+26.1 |
| Precinct -525525 | 762 | 1,241 | 22 | 2,025 | 37.6% | 61.3% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -185185 | 1,001 | 955 | 14 | 1,970 | 50.8% | 48.5% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -410410 | 360 | 1,456 | 21 | 1,837 | 19.6% | 79.3% | R+59.7 |
| Precinct -135135 | 828 | 944 | 19 | 1,791 | 46.2% | 52.7% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -380380 | 535 | 1,229 | 15 | 1,779 | 30.1% | 69.1% | R+39.0 |
| Precinct -375375 | 367 | 1,266 | 13 | 1,646 | 22.3% | 76.9% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -245245 | 788 | 813 | 13 | 1,614 | 48.8% | 50.4% | R+1.5 |
| Precinct -395395 | 540 | 1,047 | 14 | 1,601 | 33.7% | 65.4% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -250250 | 642 | 891 | 22 | 1,555 | 41.3% | 57.3% | R+16.0 |
| Precinct -465465 | 628 | 870 | 18 | 1,516 | 41.4% | 57.4% | R+16.0 |
| Precinct -100100 | 553 | 901 | 15 | 1,469 | 37.6% | 61.3% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct -388388 | 564 | 846 | 10 | 1,420 | 39.7% | 59.6% | R+19.9 |
| Precinct -405405 | 231 | 1,171 | 7 | 1,409 | 16.4% | 83.1% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -550550 | 489 | 895 | 7 | 1,391 | 35.2% | 64.3% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct -450450 | 561 | 772 | 17 | 1,350 | 41.6% | 57.2% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct -393393 | 365 | 927 | 16 | 1,308 | 27.9% | 70.9% | R+43.0 |
| Precinct -510510 | 407 | 860 | 9 | 1,276 | 31.9% | 67.4% | R+35.5 |
| Precinct -120120 | 417 | 827 | 14 | 1,258 | 33.1% | 65.7% | R+32.6 |
| Precinct -385385 | 434 | 774 | 11 | 1,219 | 35.6% | 63.5% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct -390390 | 432 | 749 | 7 | 1,188 | 36.4% | 63.0% | R+26.7 |
| Precinct -425425 | 225 | 952 | 6 | 1,183 | 19.0% | 80.5% | R+61.5 |
| Precinct -200200 | 401 | 748 | 18 | 1,167 | 34.4% | 64.1% | R+29.7 |
| Precinct -399399 | 441 | 716 | 9 | 1,166 | 37.8% | 61.4% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -150150 | 183 | 973 | 9 | 1,165 | 15.7% | 83.5% | R+67.8 |
| Precinct -490490 | 412 | 724 | 12 | 1,148 | 35.9% | 63.1% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -475475 | 440 | 689 | 12 | 1,141 | 38.6% | 60.4% | R+21.8 |
| Precinct -400400 | 223 | 883 | 7 | 1,113 | 20.0% | 79.3% | R+59.3 |
| Precinct -220220 | 481 | 599 | 5 | 1,085 | 44.3% | 55.2% | R+10.9 |
| Precinct -115115 | 343 | 720 | 10 | 1,073 | 32.0% | 67.1% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct -370370 | 403 | 660 | 10 | 1,073 | 37.6% | 61.5% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct -570570 | 386 | 636 | 6 | 1,028 | 37.5% | 61.9% | R+24.3 |
| Precinct -300300 | 347 | 655 | 13 | 1,015 | 34.2% | 64.5% | R+30.3 |
| Precinct -205205 | 284 | 692 | 15 | 991 | 28.7% | 69.8% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct -305305 | 277 | 497 | 5 | 779 | 35.6% | 63.8% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct -480480 | 501 | 234 | 11 | 746 | 67.2% | 31.4% | D+35.8 |
| Precinct -585585 | 228 | 400 | 5 | 633 | 36.0% | 63.2% | R+27.2 |
| Precinct -383383 | 121 | 493 | 8 | 622 | 19.5% | 79.3% | R+59.8 |
| Precinct -340340 | 198 | 399 | 7 | 604 | 32.8% | 66.1% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -470470 | 267 | 326 | 6 | 599 | 44.6% | 54.4% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -430430 | 193 | 274 | 2 | 469 | 41.2% | 58.4% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct -420420 | 194 | 240 | 5 | 439 | 44.2% | 54.7% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct -103103 | 96 | 278 | 3 | 377 | 25.5% | 73.7% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -377377 | 58 | 232 | 1 | 291 | 19.9% | 79.7% | R+59.8 |
| Precinct -565565 | 112 | 151 | 3 | 266 | 42.1% | 56.8% | R+14.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +85.7% |
| 1896 | +45.8% |
| 1900 | +50.2% |
| 1904 | +52.3% |
| 1908 | +34.5% |
| 1912 | +62.1% |
| 1916 | +42.5% |
| 1920 | +38.8% |
| 1924 | +16.7% |
| 1928 | −38.4% |
| 1932 | +24.4% |
| 1936 | +33.1% |
| 1940 | +33.4% |
| 1944 | +23.2% |
| 1948 | −1.3% |
| 1952 | −41.3% |
| 1956 | −43.1% |
| 1960 | −44.9% |
| 1964 | −24.8% |
| 1968 | −28.9% |
| 1972 | −65.4% |
| 1976 | −16.1% |
| 1980 | −32.9% |
| 1984 | −48.6% |
| 1988 | −37.7% |
| 1992 | −10.9% |
| 1996 | −7.2% |
| 2000 | −15.2% |
| 2004 | −21.1% |
| 2008 | −13.5% |
| 2012 | −17.1% |
| 2016 | −23.1% |
| 2020 | −20.0% |
| 2024 | −24.7% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 41.6%Charles O. Andrews4,283 | 15.0%Howard C. Babcock1,544 | 10,305 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.7 points.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 223,527 | 68,681 | 98,505 | 55,471 | 870 |
| 2018 | 237,919 | 72,512 | 104,354 | 59,576 | 1,477 |
| 2019 | 244,088 | 73,071 | 106,627 | 62,457 | 1,933 |
| 2020 | 267,068 | 78,957 | 117,356 | 67,380 | 3,375 |
| 2021 | 269,370 | 77,311 | 117,159 | 70,824 | 4,076 |
| 2023 | 229,501 | 58,351 | 109,850 | 55,777 | 5,523 |
| 2024 | 273,896 | 69,035 | 129,166 | 66,972 | 8,723 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+12,230 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +136,867 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $80,888 in average income, against $77,197 for residents who stayed — 5% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+0.7 on average — 24 points more Democratic-leaning than Lake County, FL itself (R+24.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Orange County, FL4,390D+13.6
- Seminole County, FL944R+3.6
- Polk County, FL826R+20.7
- Osceola County, FL823R+1.5
- Sumter County, FL737R+37.6
- Marion County, FL649R+31.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Orange County, FL2,145
- Marion County, FL957
- Polk County, FL855
- Sumter County, FL747
- Seminole County, FL507
- Osceola County, FL504
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2,595 |
| 2012 | +2,917 |
| 2013 | +4,090 |
| 2014 | +6,996 |
| 2015 | +9,660 |
| 2016 | +9,535 |
| 2017 | +10,419 |
| 2018 | +11,235 |
| 2019 | +11,162 |
| 2021 | +12,540 |
| 2022 | +14,145 |
| 2023 | +14,123 |
| 2024 | +15,220 |
| 2025 | +12,230 |
Tucked between Orlando and Ocala, Lake County has absorbed waves of retirees and commuters whose arrival has reinforced rather than diluted its Republican lean, pushing the 2024 presidential margin to nearly 25 points.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 85.7 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 65.4 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.7 points.
A population of 412,924, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,161 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lee County and Brevard County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lake County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12069/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.