Tampa, Florida
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +24.8% |
| 2008 | +37.5% |
| 2012 | +38.4% |
| 2016 | +26.6% |
| 2020 | +24.6% |
| 2024 | +11.8% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 54.9%Harris93,225 | 43.1%Trump73,243 | 2.1% | D+11.8 | R+12.8 | D+13.2 | 169,953 | |
| D | 61.5%Biden115,710 | 37.0%Trump69,503 | 1.5% | D+24.6 | R+2.0 | D+20.1 | 188,089 | |
| D | 60.8%Clinton99,067 | 34.2%Trump55,748 | 5.0% | D+26.6 | R+11.8 | D+24.5 | 162,914 | |
| D | 68.7%Obama72,811 | 30.3%Romney32,089 | 1.0% | D+38.4 | D+0.9 | D+34.6 | 105,965 | |
| D | 68.2%Obama70,133 | 30.7%McCain31,535 | 1.1% | D+37.5 | D+12.7 | D+30.3 | 102,809 | |
| D | 61.9%Kerry59,961 | 37.1%Bush35,916 | 1.1% | D+24.8 | — | D+27.3 | 96,904 |
Tampa's electorate blends a large Hispanic community, a growing young professional class, and an established Black voter base, producing competitive municipal contests even as statewide races have shifted decisively in one direction.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.4 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 12.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.8 points.
A population of 401,618, a 44% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,475 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of New York and Hollywood.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Tampa, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/1271000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.