Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)
presidential margin
2008D+0.82012R+1.92016R+8.52020R+8.12024R+15.8
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+15.8
2024
median income$73,629U.S. $80,734 · FL $74,568
median age44.7U.S. 39.1 · FL 43.1
poverty rate12.1%U.S. 12.5% · FL 12.6%
bachelor’s+ (25+)33.0%U.S. 35.6% · FL 34.2%
non-english22.3%U.S. 22.3% · FL 30.7%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German11.5%
English9.9%
Irish9.8%
Puerto Rican6.3%
Mexican4.6%
Cuban3.7%
African American†7.9%
Haitian0.8%
Jamaican0.7%
Asian Indian1.0%
Vietnamese0.6%
Filipino0.5%
religion
other traditions
Mainline3.6%
Black Protestant1.6%
Other Christian1.4%
Latter-day Saints0.6%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida

Akashic
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)TrumpR+15.8
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FLA map of the constituent counties of Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Pinellas County, FL · R+5.2Pasco County, FL · R+25.2Hardee County, FL · R+56.3Polk County, FL · R+20.7Sarasota County, FL · R+18.2Hernando County, FL · R+37.1Manatee County, FL · R+23.5Highlands County, FL · R+40.8Hillsborough County, FL · R+3.1Citrus County, FL · R+45.9
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican57.4%1,511,537
Kamala HarrisDemocratic41.6%1,095,263
Jill SteinGreen1.0%25,371
D+60
R+60
10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (10 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Citrus County, FLRepublicanR+45.9
Hardee County, FLRepublicanR+56.3
Hernando County, FLRepublicanR+37.1
Highlands County, FLRepublicanR+40.8
Hillsborough County, FLRepublicanR+3.1
Manatee County, FLRepublicanR+23.5
Pasco County, FLRepublicanR+25.2
Pinellas County, FLRepublicanR+5.2
Polk County, FLRepublicanR+20.7
Sarasota County, FLRepublicanR+18.2
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
41.6%Harris1,095,263
57.4%Trump1,511,537
1.0%Stein25,371
−15.8%
2,632,171
R
45.4%Biden1,212,062
53.5%Trump1,427,930
1.0%Jorgensen27,330
−8.1%
2,667,322
R
44.0%Clinton989,936
52.4%Trump1,180,217
3.6%Johnson80,149
−8.5%
2,250,302
R
48.5%Obama984,979
50.4%Romney1,023,790
1.1%Johnson21,534
−1.9%
2,030,303
D
49.9%Obama1,004,313
49.1%McCain988,732
0.9%Nader18,849
+0.8%
2,011,894
R
45.4%Kerry844,014
53.7%Bush997,123
0.9%Nader17,220
−8.2%
1,858,357
R
47.3%Gore711,801
49.8%Bush750,131
2.9%Nader43,539
−2.5%
1,505,471
D
46.6%Clinton635,027
42.5%Dole579,193
10.8%Perot147,417
+4.1%
1,361,637
R
36.8%Clinton517,149
40.2%Bush564,755
23.0%Perot322,539
−3.4%
1,404,443
R
38.7%Dukakis446,191
60.7%Bush700,543
0.6%Paul6,431
−22.1%
1,153,165
R
33.1%Mondale374,121
66.9%Reagan755,445
0.0%Other231
−33.8%
1,129,797
R
38.6%Carter378,687
56.2%Reagan551,188
5.2%Anderson51,083
−17.6%
980,958
R
49.1%Carter395,142
49.6%Ford398,780
1.3%McCarthy10,362
−0.5%
804,284
R
26.8%McGovern178,366
73.0%Nixon486,449
0.2%Schmitz1,310
−46.3%
666,125
R
28.7%Humphrey161,244
45.4%Nixon255,323
25.9%Wallace145,485
−16.7%
562,052
D
52.1%Johnson245,153
47.9%Goldwater225,340
0.0%
+4.2%
470,493
R
42.6%Kennedy175,326
57.4%Nixon235,928
0.0%
−14.7%
411,254
R
37.4%Stevenson107,124
62.6%Eisenhower179,161
0.0%
−25.2%
286,285
R
39.7%Stevenson94,520
60.3%Eisenhower143,318
0.0%
−20.5%
237,838
D
43.2%Truman59,948
41.8%Dewey57,952
15.0%Thurmond20,859
+1.4%
138,759
D
68.3%Roosevelt80,981
31.7%Dewey37,613
0.0%
+36.6%
118,594
D
71.9%Roosevelt86,850
28.1%Willkie33,860
0.0%
+43.9%
120,710
D
70.9%Roosevelt57,370
29.1%Landon23,535
0.0%
+41.8%
80,905
D
72.4%Roosevelt51,902
27.6%Hoover19,800
0.0%
+44.8%
71,702
R
37.6%Smith24,981
60.6%Hoover40,253
1.8%Thomas1,190
−23.0%
66,424
D
56.3%Davis14,196
31.3%Coolidge7,893
12.5%La Follette3,146
+25.0%
25,235
D
59.0%Cox17,971
32.2%Harding9,823
8.8%Debs2,680
+26.7%
30,474
D
70.4%Wilson11,563
14.8%Hughes2,433
14.8%Benson2,422
+55.6%
16,418
D
68.4%Wilson6,900
4.9%Taft496
26.7%Roosevelt2,696
+63.5%
10,092
D
73.1%Bryan5,665
11.9%Taft921
15.1%Debs1,167
+61.2%
7,753
D
70.8%Parker4,431
13.8%Roosevelt861
15.5%Debs969
+57.0%
6,261
D
76.1%Bryan4,932
9.4%McKinley608
14.5%Woolley943
+66.7%
6,483
D
76.4%Bryan4,810
18.1%McKinley1,140
5.5%Palmer349
+58.3%
6,299
D
88.5%Cleveland4,949
0.0%Harrison0
11.5%Weaver640
+88.5%
5,589
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −15.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2012−15.8%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892+88.5%
1896+58.3%
1900+66.7%
1904+57.0%
1908+61.2%
1912+63.5%
1916+55.6%
1920+26.7%
1924+25.0%
1928−23.0%
1932+44.8%
1936+41.8%
1940+43.9%
1944+36.6%
1948+1.4%
1952−20.5%
1956−25.2%
1960−14.7%
1964+4.2%
1968−16.7%
1972−46.3%
1976−0.5%
1980−17.6%
1984−33.8%
1988−22.1%
1992−3.4%
1996+4.1%
2000−2.5%
2004−8.2%
2008+0.8%
2012−1.9%
2016−8.5%
2020−8.1%
2024−15.8%
DemocraticRepublican
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Voter registration in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)Registered voters by party of registration, 2017–2024. Latest total 3,389,809 in 2024.875.3K1.8M2.6M3.5M3.4M20172024
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
Voter registration in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)
YearTotal registeredDemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther
20173,061,5181,060,6571,137,074846,94116,846
20183,202,4091,105,9271,183,786884,22328,473
20193,239,6941,108,5221,196,352897,61037,210
20203,501,0341,193,2461,313,100937,91556,773
20213,424,1301,136,2921,286,828937,54763,463
20233,152,448960,9591,281,978831,92877,583
20243,389,809997,4211,403,768881,069107,551
Source: Florida Division of Elections

Spanning Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties, this market blends a blue-leaning urban core with fast-growing suburban and retirement communities, making it a consistent battleground for statewide races.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 88.5 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 46.3 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 7.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.8 points.

A population of 5,278,573, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,629 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne and West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce.

Political twins — media markets

The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne
Florida
93.3twin score
population scalePuerto Rican ancestrymedian age
West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce
Florida
73.0twin score
median age12-yr trend% Catholic≠ 2000 margin
New York
New York
61.4twin score
Puerto Rican ancestry12-yr trendelasticity≠ 2000 margin

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/539/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota)

counties10
Citrus CountyHardee CountyHernando CountyHighlands CountyHillsborough CountyManatee CountyPasco CountyPinellas CountyPolk CountySarasota County

Frequently asked questions

How did Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida voted Republican by 15.8 points (R+15.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,632,171 votes cast, 1,095,263 went Democratic and 1,511,537 went Republican.
When did Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida?
Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida has a population of 5,278,573 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida?
Median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida is $73,629 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), Florida from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.