HarrisDemocratic31.1%34,431TrumpRepublican68.2%75,446SteinIndependent0.3%300
R+37.1- Lead
- 41,015
- Total
- 110,691
- vs nation
- R+35.6
- Turnout
- 68.3%
Akashiccounty
Hernando County, FL
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.3% of 163,458 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic34.4%37,519TrumpRepublican64.6%70,412JorgensenLibertarian0.6%686
R+30.2- Lead
- 32,893
- Total
- 108,922
- vs nation
- R+34.7
- Turnout
- 72.4%
ClintonDemocratic33.9%31,795TrumpRepublican62.9%58,970JohnsonLibertarian2.2%2,051
R+29.0- Lead
- 27,175
- Total
- 93,796
- vs nation
- R+31.1
- Turnout
- 68.3%
ObamaDemocratic45.2%37,830RomneyRepublican53.7%44,938OtherAll other candidates1.1%899
R+8.5- Lead
- 7,108
- Total
- 83,667
- vs nation
- R+12.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic47.7%41,886McCainRepublican51.2%45,021OtherAll other candidates1.1%994
R+3.6- Lead
- 3,135
- Total
- 87,901
- vs nation
- R+10.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic46.2%37,187BushRepublican52.9%42,635OtherAll other candidates0.9%725
R+6.8- Lead
- 5,448
- Total
- 80,547
- vs nation
- R+4.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.0%32,648BushRepublican47.0%30,658NaderGreen2.3%1,501
D+3.1- Lead
- 1,990
- Total
- 65,236
- vs nation
- D+2.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.1%28,524DoleRepublican38.0%22,046PerotReform12.5%7,272
D+11.2- Lead
- 6,478
- Total
- 58,066
- vs nation
- D+2.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+37.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 207,0182024 5-year
- Median household income
- $66,0582024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 72.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 17.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+81.8 in 1900MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+49.8 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Flagler County, FL · twin score 81.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.3%111,628 participants ÷ 163,458 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +20.7 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 47.6%–51.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 95,528 | 139,780 | 68.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 81,412 | 145,283 | 56.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 109,862 | 151,783 | 72.4% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 80,598 | 156,052 | 51.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 111,628 | 163,458 | 68.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
32 precincts · 111,052 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -310310 | 1,796 | 5,317 | 68 | 7,181 | 25.0% | 74.0% | R+49.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -520520 | 1,475 | 4,020 | 69 | 5,564 | 26.5% | 72.3% | R+45.7 |
| Precinct -430430 | 1,582 | 3,175 | 57 | 4,814 | 32.9% | 66.0% | R+33.1 |
| Precinct -250250 | 1,468 | 3,134 | 50 | 4,652 | 31.6% | 67.4% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct -340340 | 1,511 | 3,072 | 48 | 4,631 | 32.6% | 66.3% | R+33.7 |
| Precinct -300300 | 1,243 | 3,266 | 48 | 4,557 | 27.3% | 71.7% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -240240 | 1,541 | 2,945 | 65 | 4,551 | 33.9% | 64.7% | R+30.9 |
| Precinct -450450 | 1,318 | 3,141 | 49 | 4,508 | 29.2% | 69.7% | R+40.4 |
| Precinct -510510 | 1,563 | 2,811 | 57 | 4,431 | 35.3% | 63.4% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct -220220 | 1,453 | 2,646 | 41 | 4,140 | 35.1% | 63.9% | R+28.8 |
| Precinct -440440 | 1,480 | 2,533 | 50 | 4,063 | 36.4% | 62.3% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -230230 | 1,430 | 2,298 | 37 | 3,765 | 38.0% | 61.0% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -540540 | 1,118 | 2,501 | 49 | 3,668 | 30.5% | 68.2% | R+37.7 |
| Precinct -160160 | 1,144 | 2,336 | 44 | 3,524 | 32.5% | 66.3% | R+33.8 |
| Precinct -120120 | 1,200 | 2,101 | 38 | 3,339 | 35.9% | 62.9% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -350350 | 741 | 2,560 | 23 | 3,324 | 22.3% | 77.0% | R+54.7 |
| Precinct -110110 | 1,212 | 2,085 | 25 | 3,322 | 36.5% | 62.8% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct -550550 | 834 | 2,352 | 43 | 3,229 | 25.8% | 72.8% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct -400400 | 1,069 | 1,955 | 31 | 3,055 | 35.0% | 64.0% | R+29.0 |
| Precinct -420420 | 894 | 2,118 | 25 | 3,037 | 29.4% | 69.7% | R+40.3 |
| Precinct -360360 | 1,084 | 1,802 | 27 | 2,913 | 37.2% | 61.9% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -530530 | 525 | 1,950 | 27 | 2,502 | 21.0% | 77.9% | R+57.0 |
| Precinct -330330 | 638 | 1,798 | 18 | 2,454 | 26.0% | 73.3% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -320320 | 734 | 1,640 | 20 | 2,394 | 30.7% | 68.5% | R+37.8 |
| Precinct -130130 | 779 | 1,555 | 23 | 2,357 | 33.1% | 66.0% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -140140 | 812 | 1,498 | 20 | 2,330 | 34.8% | 64.3% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct -210210 | 837 | 1,462 | 25 | 2,324 | 36.0% | 62.9% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -100100 | 718 | 1,538 | 22 | 2,278 | 31.5% | 67.5% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct -200200 | 502 | 1,683 | 15 | 2,200 | 22.8% | 76.5% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -150150 | 736 | 1,380 | 29 | 2,145 | 34.3% | 64.3% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -500500 | 375 | 1,598 | 22 | 1,995 | 18.8% | 80.1% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -410410 | 619 | 1,176 | 10 | 1,805 | 34.3% | 65.2% | R+30.9 |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1884–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1884 | +58.8% |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +73.2% |
| 1896 | +69.8% |
| 1900 | +81.8% |
| 1904 | +79.6% |
| 1908 | +59.9% |
| 1912 | +66.3% |
| 1916 | +72.9% |
| 1920 | +59.9% |
| 1924 | +60.1% |
| 1928 | +2.9% |
| 1932 | +61.9% |
| 1936 | +56.2% |
| 1940 | +50.3% |
| 1944 | +48.7% |
| 1948 | +23.0% |
| 1952 | −7.3% |
| 1956 | +5.1% |
| 1960 | +4.0% |
| 1964 | −0.4% |
| 1968 | −8.9% |
| 1972 | −49.8% |
| 1976 | +14.0% |
| 1980 | −14.8% |
| 1984 | −27.1% |
| 1988 | −15.6% |
| 1992 | +2.6% |
| 1996 | +11.2% |
| 2000 | +3.1% |
| 2004 | −6.8% |
| 2008 | −3.6% |
| 2012 | −8.5% |
| 2016 | −29.0% |
| 2020 | −30.2% |
| 2024 | −37.1% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 1 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936Special · Class I | D | 43.2%Charles O. Andrews974 | 8.8%Howard C. Babcock198 | 2,255 |
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+25.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+37.1
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 12 points more Democratic.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 130,640 | 42,042 | 53,449 | 34,407 | 742 |
| 2018 | 134,923 | 42,337 | 56,197 | 35,014 | 1,375 |
| 2019 | 138,664 | 42,420 | 58,122 | 36,210 | 1,912 |
| 2020 | 147,746 | 43,456 | 64,233 | 37,338 | 2,719 |
| 2021 | 146,218 | 41,028 | 63,899 | 38,334 | 2,957 |
| 2023 | 136,530 | 33,945 | 65,065 | 33,650 | 3,870 |
| 2024 | 146,253 | 34,545 | 71,460 | 34,972 | 5,276 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+5,206 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +60,543 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,474 in average income, against $61,974 for residents who stayed — 1% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.6 on average — 23 points more Democratic-leaning than Hernando County, FL itself (R+37.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pasco County, FL2,001R+25.2
- Hillsborough County, FL1,318R+3.1
- Pinellas County, FL576R+5.2
- Citrus County, FL236R+45.9
- Miami-Dade County, FL130R+11.4
- Polk County, FL111R+20.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pasco County, FL1,249
- Hillsborough County, FL590
- Citrus County, FL426
- Pinellas County, FL258
- Sumter County, FL119
- Marion County, FL114
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +721 |
| 2012 | +820 |
| 2013 | +1,880 |
| 2014 | +2,317 |
| 2015 | +3,322 |
| 2016 | +5,238 |
| 2017 | +5,094 |
| 2018 | +4,812 |
| 2019 | +4,530 |
| 2021 | +7,225 |
| 2022 | +7,391 |
| 2023 | +6,816 |
| 2024 | +5,171 |
| 2025 | +5,206 |
Hernando County's population has grown steadily through retiree in-migration from Tampa's northern sprawl, and that demographic shift has coincided with a 37-point Republican presidential margin in 2024—among the largest in the I-75 corridor.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 81.8 points in 1900 and a Republican high of 49.8 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 37.1 points.
A population of 207,018, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,058 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Flagler County and Mercer County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Flagler County
Florida
81.6twin score
2000–2012 trajectorypopulation scale≠ median age
Mercer County
Pennsylvania
81.1twin score
12-yr trend2000–2004 trajectoryItalian ancestry≠ % Latino
Pasco County
Florida
80.0twin score
2000–2008 trajectorypopulation scale% Evangelical
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Hernando County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12053/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Hernando County, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hernando County, Florida voted Republican by 37.1 points (R+37.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 110,691 votes cast, 34,431 went Democratic and 75,446 went Republican.
When did Hernando County, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Hernando County, Florida voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Hernando County, Florida?
Hernando County, Florida has a population of 207,018 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hernando County, Florida?
Median household income in Hernando County, Florida is $66,058 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Hernando County, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hernando County, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.