Florida 15th Congressional District (FL) — Elections 1876–2024

Florida 15th Congressional District, Florida: Bellwether district. In 2024, voted R+8%. Democratic peak: D+94 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+8MIT Election Lab
Political archetype: BellwetherAkashic typology
Population: 737,3722024 5-year
Median household income: $77,1942024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 54.3%2024 5-year
Black: 14.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 28.4%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+94 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+42 in 1972MIT Election Lab

LEE, LaurelCongress 119 · Republican

−1 liberal

+1 conservative

Predecessors: FRANKLIN, C. Scott (2021–2023), SPANO, Ross (2019–2021), ROSS, Dennis (2017–2019), ROSS, Dennis (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).

2024 results by constituent county

3 counties · 0 D · 3 R

R+60

D+60

One cell per constituent county. Ordered by 2024 D-vs-R margin (bluest first). Hover for county-level numbers.

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−8.3%	151,538	179,474	335,017
2020	D	+1.0%	172,916	169,569	346,452
2016	D	+0.9%	139,939	137,292	288,115
2012	D	+3.8%	133,380	123,630	259,767
2008	D	+4.5%	129,114	117,839	249,036
2004	R	−7.9%	101,970	119,606	223,548
2000	R	−2.8%	81,658	86,544	173,030
1996	D	+4.2%	71,083	64,700	150,626
1992	R	−3.6%	56,693	62,212	151,705
1988	R	−19.5%	49,291	73,361	123,391
1984	R	−29.0%	42,475	77,243	119,741
1980	R	−10.8%	42,320	53,164	100,598
1976	D	+8.7%	44,846	37,578	83,405
1972	R	−41.9%	20,156	49,370	69,655
1968	R	−4.4%	19,325	22,055	62,154
1964	D	+14.2%	29,991	22,541	52,533
1960	D	+9.0%	25,809	21,561	47,370
1956	R	−5.2%	16,358	18,143	34,502
1952	R	−4.7%	14,284	15,708	29,992
1948	D	+13.3%	8,227	5,875	17,748
1944	D	+49.1%	12,917	4,404	17,321
1940	D	+57.8%	13,144	3,515	16,659
1936	D	+55.3%	8,608	2,479	11,087
1932	D	+58.9%	8,210	2,126	10,336
1928	R	−9.0%	4,264	5,129	9,567
1924	D	+37.4%	2,006	776	3,285
1920	D	+26.8%	3,070	1,640	5,340
1916	D	+58.4%	2,036	339	2,908
1912	D	+63.4%	1,173	78	1,728
1908	D	+62.6%	1,171	170	1,600
1904	D	+48.8%	880	219	1,354
1900	D	+61.0%	999	145	1,401
1896	D	+54.9%	954	249	1,284
1892	D	+93.8%	1,161	0	1,238
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	D	+58.2%	514	136	650
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year	Won	D %	R %	Total
2024	R	42.8%	55.6%	10,757,428
2022	R	41.3%	57.7%	7,758,014
2018	R	49.9%	50.1%	8,190,005
2016	R	44.3%	52.0%	9,301,820
2012	D	55.2%	42.2%	8,189,946
2010	R	20.2%	48.9%	5,411,106
2006	D	60.3%	38.1%	4,793,534
2004	R	48.3%	49.4%	7,429,894
2000	D	51.0%	46.2%	5,856,731
1998	D	62.5%	37.5%	3,900,162
1994	R	29.5%	70.5%	4,106,816
1992	D	65.4%	34.6%	4,962,290
1988	R	49.6%	50.4%	4,068,209
1986	D	54.7%	45.3%	3,429,996
1982	D	61.7%	38.3%	2,653,419
1980	R	48.3%	51.7%	3,528,028
1976	D	63.0%	37.0%	2,857,534

Demographics

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

9.0%

Irish

7.9%

English

7.7%

American

7.3%

Italian

5.8%

Polish

2.2%

French

1.6%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 38.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.7%

85+

1.1%

2.2%

75–84

2.8%

4.4%

65–74

5.1%

6.0%

55–64

6.3%

6.4%

45–54

6.4%

6.9%

35–44

7.1%

25–34

7.2%

4.4%

18–24

4.4%

8.1%

5–17

7.7%

2.8%

2.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Median household income

2024 inflation-adjusted dollars

$77,194

Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.

Congressional District 15$77,194

Florida$74,568

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

12.5%

Children face moderate poverty.

Children under 1815.4%

Working age (18–64)11.6%

Seniors (65+)13.6%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

71.4%

speak English only

Spanish21.2%

Other Indo-European4.0%

Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%

Other languages1.2%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

23.5%

Other Christian

13.3%

Baptist

8.3%

Methodist

3.0%

Pentecostal & Holiness

2.6%

Non-Christian

1.8%

Mainline Protestant

1.4%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 46.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Anchored in the suburban Tampa Bay–to–Orlando stretch, FL-15 has trended consistently toward Republican margins over the past three cycles, with 2024 showing a 15.6-point gap that reflects broader demographic shifts among working-class and Hispanic voters in the region.

The Democratic margin in Florida 15th Congressional District has rarely exceeded ninety-four points in modern history; the Republican margin has rarely exceeded forty-two points. 2024 delivered the district to the Republican candidate by eight points.

Its demographics resemble the country more than they resemble most districts. A 54% non-Hispanic-white share, a 13% poverty rate, and a median household income of $77,194 — all within the broad national range.

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Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Congressional District 15, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, Florida vote in 2024?

In 2024, Congressional District 15, Florida voted Republican by 8.3 points (R+8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 335,017 votes cast, 151,538 went Democratic and 179,474 went Republican.

What is Congressional District 15, Florida's political archetype?

Akashic classifies Congressional District 15, Florida as a "Bellwether" district based on its long-arc presidential voting pattern. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 23 times, Republican 12 times, and other 0 times.

When did Congressional District 15, Florida last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 15, Florida voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Congressional District 15, Florida?

Congressional District 15, Florida has a population of 737,372 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida?

Median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida is $77,194 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.

What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Florida?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The district's archetype — "Bellwether" — captures the overall trajectory of that voting record.

Florida 15th Congressional District delivered R+8 in 2024.

Key facts

U.S. Senate

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions