Florida 15th Congressional District
Akashic| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | +4.6% |
| 2012 | +2.6% |
| 2016 | −9.7% |
| 2020 | −10.6% |
| 2024 | −19.8% |
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
| Year | District | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | R | 43.8%152,361 | 56.2%195,334 | 347,695 |
| 2022 | 15 | R | 41.5%102,835 | 58.5%145,219 | 248,054 |
| 2020 | 15 | R | 44.6%174,297 | 55.4%216,374 | 390,671 |
| 2018 | 15 | R | 47.0%134,132 | 53.0%151,380 | 285,532 |
| 2016 | 15 | R | 42.5%135,475 | 57.5%182,999 | 318,474 |
| 2014 | 15 | R | 39.7%84,832 | 60.3%128,750 | 213,582 |
| 2012 | 15 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%1 | 1 |
| 2010 | 15 | R | 35.3%85,595 | 64.7%157,079 | 242,674 |
| 2008 | 15 | R | 42.0%151,951 | 53.1%192,151 | 361,871 |
| 2006 | 15 | R | 43.7%97,834 | 56.3%125,965 | 223,799 |
| 2004 | 15 | R | 34.6%111,538 | 65.4%210,388 | 321,926 |
| 2002 | 15 | R | 36.8%85,433 | 63.1%146,414 | 231,857 |
| 2000 | 15 | R | 39.2%117,511 | 58.8%176,189 | 299,445 |
| 1998 | 15 | R | 36.9%75,654 | 63.1%129,278 | 204,932 |
| 1996 | 15 | R | 42.9%115,981 | 51.4%139,014 | 270,350 |
| 1994 | 15 | R | 46.1%100,526 | 53.7%117,044 | 217,902 |
| 1992 | 15 | D | 50.7%132,412 | 49.3%128,873 | 261,285 |
| 1990 | 15 | R | 0.0%0 | 97.8%104,295 | 106,669 |
| 1988 | 15 | R | 33.9%67,746 | 66.1%132,090 | 199,836 |
| 1986 | 15 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%1 | 1 |
| 1984 | 15 | R | 34.3%66,833 | 65.7%128,097 | 194,930 |
| 1982 | 15 | R | 42.9%67,083 | 57.1%89,158 | 156,241 |
| 1980 | 15 | D | 65.4%132,952 | 34.6%70,433 | 203,385 |
| 1978 | 15 | D | 74.2%108,837 | 25.8%37,897 | 146,734 |
| 1976 | 15 | D | 70.4%121,292 | 29.6%50,941 | 172,233 |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 42.8%4,603,077 | 55.6%5,977,706 | 10,757,428 |
| 2022 | R | 41.3%3,201,522 | 57.7%4,474,847 | 7,758,014 |
| 2018 | R | 49.9%4,089,472 | 50.1%4,099,505 | 8,188,977 |
| 2016 | R | 44.3%4,122,088 | 52.0%4,835,191 | 9,301,716 |
| 2012 | D | 55.2%4,523,451 | 42.2%3,458,267 | 8,189,905 |
| 2010 | R | 20.2%1,092,936 | 48.9%2,645,743 | 5,411,016 |
| 2006 | D | 60.3%2,890,548 | 38.1%1,826,127 | 4,793,440 |
| 2004 | R | 48.3%3,590,201 | 49.4%3,672,864 | 7,429,707 |
| 2000 | D | 51.0%2,989,487 | 46.2%2,705,348 | 5,856,643 |
| 1998 | D | 62.5%2,436,407 | 37.5%1,463,755 | 3,900,162 |
| 1994 | R | 29.5%1,210,577 | 70.5%2,895,200 | 4,105,777 |
| 1992 | D | 65.4%3,245,565 | 34.6%1,716,505 | 4,962,070 |
| 1988 | R | 49.6%2,016,553 | 50.4%2,051,071 | 4,067,624 |
| 1986 | D | 54.7%1,877,543 | 45.3%1,552,376 | 3,429,919 |
| 1982 | D | 61.7%1,637,667 | 38.3%1,015,330 | 2,652,997 |
| 1980 | R | 48.3%1,705,409 | 51.7%1,822,460 | 3,527,869 |
| 1976 | D | 63.0%1,799,518 | 37.0%1,057,886 | 2,857,534 |
Florida's 15th congressional district, as drawn for the 2026 elections, takes in Hernando and Citrus counties and parts of Hillsborough and Pasco. About 769,300 people live within its 2026 boundaries, with a median age of 38.5. Measured on those boundaries, the district voted Democratic for president early in the decade and Republican in 2024. The margin was D+2.6 in 2012, R+9.7 in 2016, R+10.6 in 2020, and R+19.8 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 4.6 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 19.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.8 points.
A population of 769,268, a 65% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,624 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 16 and Congressional District 5.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Florida 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.