Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
presidential margin
2008D+5.02012D+3.12016R+3.12020R+2.62024R+10.4
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+10.4
2024
median income$75,011U.S. $80,734 · FL $74,568
median age42.8U.S. 39.1 · FL 43.1
poverty rate12.0%U.S. 12.5% · FL 12.6%
bachelor’s+ (25+)35.0%U.S. 35.6% · FL 34.2%
non-english23.1%U.S. 22.3% · FL 30.7%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German11.0%
Irish9.7%
English9.3%
Puerto Rican6.2%
Cuban4.6%
Mexican3.7%
African American†8.8%
Jamaican0.8%
Haitian0.6%
Asian Indian1.4%
Vietnamese0.7%
Filipino0.5%
religion
other traditions
Mainline3.7%
Black Protestant1.6%
Other Christian1.4%
Orthodox0.7%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida

Akashic
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLTrumpR+10.4
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, FLA map of the constituent counties of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, FL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Pinellas County, FL · R+5.2Hernando County, FL · R+37.1Hillsborough County, FL · R+3.1Pasco County, FL · R+25.2
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican54.7%884,714
Kamala HarrisDemocratic44.2%715,788
Jill SteinGreen1.1%17,727
D+60
R+60
4 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (4 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, FL — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Hernando County, FLRepublicanR+37.1
Hillsborough County, FLRepublicanR+3.1
Pasco County, FLRepublicanR+25.2
Pinellas County, FLRepublicanR+5.2
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
44.2%Harris715,788
54.7%Trump884,714
1.1%Stein17,727
−10.4%
1,618,229
R
48.2%Biden810,409
50.7%Trump853,640
1.1%Jorgensen18,621
−2.6%
1,682,670
R
46.6%Clinton663,534
49.6%Trump707,142
3.8%Johnson54,322
−3.1%
1,424,998
D
51.0%Obama661,664
47.9%Romney620,809
1.1%Johnson14,571
+3.1%
1,297,044
D
52.0%Obama665,565
47.0%McCain601,546
1.0%Nader12,250
+5.0%
1,279,361
R
47.2%Kerry561,528
51.9%Bush617,127
1.0%Nader11,387
−4.7%
1,190,042
D
48.9%Gore472,457
48.1%Bush464,908
3.1%Nader29,520
+0.8%
966,885
D
48.4%Clinton424,013
41.0%Dole359,212
10.6%Perot92,855
+7.4%
876,080
R
37.9%Clinton348,114
38.7%Bush355,401
23.4%Perot214,886
−0.8%
918,401
R
41.3%Dukakis317,256
58.1%Bush446,215
0.6%Paul4,281
−16.8%
767,752
R
35.5%Mondale267,970
64.5%Reagan486,435
0.0%Other127
−29.0%
754,532
R
40.8%Carter269,611
53.6%Reagan354,123
5.6%Anderson37,057
−12.8%
660,791
D
50.8%Carter277,895
48.0%Ford262,606
1.2%McCarthy6,692
+2.8%
547,193
R
29.6%McGovern135,942
70.2%Nixon322,042
0.2%Schmitz727
−40.6%
458,711
R
31.9%Humphrey121,873
44.6%Nixon170,472
23.6%Wallace90,080
−12.7%
382,425
D
56.1%Johnson180,125
43.9%Goldwater140,973
0.0%
+12.2%
321,098
R
44.5%Kennedy128,086
55.5%Nixon159,663
0.0%
−11.0%
287,749
R
37.0%Stevenson72,339
63.0%Eisenhower122,999
0.0%
−25.9%
195,338
R
38.1%Stevenson60,270
61.9%Eisenhower97,848
0.0%
−23.8%
158,118
R
40.9%Truman37,778
44.1%Dewey40,709
15.0%Thurmond13,876
−3.2%
92,363
D
67.4%Roosevelt54,245
32.6%Dewey26,290
0.0%
+34.7%
80,535
D
70.2%Roosevelt53,921
29.8%Willkie22,875
0.0%
+40.4%
76,796
D
70.3%Roosevelt35,618
29.7%Landon15,016
0.0%
+40.7%
50,634
D
71.7%Roosevelt32,414
28.3%Hoover12,799
0.0%
+43.4%
45,213
R
38.1%Smith15,441
60.4%Hoover24,500
1.5%Thomas613
−22.3%
40,554
D
54.3%Davis8,183
33.1%Coolidge4,988
12.7%La Follette1,909
+21.2%
15,080
D
55.6%Cox11,612
33.8%Harding7,063
10.5%Debs2,195
+21.8%
20,870
D
68.1%Wilson7,355
14.1%Hughes1,520
17.8%Benson1,919
+54.1%
10,794
D
66.2%Wilson4,251
5.0%Taft324
28.8%Roosevelt1,850
+61.1%
6,425
D
73.8%Bryan3,399
11.0%Taft505
15.2%Debs699
+62.9%
4,603
D
66.3%Parker2,601
15.9%Roosevelt624
17.8%Debs697
+50.4%
3,922
D
73.0%Bryan3,001
9.7%McKinley399
17.3%Woolley712
+63.3%
4,112
D
75.6%Bryan2,828
18.5%McKinley691
5.9%Palmer220
+57.2%
3,739
D
91.9%Cleveland3,416
0.0%Harrison0
8.1%Weaver303
+91.9%
3,719
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −10.4% in 2024.flipped R · 2016−10.4%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892+91.9%
1896+57.2%
1900+63.3%
1904+50.4%
1908+62.9%
1912+61.1%
1916+54.1%
1920+21.8%
1924+21.2%
1928−22.3%
1932+43.4%
1936+40.7%
1940+40.4%
1944+34.7%
1948−3.2%
1952−23.8%
1956−25.9%
1960−11.0%
1964+12.2%
1968−12.7%
1972−40.6%
1976+2.8%
1980−12.8%
1984−29.0%
1988−16.8%
1992−0.8%
1996+7.4%
2000+0.8%
2004−4.7%
2008+5.0%
2012+3.1%
2016−3.1%
2020−2.6%
2024−10.4%
DemocraticRepublican
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Voter registration in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FLRegistered voters by party of registration, 2017–2024. Latest total 2,093,921 in 2024.552.7K1.1M1.7M2.2M2.1M20172024
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
Voter registration in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
YearTotal registeredDemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther
20171,938,469698,468676,969551,63911,393
20182,031,150731,817704,159575,76119,413
20192,041,906729,631707,714579,83924,722
20202,210,670789,387774,302609,48337,498
20212,141,015747,191748,747604,24940,828
20231,945,810629,723734,035533,27848,774
20242,093,921656,355801,426568,01468,126
Source: Florida Division of Elections

The Tampa Bay metro blends retiree-heavy coastal suburbs with a diverse urban core and a large Puerto Rican community in Hillsborough County, producing some of Florida's most closely contested countywide results.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 91.9 points in 1892 and a Republican high of 40.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 7.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 10.4 points.

A population of 3,304,691, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,011 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ.

Political twins — metros

The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
90.7twin score
population scalePuerto Rican ancestry2008–2012 trajectory
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
87.6twin score
Puerto Rican ancestryelasticity% Catholic≠ 2000 margin
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
84.8twin score
2000–2020 trajectoryPuerto Rican ancestry≠ population scale

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/45300/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

counties4
Hernando CountyHillsborough CountyPasco CountyPinellas County

Frequently asked questions

How did Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida voted Republican by 10.4 points (R+10.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,618,229 votes cast, 715,788 went Democratic and 884,714 went Republican.
When did Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida has a population of 3,304,691 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Median household income in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida is $75,011 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL, Florida from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 19 went Democratic and 15 went Republican.