HarrisDemocratic48.5%3,423,042TrumpRepublican50.2%3,543,308SteinGreen0.5%34,538
R+1.7- Lead
- 120,266
- Total
- 7,058,732
- vs nation
- R+0.2
- Turnout
- 71.0%
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 13,018,6392024 5-year
- Population density
- 291 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 44,742 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $77,9712024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 73.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 10.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 8.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+30.2 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.3 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- New York, NY · twin score 60.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.0%7,074,875 participants ÷ 9,961,813 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- 0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.1%–56.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 6,223,150 | 9,725,847 | 64.0% | B/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 5,057,630 | 9,748,290 | 51.9% | B/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 6,973,951 | 9,778,957 | 71.3% | B/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 5,410,022 | 9,949,674 | 54.4% | B/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 7,074,875 | 9,961,813 | 71.0% | B/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 276/110.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 279/137.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 282/1.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 285/182.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-state-v1:observed:aggregated; allocation share 0.0%; series 288/227.
presidential history
Party record book
Pennsylvania · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
64.9%
3,130,954 votes · D+30.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 56.9%
Republican
Theodore Roosevelt1904
68.0%
840,949 votes · R+40.7
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 65.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
3,458,229votes
49.9% of the vote · D+1.2
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 3,423,042 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,543,308votes
50.2% of the vote · R+1.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,377,674 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Walter Mondale1984
+10.9pts D vs U.S.
Place R+7.4 · U.S. R+18.2
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +7.6 pts
Republican
Herbert Hoover1932
+23.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+5.5 · U.S. D+17.8
Runner-up · Calvin Coolidge, 1924 · +21.1 pts
2026 election
On the ballot
Governor
Josh ShapironomineeStacy Garritynominee
Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is seeking a second term and won the Democratic primary unopposed. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary unopposed and would be Pennsylvania's first female governor. Minor-party general-election names (e.g., Libertarian) were not confirmed against an authoritative source and are omitted.
U.S. House elections · 514 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
| Year | Seats won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D 7 · R 10 | 49.0% | 51.0% | 6,819,484 | |
| D 9 · R 8 | 47.3% | 52.5% | 5,152,001 | |
| D 9 · R 9 | 49.4% | 50.6% | 6,779,307 | |
| D 9 · R 9 | 55.0% | 44.8% | 4,929,875 |
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+2.3
Presidential vote · 2024R+1.7
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 4.0 points more Republican than the rolls.
8,970,022 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
−2,936 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −305,800 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −7,522 |
| 2012 | −18,975 |
| 2013 | −30,128 |
| 2014 | −36,614 |
| 2015 | −43,668 |
| 2016 | −50,422 |
| 2017 | −27,406 |
| 2018 | −20,731 |
| 2019 | −19,588 |
| 2021 | +28,598 |
| 2022 | −40,586 |
| 2023 | −24,570 |
| 2024 | −11,252 |
| 2025 | −2,936 |
Pennsylvania decided 2024 — Trump by 1.7 points on seven million ballots, a 2.9-point move from Biden’s win four years before.
- The tipping-point state
- D+1.2 (2020) → R+1.7 (2024) — a 2.9-pt move to Trump, the largest battleground’s 19 electoral votes · MIT Election Lab
- Bluest and reddest
- Philadelphia D+58.8; Fulton County R+72.6 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- Philadelphia and the collar
- Delaware D+23.7, Montgomery D+22.8, Chester D+14.5, Bucks R+0.1; Allegheny (Pittsburgh) D+20.3 · MIT Election Lab 2024
- An industrial county moves right
- Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre): D+4.8 (2012) → R+19.2 (2024), a 24-pt shift · MIT Election Lab
- A county on the lake flips back
- Erie: D+16.0 (2012) → R+1.0 (2024), Obama → Trump → Biden → Trump · MIT Election Lab
- Governor race in 2026
- Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) seeks a 2nd term vs State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R), both unopposed in the primary · Akashic 2026 forecast
Political twins — states
The states whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
New York
New York
60.0twin score
population scaleItalian ancestry% Evangelical≠ 12-yr trend
New Jersey
New Jersey
56.9twin score
population scale2004 marginItalian ancestry≠ median income
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
55.7twin score
% Catholic2004 margin% Latino≠ Italian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/state/PA/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 1.7 points (R+1.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,058,732 votes cast, 3,423,042 went Democratic and 3,543,308 went Republican.
When did Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania has a population of 13,018,639 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Pennsylvania is $77,971 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Pennsylvania from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.