HarrisDemocratic32.2%11,394TrumpRepublican67.0%23,708OliverLibertarian0.5%171
R+34.8- Lead
- 12,314
- Total
- 35,395
- vs nation
- R+33.3
- Turnout
- 67.5%
Akashiccounty
Carbon County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.5% of 52,417 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic33.3%11,212TrumpRepublican65.4%21,984JorgensenLibertarian1.3%433
R+32.0- Lead
- 10,772
- Total
- 33,629
- vs nation
- R+36.5
- Turnout
- 66.2%
ClintonDemocratic30.8%8,936TrumpRepublican64.6%18,743JohnsonLibertarian2.4%691
R+33.8- Lead
- 9,807
- Total
- 28,993
- vs nation
- R+35.9
- Turnout
- 57.3%
ObamaDemocratic45.1%11,580RomneyRepublican52.6%13,504JohnsonLibertarian1.4%356
R+7.5- Lead
- 1,924
- Total
- 25,694
- vs nation
- R+11.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic50.0%13,464McCainRepublican48.1%12,957OtherAll other candidates1.9%502
D+1.9- Lead
- 507
- Total
- 26,923
- vs nation
- R+5.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic48.8%12,223BushRepublican50.0%12,519OtherAll other candidates1.2%301
R+1.2- Lead
- 296
- Total
- 25,043
- vs nation
- D+1.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.1%10,668BushRepublican45.7%9,717NaderGreen2.7%574
D+4.5- Lead
- 951
- Total
- 21,277
- vs nation
- D+4.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.7%9,457DoleRepublican36.3%7,193PerotReform15.1%2,992
D+11.4- Lead
- 2,264
- Total
- 19,829
- vs nation
- D+2.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+34.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 65,3822024 5-year
- Median household income
- $67,5542024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+35.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+34.8 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Fayette County, PA · twin score 88.9
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.5%35,395 participants ÷ 52,417 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 52.1%–53.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 29,273 | 51,117 | 57.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 22,798 | 50,906 | 44.8% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 33,867 | 51,159 | 66.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 26,390 | 51,996 | 50.8% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 35,395 | 52,417 | 67.5% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
104 precincts · 35,395 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0270420250270 | 424 | 1,011 | 7 | 1,442 | 29.4% | 70.1% | R+40.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0363420250363 | 435 | 951 | 14 | 1,400 | 31.1% | 67.9% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct 0340420250340 | 513 | 847 | 13 | 1,373 | 37.4% | 61.7% | R+24.3 |
| Precinct 0376420250376 | 490 | 847 | 9 | 1,346 | 36.4% | 62.9% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct 0379420250379 | 456 | 756 | 5 | 1,217 | 37.5% | 62.1% | R+24.7 |
| Precinct 0367420250367 | 413 | 721 | 6 | 1,140 | 36.2% | 63.2% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct 0090420250090 | 289 | 790 | 7 | 1,086 | 26.6% | 72.7% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct 0258420250258 | 272 | 785 | 13 | 1,070 | 25.4% | 73.4% | R+47.9 |
| Precinct 0420420250420 | 306 | 671 | 12 | 989 | 30.9% | 67.8% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct 0428420250428 | 242 | 735 | 11 | 988 | 24.5% | 74.4% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct 0330420250330 | 305 | 636 | 12 | 953 | 32.0% | 66.7% | R+34.7 |
| Precinct 0100420250100 | 215 | 653 | 8 | 876 | 24.5% | 74.5% | R+50.0 |
| Precinct 0230420250230 | 334 | 533 | 3 | 870 | 38.4% | 61.3% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct 0250420250250 | 310 | 552 | 4 | 866 | 35.8% | 63.7% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct 0371420250371 | 307 | 548 | 9 | 864 | 35.5% | 63.4% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct 0062420250062 | 227 | 632 | 3 | 862 | 26.3% | 73.3% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct 0058420250058 | 208 | 643 | 9 | 860 | 24.2% | 74.8% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct 0310420250310 | 307 | 531 | 6 | 844 | 36.4% | 62.9% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct 0432420250432 | 238 | 590 | 5 | 833 | 28.6% | 70.8% | R+42.3 |
| Precinct 0440420250440 | 234 | 569 | 10 | 813 | 28.8% | 70.0% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct 0130420250130 | 287 | 496 | 7 | 790 | 36.3% | 62.8% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct 0240420250240 | 303 | 457 | 8 | 768 | 39.5% | 59.5% | R+20.1 |
| Precinct 0170420250170 | 242 | 518 | 5 | 765 | 31.6% | 67.7% | R+36.1 |
| Precinct 0262420250262 | 218 | 540 | 6 | 764 | 28.5% | 70.7% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct 0300420250300 | 269 | 470 | 6 | 745 | 36.1% | 63.1% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct 0180420250180 | 235 | 434 | 8 | 677 | 34.7% | 64.1% | R+29.4 |
| Precinct 0320420250320 | 115 | 537 | 3 | 655 | 17.6% | 82.0% | R+64.4 |
| Precinct 0150420250150 | 278 | 363 | 10 | 651 | 42.7% | 55.8% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct 0080420250080 | 162 | 463 | 6 | 631 | 25.7% | 73.4% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct 0280420250280 | 142 | 407 | 4 | 553 | 25.7% | 73.6% | R+47.9 |
| Precinct 0110420250110 | 235 | 308 | 7 | 550 | 42.7% | 56.0% | R+13.3 |
| Precinct 0400420250400 | 184 | 315 | 5 | 504 | 36.5% | 62.5% | R+26.0 |
| Precinct 0015420250015 | 155 | 329 | 5 | 489 | 31.7% | 67.3% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct 0050420250050 | 139 | 325 | 3 | 467 | 29.8% | 69.6% | R+39.8 |
| Precinct 0350420250350 | 142 | 300 | 8 | 450 | 31.6% | 66.7% | R+35.1 |
| Precinct 0290420250290 | 127 | 305 | 3 | 435 | 29.2% | 70.1% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct 0040420250040 | 109 | 322 | 1 | 432 | 25.2% | 74.5% | R+49.3 |
| Precinct 0450420250450 | 102 | 326 | 3 | 431 | 23.7% | 75.6% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct 0190420250190 | 160 | 258 | 1 | 419 | 38.2% | 61.6% | R+23.4 |
| Precinct 0390420250390 | 175 | 235 | 5 | 415 | 42.2% | 56.6% | R+14.5 |
| Precinct 0120420250120 | 168 | 242 | 3 | 413 | 40.7% | 58.6% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct 0200420250200 | 152 | 256 | 2 | 410 | 37.1% | 62.4% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct 0380420250380 | 157 | 246 | 2 | 405 | 38.8% | 60.7% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct 0160420250160 | 126 | 203 | 1 | 330 | 38.2% | 61.5% | R+23.3 |
| Precinct 0410420250410 | 98 | 207 | 1 | 306 | 32.0% | 67.6% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct 0220420250220 | 54 | 229 | 3 | 286 | 18.9% | 80.1% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct 0140420250140 | 139 | 145 | 1 | 285 | 48.8% | 50.9% | R+2.1 |
| Precinct 0360420250360 | 70 | 163 | 3 | 236 | 29.7% | 69.1% | R+39.4 |
| Precinct 0460420250460 | 50 | 117 | 5 | 172 | 29.1% | 68.0% | R+39.0 |
| Precinct 0210420250210 | 37 | 112 | 0 | 149 | 24.8% | 75.2% | R+50.3 |
| Precinct 0070420250070 | 39 | 79 | 2 | 120 | 32.5% | 65.8% | R+33.3 |
| BANKS TWP DIST AUDEN-TRESC42_4202510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BANKS TWP DIST COXEVILLE42_4202520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BANKS TWP DIST LEVISTON42_4202530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BEAVER MEADOWS Voting District42_4202540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BOWMANSTOWN Voting District42_4202550 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST PENN TWP DIST NORTH42_4202565 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST PENN TWP DIST SOUTH42_4202566 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST SIDE Voting District42_4202570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FRANKLIN TWP DIST FRANKLIN IND.42_4202580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FRANKLIN TWP DIST HARRITY42_4202590 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FRANKLIN TWP DIST LONG RUN42_42025100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JIM THORPE DIST 0142_42025110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JIM THORPE DIST 0242_42025120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JIM THORPE DIST 0342_42025130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JIM THORPE DIST 0442_42025140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JIM THORPE DIST 0542_42025150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KIDDER TWP DIST NORTH42_42025160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KIDDER TWP DIST SOUTH42_42025170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LANSFORD DIST FIRST42_42025180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LANSFORD DIST MIDDLE42_42025190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LANSFORD DIST WEST42_42025200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LAUSANNE TWP Voting District42_42025210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHIGH TWP Voting District42_42025220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHIGHTON DIST 0142_42025230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHIGHTON DIST 0242_42025240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHIGHTON DIST 0342_42025250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LOWER TOWAMENSING TWP DIST NORTH42_42025260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LOWER TOWAMENSING TWP DIST SOUTH42_42025265 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP DIST MAHONING42_42025270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP DIST NEW MAHONING42_42025280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP DIST PACKER-JAMESTOWN42_42025290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NESQUEHONING DIST EAST42_42025300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NESQUEHONING DIST WEST42_42025310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PACKER TWP Voting District42_42025320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMERTON DIST EASTERN42_42025330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMERTON DIST MIDDLE42_42025340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMERTON DIST WESTERN42_42025350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARRYVILLE Voting District42_42025360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN FOREST TWP VTD EAST42_42025375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN FOREST TWP VTD MIDDLE42_42025376 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN FOREST TWP VTD NORTH EAST42_42025377 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN FOREST TWP VTD NORTH WEST42_42025379 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PENN FOREST TWP VTD SOUTH WEST42_42025374 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMMIT HILL DIST 0142_42025380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMMIT HILL DIST 0242_42025390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMMIT HILL WD 03 DIST 0142_42025400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMMIT HILL WD 03 DIST 0242_42025410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWAMENSING TWP DIST NORTH42_42025420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWAMENSING TWP DIST SOUTH 142_42025435 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TOWAMENSING TWP DIST SOUTH 242_42025436 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEATHERLY DIST EAST42_42025440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEATHERLY DIST WEST42_42025450 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEISSPORT Voting District42_42025460 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +5.2% |
| 1896 | −11.0% |
| 1900 | −0.8% |
| 1904 | −18.0% |
| 1908 | −6.5% |
| 1912 | +26.9% |
| 1916 | −2.0% |
| 1920 | −21.5% |
| 1924 | −27.6% |
| 1928 | −30.4% |
| 1932 | −0.2% |
| 1936 | +11.2% |
| 1940 | +9.2% |
| 1944 | +5.8% |
| 1948 | −1.6% |
| 1952 | −7.4% |
| 1956 | −14.9% |
| 1960 | −0.8% |
| 1964 | +35.5% |
| 1968 | +3.2% |
| 1972 | −19.6% |
| 1976 | +9.6% |
| 1980 | −10.5% |
| 1984 | −9.5% |
| 1988 | −5.8% |
| 1992 | +8.4% |
| 1996 | +11.4% |
| 2000 | +4.5% |
| 2004 | −1.2% |
| 2008 | +1.9% |
| 2012 | −7.5% |
| 2016 | −33.8% |
| 2020 | −32.0% |
| 2024 | −34.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+21.4
Presidential vote · 2024R+34.8
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 13 points more Democratic.
45,650 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+470 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,701 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,933 in average income, against $68,087 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+1.6 on average — 33 points more Democratic-leaning than Carbon County, PA itself (R+34.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lehigh County, PA297D+2.7
- Northampton County, PA218R+1.8
- Monroe County, PA158R+0.8
- Luzerne County, PA152R+19.2
- Schuylkill County, PA142R+42.1
- Philadelphia County, PA66D+58.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lehigh County, PA215
- Schuylkill County, PA183
- Northampton County, PA160
- Luzerne County, PA148
- Monroe County, PA132
- Montgomery County, PA39
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +106 |
| 2012 | −62 |
| 2013 | −65 |
| 2014 | −93 |
| 2015 | −232 |
| 2016 | −53 |
| 2017 | +522 |
| 2018 | +558 |
| 2019 | +219 |
| 2021 | +1,150 |
| 2022 | +365 |
| 2023 | +256 |
| 2024 | +560 |
| 2025 | +470 |
Carbon County's coal-mining heritage shaped decades of Democratic loyalty, but the area has swung hard in recent cycles — its R+34.8 margin in 2024 reflects one of the steepest realignments among Pennsylvania's working-class rural counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 34.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 34.8 points.
A population of 65,382, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,554 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fayette County and Schuylkill County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Fayette County
Pennsylvania
88.9twin score
12-yr trend2000–2008 trajectory≠ elasticity
Schuylkill County
Pennsylvania
88.7twin score
12-yr trend% EvangelicalItalian ancestry
Mercer County
Pennsylvania
86.6twin score
12-yr trend2000–2008 trajectory≠ Scottish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carbon County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42025/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Carbon County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carbon County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 34.8 points (R+34.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 35,395 votes cast, 11,394 went Democratic and 23,708 went Republican.
When did Carbon County, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carbon County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Carbon County, Pennsylvania?
Carbon County, Pennsylvania has a population of 65,382 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carbon County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Carbon County, Pennsylvania is $67,554 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Carbon County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carbon County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.