- Lead
- 19,743
- Total
- 37,119
- vs nation
- R+51.7
- Turnout
- 71.2%
Armstrong County, PA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.2% of 52,148 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 19,032
- Total
- 36,370
- vs nation
- R+56.8
- Turnout
- 69.2%
- Lead
- 16,306
- Total
- 31,864
- vs nation
- R+53.3
- Turnout
- 59.3%
- Lead
- 11,097
- Total
- 29,721
- vs nation
- R+41.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,404
- Total
- 30,081
- vs nation
- R+31.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,900
- Total
- 31,097
- vs nation
- R+19.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 4,381
- Total
- 27,423
- vs nation
- R+16.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 78
- Total
- 25,779
- vs nation
- R+8.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+53.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 64,6222024 5-year
- Median household income
- $65,0082024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 0.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33.0 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Venango County, PA · twin score 87.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.2%37,119 participants ÷ 52,148 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 55.8%–57.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 32,106 | 54,155 | 59.3% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 24,943 | 53,362 | 46.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 36,437 | 52,672 | 69.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 28,482 | 52,916 | 53.8% | C/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 37,119 | 52,148 | 71.2% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
136 precincts · 37,119 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0580420050580 | 193 | 1,092 | 5 | 1,290 | 15.0% | 84.7% | R+69.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0340420050340 | 237 | 952 | 11 | 1,200 | 19.8% | 79.3% | R+59.6 |
| Precinct 0720420050720 | 215 | 907 | 11 | 1,133 | 19.0% | 80.1% | R+61.1 |
| Precinct 0392420050392 | 365 | 684 | 16 | 1,065 | 34.3% | 64.2% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct 0440420050440 | 243 | 798 | 11 | 1,052 | 23.1% | 75.9% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct 0265420050265 | 303 | 730 | 11 | 1,044 | 29.0% | 69.9% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct 0660420050660 | 195 | 762 | 3 | 960 | 20.3% | 79.4% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct 0490420050490 | 213 | 695 | 5 | 913 | 23.3% | 76.1% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct 0242420050242 | 347 | 551 | 10 | 908 | 38.2% | 60.7% | R+22.5 |
| Precinct 0330420050330 | 230 | 652 | 9 | 891 | 25.8% | 73.2% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct 0150420050150 | 222 | 633 | 6 | 861 | 25.8% | 73.5% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct 0500420050500 | 149 | 693 | 4 | 846 | 17.6% | 81.9% | R+64.3 |
| Precinct 0650420050650 | 188 | 628 | 6 | 822 | 22.9% | 76.4% | R+53.5 |
| Precinct 0320420050320 | 205 | 602 | 8 | 815 | 25.2% | 73.9% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct 0170420050170 | 182 | 621 | 2 | 805 | 22.6% | 77.1% | R+54.5 |
| Precinct 0425420050425 | 133 | 658 | 6 | 797 | 16.7% | 82.6% | R+65.9 |
| Precinct 0590420050590 | 156 | 631 | 8 | 795 | 19.6% | 79.4% | R+59.7 |
| Precinct 0112420050112 | 142 | 641 | 5 | 788 | 18.0% | 81.3% | R+63.3 |
| Precinct 0460420050460 | 222 | 556 | 5 | 783 | 28.4% | 71.0% | R+42.7 |
| Precinct 0670420050670 | 151 | 616 | 10 | 777 | 19.4% | 79.3% | R+59.8 |
| Precinct 0130420050130 | 157 | 586 | 5 | 748 | 21.0% | 78.3% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct 0730420050730 | 189 | 549 | 4 | 742 | 25.5% | 74.0% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct 0532420050532 | 214 | 517 | 4 | 735 | 29.1% | 70.3% | R+41.2 |
| Precinct 0050420050050 | 176 | 538 | 3 | 717 | 24.5% | 75.0% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct 0202420050202 | 241 | 474 | 1 | 716 | 33.7% | 66.2% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct 0480420050480 | 227 | 470 | 7 | 704 | 32.2% | 66.8% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct 0192420050192 | 240 | 449 | 6 | 695 | 34.5% | 64.6% | R+30.1 |
| Precinct 0160420050160 | 122 | 562 | 3 | 687 | 17.8% | 81.8% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct 0015420050015 | 209 | 435 | 10 | 654 | 32.0% | 66.5% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct 0630420050630 | 108 | 518 | 1 | 627 | 17.2% | 82.6% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct 0550420050550 | 127 | 485 | 4 | 616 | 20.6% | 78.7% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct 0450420050450 | 155 | 452 | 0 | 607 | 25.5% | 74.5% | R+48.9 |
| Precinct 0710420050710 | 72 | 529 | 2 | 603 | 11.9% | 87.7% | R+75.8 |
| Precinct 0370420050370 | 156 | 440 | 4 | 600 | 26.0% | 73.3% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct 0695420050695 | 101 | 447 | 3 | 551 | 18.3% | 81.1% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct 0060420050060 | 67 | 482 | 1 | 550 | 12.2% | 87.6% | R+75.5 |
| Precinct 0605420050605 | 60 | 476 | 1 | 537 | 11.2% | 88.6% | R+77.5 |
| Precinct 0410420050410 | 65 | 435 | 3 | 503 | 12.9% | 86.5% | R+73.6 |
| Precinct 0300420050300 | 109 | 389 | 4 | 502 | 21.7% | 77.5% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct 0620420050620 | 116 | 347 | 3 | 466 | 24.9% | 74.5% | R+49.6 |
| Precinct 0075420050075 | 106 | 356 | 1 | 463 | 22.9% | 76.9% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct 0310420050310 | 121 | 311 | 10 | 442 | 27.4% | 70.4% | R+43.0 |
| Precinct 0360420050360 | 154 | 282 | 2 | 438 | 35.2% | 64.4% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct 0380420050380 | 90 | 326 | 0 | 416 | 21.6% | 78.4% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct 0090420050090 | 58 | 349 | 6 | 413 | 14.0% | 84.5% | R+70.5 |
| Precinct 0680420050680 | 57 | 352 | 2 | 411 | 13.9% | 85.6% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct 0740420050740 | 86 | 274 | 3 | 363 | 23.7% | 75.5% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct 0270420050270 | 121 | 234 | 4 | 359 | 33.7% | 65.2% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct 0350420050350 | 106 | 213 | 5 | 324 | 32.7% | 65.7% | R+33.0 |
| Precinct 0140420050140 | 45 | 252 | 3 | 300 | 15.0% | 84.0% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct 0470420050470 | 59 | 180 | 1 | 240 | 24.6% | 75.0% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct 0640420050640 | 35 | 194 | 0 | 229 | 15.3% | 84.7% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct 0230420050230 | 55 | 167 | 3 | 225 | 24.4% | 74.2% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct 0180420050180 | 40 | 160 | 2 | 202 | 19.8% | 79.2% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct 0570420050570 | 19 | 178 | 2 | 199 | 9.5% | 89.4% | R+79.9 |
| Precinct 0560420050560 | 31 | 160 | 1 | 192 | 16.1% | 83.3% | R+67.2 |
| Precinct 0100420050100 | 33 | 158 | 0 | 191 | 17.3% | 82.7% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct 0520420050520 | 29 | 150 | 2 | 181 | 16.0% | 82.9% | R+66.9 |
| Precinct 0030420050030 | 53 | 117 | 0 | 170 | 31.2% | 68.8% | R+37.6 |
| Precinct 0510420050510 | 36 | 120 | 2 | 158 | 22.8% | 75.9% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct 0040420050040 | 13 | 47 | 0 | 60 | 21.7% | 78.3% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct 0290420050290 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 38 | 10.5% | 89.5% | R+78.9 |
| APOLLO WD 0142_4200510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| APOLLO WD 0242_4200520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| APPLEWOLD Voting District42_4200530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ATWOOD Voting District42_4200540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BETHEL TWP Voting District42_4200550 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BOGGS TWP Voting District42_4200560 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRADYS BEND TWP VTD 0142_4200570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BRADYS BEND TWP VTD 0242_4200580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BURRELL TWP Voting District42_4200590 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CADOGAN TWP Voting District42_42005100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COWANSHANNOCK TWP VTD EASTERN42_42005110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COWANSHANNOCK TWP VTD SAGAMORE42_42005120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COWANSHANNOCK TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DAYTON Voting District42_42005140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST FRANKLIN TWP VTD EASTERN42_42005150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST FRANKLIN TWP VTD NORTHERN42_42005160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST FRANKLIN TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELDERTON Voting District42_42005180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FORD CITY VTD NORTHERN WD 0142_42005190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FORD CITY VTD NORTHERN WD 0242_42005200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FORD CITY VTD SOUTHERN WD 0142_42005210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FORD CITY VTD SOUTHERN WD 0242_42005220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FORD CLIFF Voting District42_42005230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FREEPORT DIST 0142_42005240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FREEPORT DIST 0242_42005250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GILPIN TWP VTD 01 ED FORKS CHURCH42_42005260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GILPIN TWP VTD 02 ED SCHENLEY42_42005270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GILPIN TWP VTD 03 ED GEORGETOWN42_42005280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HOVEY TWP Voting District42_42005290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KISKIMINETAS TWP VTD HORRELL42_42005300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KISKIMINETAS TWP VTD ORCH.HILLS-NORTH42_42005310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KISKIMINETAS TWP VTD ORCH.HILLS-SOUTH42_42005320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KISKIMINETAS TWP VTD SPRING CHURCH42_42005330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KITTANNING TWP Voting District42_42005340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KITTANNING WD 0142_42005350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KITTANNING WD 0242_42005360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KITTANNING WD 0342_42005370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KITTANNING WD 0442_42005380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEECHBURG VTD 0142_42005390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEECHBURG VTD 0242_42005400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MADISON TWP Voting District42_42005410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP VTD EASTERN42_42005420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005430 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MANOR TWP VTD NORTHERN42_42005440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MANOR TWP VTD SOUTHERN 142_42005450 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MANOR TWP VTD SOUTHERN 242_42005460 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MANORVILLE Voting District42_42005470 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH APOLLO Voting District42_42005480 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH BUFFALO TWP VTD EASTERN42_42005490 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH BUFFALO TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARKER CITY WD 0142_42005510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARKER CITY WD 0242_42005520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARKS TWP VTD KEPPLE HILL42_42005530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARKS TWP VTD NORTH VANDERGRIFT42_42005540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PARKS TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005550 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PERRY TWP Voting District42_42005560 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PINE TWP Voting District42_42005570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PLUMCREEK TWP Voting District42_42005580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RAYBURN TWP Voting District42_42005590 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| REDBANK TWP VTD 0242_42005610 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| REDBANK TWP VTD OAK RIDGE42_42005600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RURAL VALLEY Voting District42_42005620 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH BEND TWP Voting District42_42005630 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH BETHLEHEM Voting District42_42005640 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH BUFFALO TWP VTD EASTERN42_42005650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH BUFFALO TWP VTD WESTERN42_42005660 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUGARCREEK TWP Voting District42_42005670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VALLEY TWP Voting District42_42005680 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WASHINGTON TWP VTD NORTHERN42_42005690 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WASHINGTON TWP VTD SOUTHERN42_42005700 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WAYNE TWP Voting District42_42005710 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST FRANKLIN TWP Voting District42_42005720 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST KITTANNING Voting District42_42005730 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WORTHINGTON Voting District42_42005740 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −14.1% |
| 1896 | −24.2% |
| 1900 | −29.7% |
| 1904 | −41.3% |
| 1908 | −28.3% |
| 1912 | +11.2% |
| 1916 | −23.6% |
| 1920 | −44.1% |
| 1924 | −47.4% |
| 1928 | −56.6% |
| 1932 | −7.9% |
| 1936 | +5.8% |
| 1940 | −8.9% |
| 1944 | −14.4% |
| 1948 | −8.3% |
| 1952 | −12.3% |
| 1956 | −22.5% |
| 1960 | −14.6% |
| 1964 | +33.0% |
| 1968 | −0.7% |
| 1972 | −24.8% |
| 1976 | +6.2% |
| 1980 | −0.9% |
| 1984 | +2.9% |
| 1988 | +9.3% |
| 1992 | +13.7% |
| 1996 | +0.3% |
| 2000 | −16.0% |
| 2004 | −22.2% |
| 2008 | −24.6% |
| 2012 | −37.3% |
| 2016 | −51.2% |
| 2020 | −52.3% |
| 2024 | −53.2% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.
43,555 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+274 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −2,303 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $49,560 in average income, against $70,388 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+19.6 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Armstrong County, PA itself (R+53.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Westmoreland County, PA282R+28.4
- Allegheny County, PA226D+20.3
- Butler County, PA154R+32.2
- Indiana County, PA104R+39.1
- Clarion County, PA76R+53.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Westmoreland County, PA244
- Allegheny County, PA192
- Butler County, PA158
- Indiana County, PA119
- Clarion County, PA83
- Jefferson County, PA30
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −246 |
| 2012 | −264 |
| 2013 | −78 |
| 2014 | −200 |
| 2015 | −481 |
| 2016 | −265 |
| 2017 | −166 |
| 2018 | −376 |
| 2019 | −378 |
| 2021 | +90 |
| 2022 | +57 |
| 2023 | −199 |
| 2024 | −71 |
| 2025 | +274 |
Armstrong County, a post-industrial enclave in western Pennsylvania's Allegheny highlands, recorded an R+53.2 margin in 2024 — among the steepest in the state — reflecting a rural electorate that has shifted sharply away from its historic union-Democratic roots.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.0 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 56.6 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 53.2 points.
A population of 64,622, a 95% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,008 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Venango County and Somerset County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Armstrong County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42005/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.