HarrisDemocratic30.0%6,212TrumpRepublican69.2%14,345OliverLibertarian0.5%113
R+39.2- Lead
- 8,133
- Total
- 20,723
- vs nation
- R+37.8
- Turnout
- 68.8%
Akashiccounty
Warren County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.8% of 30,363 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic29.4%6,066TrumpRepublican68.9%14,237JorgensenLibertarian1.7%347
R+39.6- Lead
- 8,171
- Total
- 20,650
- vs nation
- R+44.0
- Turnout
- 66.8%
ClintonDemocratic27.7%5,145TrumpRepublican67.1%12,477JohnsonLibertarian3.0%549
R+39.4- Lead
- 7,332
- Total
- 18,606
- vs nation
- R+41.5
- Turnout
- 57.9%
ObamaDemocratic40.4%6,995RomneyRepublican57.9%10,010JohnsonLibertarian1.2%205
R+17.4- Lead
- 3,015
- Total
- 17,299
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.1%8,537McCainRepublican52.3%9,685OtherAll other candidates1.6%295
R+6.2- Lead
- 1,148
- Total
- 18,517
- vs nation
- R+13.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic41.7%8,044BushRepublican57.1%10,999OtherAll other candidates1.2%230
R+15.3- Lead
- 2,955
- Total
- 19,273
- vs nation
- R+12.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic42.9%7,537BushRepublican52.9%9,290NaderGreen2.7%466
R+10.0- Lead
- 1,753
- Total
- 17,552
- vs nation
- R+10.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic42.7%7,291DoleRepublican41.3%7,056PerotReform14.7%2,504
D+1.4- Lead
- 235
- Total
- 17,067
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+39.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 37,9202024 5-year
- Median household income
- $60,4802024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+27.8 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.4 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- McKean County, PA · twin score 83.6
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 68.8%20,896 participants ÷ 30,363 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 54.5%–55.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 18,775 | 32,417 | 57.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 14,638 | 32,071 | 45.6% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 21,129 | 31,617 | 66.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,228 | 30,879 | 52.6% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 20,896 | 30,363 | 68.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
66 precincts · 20,723 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0181421230181 | 509 | 1,114 | 16 | 1,639 | 31.1% | 68.0% | R+36.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0220421230220 | 440 | 863 | 6 | 1,309 | 33.6% | 65.9% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct 0140421230140 | 369 | 888 | 6 | 1,263 | 29.2% | 70.3% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct 0351421230351 | 487 | 689 | 16 | 1,192 | 40.9% | 57.8% | R+16.9 |
| Precinct 0060421230060 | 414 | 698 | 6 | 1,118 | 37.0% | 62.4% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct 0361421230361 | 414 | 645 | 11 | 1,070 | 38.7% | 60.3% | R+21.6 |
| Precinct 0420421230420 | 277 | 638 | 9 | 924 | 30.0% | 69.0% | R+39.1 |
| Precinct 0050421230050 | 223 | 688 | 2 | 913 | 24.4% | 75.4% | R+50.9 |
| Precinct 0231421230231 | 243 | 659 | 11 | 913 | 26.6% | 72.2% | R+45.6 |
| Precinct 0020421230020 | 242 | 634 | 8 | 884 | 27.4% | 71.7% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct 0255421230255 | 180 | 656 | 3 | 839 | 21.5% | 78.2% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct 0070421230070 | 199 | 555 | 4 | 758 | 26.3% | 73.2% | R+47.0 |
| Precinct 0165421230165 | 184 | 529 | 2 | 715 | 25.7% | 74.0% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct 0195421230195 | 162 | 522 | 6 | 690 | 23.5% | 75.7% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct 0400421230400 | 275 | 409 | 6 | 690 | 39.9% | 59.3% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct 0331421230331 | 264 | 388 | 7 | 659 | 40.1% | 58.9% | R+18.8 |
| Precinct 0110421230110 | 142 | 509 | 2 | 653 | 21.7% | 77.9% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct 0125421230125 | 93 | 459 | 3 | 555 | 16.8% | 82.7% | R+65.9 |
| Precinct 0320421230320 | 217 | 290 | 7 | 514 | 42.2% | 56.4% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct 0260421230260 | 80 | 350 | 8 | 438 | 18.3% | 79.9% | R+61.6 |
| Precinct 0100421230100 | 84 | 262 | 5 | 351 | 23.9% | 74.6% | R+50.7 |
| Precinct 0290421230290 | 86 | 247 | 6 | 339 | 25.4% | 72.9% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct 0300421230300 | 106 | 205 | 3 | 314 | 33.8% | 65.3% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct 0370421230370 | 120 | 186 | 4 | 310 | 38.7% | 60.0% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct 0090421230090 | 61 | 232 | 2 | 295 | 20.7% | 78.6% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct 0250421230250 | 32 | 229 | 1 | 262 | 12.2% | 87.4% | R+75.2 |
| Precinct 0150421230150 | 65 | 140 | 2 | 207 | 31.4% | 67.6% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct 0040421230040 | 55 | 148 | 1 | 204 | 27.0% | 72.5% | R+45.6 |
| Precinct 0080421230080 | 58 | 123 | 0 | 181 | 32.0% | 68.0% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct 0410421230410 | 62 | 111 | 0 | 173 | 35.8% | 64.2% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct 0310421230310 | 36 | 118 | 1 | 155 | 23.2% | 76.1% | R+52.9 |
| Precinct 0030421230030 | 22 | 97 | 1 | 120 | 18.3% | 80.8% | R+62.5 |
| Precinct 0010421230010 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 76 | 14.5% | 84.2% | R+69.7 |
| BEAR LAKE Voting District42_4212310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BROKENSTRAW TWP Voting District42_4212320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CHERRY GROVE TWP Voting District42_4212330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLARENDON Voting District42_4212340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COLUMBUS TWP Voting District42_4212350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEWANGO TWP PCT 0142_4212360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEWANGO TWP PCT 0242_4212370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DEERFIELD TWP Voting District42_4212380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELDRED TWP Voting District42_4212390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELK TWP Voting District42_42123100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FARMINGTON TWP Voting District42_42123110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FREEHOLD TWP Voting District42_42123125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GLADE TWP Voting District42_42123140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIMESTONE TWP Voting District42_42123150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MEAD TWP Voting District42_42123165 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PINE GROVE TWP Voting District42_42123181 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PITTSFIELD TWP Voting District42_42123195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PLEASANT TWP Voting District42_42123220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHEFFIELD TWP Voting District42_42123231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTHWEST TWP Voting District42_42123250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SPRING CREEK TWP Voting District42_42123260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUGAR GROVE TWP Voting District42_42123255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUGAR GROVE Voting District42_42123290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TIDIOUTE Voting District42_42123300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TRIUMPH TWP Voting District42_42123310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD CENTRAL42_42123320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD EAST42_42123351 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD NORTH42_42123400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD SOUTH42_42123370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD SOUTH EAST42_42123361 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARREN WD WEST42_42123331 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WATSON TWP Voting District42_42123410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| YOUNGSVILLE Voting District42_42123420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −14.9% |
| 1896 | −21.8% |
| 1900 | −36.0% |
| 1904 | −50.9% |
| 1908 | −34.8% |
| 1912 | +1.7% |
| 1916 | −11.0% |
| 1920 | −46.9% |
| 1924 | −52.9% |
| 1928 | −61.4% |
| 1932 | −19.0% |
| 1936 | −5.0% |
| 1940 | −30.6% |
| 1944 | −34.9% |
| 1948 | −33.4% |
| 1952 | −44.0% |
| 1956 | −46.1% |
| 1960 | −28.0% |
| 1964 | +27.8% |
| 1968 | −15.8% |
| 1972 | −33.9% |
| 1976 | −6.8% |
| 1980 | −22.6% |
| 1984 | −26.7% |
| 1988 | −13.8% |
| 1992 | +2.1% |
| 1996 | +1.4% |
| 2000 | −10.0% |
| 2004 | −15.3% |
| 2008 | −6.2% |
| 2012 | −17.4% |
| 2016 | −39.4% |
| 2020 | −39.6% |
| 2024 | −39.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+35.0
Presidential vote · 2024R+39.2
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 4.3 points more Democratic.
25,404 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−48 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,943 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $56,353 in average income, against $65,484 for residents who stayed — 14% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+14.2 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, PA itself (R+39.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Erie County, PA100R+1.0
- Chautauqua County, NY60R+21.9
- McKean County, PA34R+47.2
- Allegheny County, PA28D+20.3
- Crawford County, PA28R+39.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Erie County, PA109
- Chautauqua County, NY76
- Allegheny County, PA36
- McKean County, PA28
- Crawford County, PA22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −206 |
| 2012 | −130 |
| 2013 | −181 |
| 2014 | −197 |
| 2015 | −237 |
| 2016 | −234 |
| 2017 | −212 |
| 2018 | −43 |
| 2019 | −250 |
| 2021 | −122 |
| 2022 | −2 |
| 2023 | +24 |
| 2024 | −105 |
| 2025 | −48 |
Warren County, anchored by the city of Warren along the Allegheny River, has shifted decisively rightward over the past decade. In 2024 it recorded an R+39.3 presidential margin, placing it among Pennsylvania's most lopsided counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.8 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 61.4 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 39.2 points.
A population of 37,920, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $60,480 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of McKean County and Iron County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
McKean County
Pennsylvania
83.6twin score
% White% Evangelical% unaffiliated≠ Scottish ancestry
Iron County
Michigan
81.4twin score
Swedish ancestry% White12-yr trend≠ median age
Chautauqua County
New York
79.3twin score
Swedish ancestryelasticity% Evangelical≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warren County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42123/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Warren County
Pennsylvania at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Warren County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warren County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 39.2 points (R+39.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 20,723 votes cast, 6,212 went Democratic and 14,345 went Republican.
When did Warren County, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Warren County, Pennsylvania?
Warren County, Pennsylvania has a population of 37,920 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warren County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Warren County, Pennsylvania is $60,480 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Warren County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 30 went Republican.