Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District
Akashic| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | −12.1% |
| 2012 | −24.9% |
| 2016 | −36.4% |
| 2020 | −37.0% |
| 2024 | −38.0% |
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
| Year | District | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | R | 28.5%111,408 | 71.5%279,027 | 390,435 |
| 2022 | 15 | R | 30.1%91,729 | 69.9%213,417 | 305,146 |
| 2020 | 15 | R | 26.5%92,156 | 73.5%255,058 | 347,214 |
| 2018 | 15 | R | 32.2%78,327 | 67.8%165,245 | 243,572 |
| 2016 | 15 | R | 38.0%124,129 | 58.4%190,618 | 326,474 |
| 2014 | 15 | R | 0.0%0 | 100.0%128,285 | 128,285 |
| 2012 | 15 | R | 43.2%128,764 | 56.8%168,960 | 297,724 |
| 2010 | 15 | R | 39.0%79,766 | 53.5%109,534 | 204,548 |
| 2008 | 15 | R | 41.4%128,333 | 58.6%181,433 | 309,766 |
| 2006 | 15 | R | 43.5%86,186 | 53.6%106,153 | 198,173 |
| 2004 | 15 | R | 39.4%114,646 | 58.6%170,634 | 291,134 |
| 2002 | 15 | R | 42.6%73,212 | 57.4%98,493 | 171,713 |
| 2000 | 15 | R | 46.7%103,864 | 53.3%118,307 | 222,171 |
| 1998 | 15 | R | 45.0%66,930 | 55.0%81,755 | 148,706 |
| 1996 | 15 | D | 54.8%109,812 | 41.3%82,803 | 200,363 |
| 1994 | 15 | D | 47.8%72,073 | 47.4%71,602 | 150,909 |
| 1992 | 15 | D | 52.2%111,419 | 46.7%99,520 | 213,324 |
| 1990 | 15 | R | 39.4%50,233 | 60.6%77,178 | 127,411 |
| 1988 | 15 | R | 42.5%79,127 | 57.5%106,951 | 186,078 |
| 1986 | 15 | R | 43.2%56,972 | 56.8%74,829 | 131,801 |
| 1984 | 15 | R | 41.9%79,490 | 58.1%110,338 | 189,828 |
| 1982 | 15 | R | 42.2%58,002 | 57.8%79,455 | 137,457 |
| 1980 | 15 | R | 39.7%66,626 | 59.5%99,874 | 167,725 |
| 1978 | 15 | R | 46.8%58,077 | 53.2%65,986 | 124,063 |
| 1976 | 15 | D | 65.2%108,844 | 34.5%57,616 | 166,890 |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 48.6%3,384,180 | 48.8%3,399,295 | 6,963,137 |
| 2022 | D | 51.2%2,751,012 | 46.3%2,487,260 | 5,368,021 |
| 2018 | D | 55.6%2,777,680 | 42.7%2,134,848 | 4,994,643 |
| 2016 | R | 47.3%2,865,012 | 48.8%2,951,702 | 6,051,856 |
| 2012 | D | 53.7%3,021,364 | 44.6%2,509,132 | 5,627,422 |
| 2010 | R | 49.0%1,948,716 | 51.0%2,028,945 | 3,977,661 |
| 2006 | D | 58.7%2,392,984 | 41.3%1,684,778 | 4,077,762 |
| 2004 | R | 42.0%2,334,126 | 52.6%2,925,080 | 5,558,525 |
| 2000 | R | 45.5%2,154,908 | 52.4%2,481,962 | 4,735,116 |
| 1998 | R | 34.8%1,028,839 | 61.3%1,814,180 | 2,957,499 |
| 1994 | R | 46.9%1,648,481 | 49.4%1,735,691 | 3,513,112 |
| 1992 | R | 46.3%2,224,966 | 49.1%2,358,125 | 4,802,410 |
| 1988 | R | 32.4%1,416,764 | 66.5%2,901,715 | 4,366,598 |
| 1986 | R | 42.9%1,448,219 | 56.4%1,906,537 | 3,378,226 |
| 1982 | R | 39.2%1,412,965 | 59.3%2,136,418 | 3,604,108 |
| 1980 | R | 48.0%2,122,391 | 50.5%2,230,404 | 4,418,042 |
| 1976 | R | 46.8%2,126,977 | 52.4%2,381,891 | 4,546,353 |
Anchored in the rural south-central corridor of Pennsylvania, the district delivered a 44.8-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, making it an outlier even within a competitive swing state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 38.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 0.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.0 points.
A population of 764,744, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,472 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 13 and Congressional District 9.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.