- Lead
- 151,017
- Total
- 397,660
- vs nation
- R+36.5
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 143,547
- Total
- 387,908
- vs nation
- R+41.5
- Lead
- 125,721
- Total
- 348,708
- vs nation
- R+38.1
- Lead
- 78,473
- Total
- 319,637
- vs nation
- R+28.4
- Lead
- 42,783
- Total
- 340,175
- vs nation
- R+19.8
- Lead
- 76,422
- Total
- 329,723
- vs nation
- R+20.7
- Lead
- 62,751
- Total
- 283,532
- vs nation
- R+22.7
- Lead
- 19,308
- Total
- 267,245
- vs nation
- R+15.7
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+38.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 764,7442024 5-year
- Population density
- 59 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 12,982 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $65,4722024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 90.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+19.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.9 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 13, PA · twin score 97.8
presidential history
Party record book
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
59.6%
158,227 votes · D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Samuel J. Tilden, 1876 · 48.6%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
75.1%
164,946 votes · R+50.9 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 68.6%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
158,227votes
59.6% of the vote · D+19.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 145,454 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
272,654votes
68.6% of the vote · R+38.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 263,041 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
−3.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+19.5 · U.S. D+22.6 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · −4.6 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+41.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+37.0 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +38.1 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Anchored in the rural south-central corridor of Pennsylvania, the district delivered a 38.0-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, making it an outlier even within a competitive swing state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 19.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 50.9 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.0 points.
A population of 764,744, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,472 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 13 and Congressional District 9.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
District research tools
Open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report → · Browse all comparisons →
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.