HarrisDemocratic20.4%4,707TrumpRepublican78.8%18,235OliverLibertarian0.6%131
R+58.5- Lead
- 13,528
- Total
- 23,129
- vs nation
- R+57.0
- Turnout
- 67.4%
Akashiccounty
Jefferson County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.4% of 34,380 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.8%4,527TrumpRepublican78.7%17,960JorgensenLibertarian1.5%337
R+58.9- Lead
- 13,433
- Total
- 22,824
- vs nation
- R+63.3
- Turnout
- 67.2%
ClintonDemocratic18.6%3,650TrumpRepublican77.5%15,192JohnsonLibertarian2.2%432
R+58.9- Lead
- 11,542
- Total
- 19,595
- vs nation
- R+61.0
- Turnout
- 56.0%
ObamaDemocratic26.3%4,787RomneyRepublican71.8%13,048JohnsonLibertarian1.0%173
R+45.4- Lead
- 8,261
- Total
- 18,178
- vs nation
- R+49.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic34.3%6,447McCainRepublican64.1%12,057OtherAll other candidates1.6%298
R+29.8- Lead
- 5,610
- Total
- 18,802
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic31.0%6,073BushRepublican68.4%13,371OtherAll other candidates0.6%116
R+37.3- Lead
- 7,298
- Total
- 19,560
- vs nation
- R+34.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.7%5,566BushRepublican65.2%11,473NaderGreen1.9%339
R+33.6- Lead
- 5,907
- Total
- 17,586
- vs nation
- R+34.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic35.5%5,846DoleRepublican49.6%8,156PerotReform14.1%2,322
R+14.0- Lead
- 2,310
- Total
- 16,457
- vs nation
- R+22.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 43,8642024 5-year
- Population density
- 67 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 652 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $58,6862024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+12.9 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58.9 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Somerset County, PA · twin score 92.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.4%23,189 participants ÷ 34,380 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -1.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.6%–54.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 19,618 | 35,052 | 56.0% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 15,649 | 34,643 | 45.2% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 22,976 | 34,213 | 67.2% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 17,869 | 34,815 | 51.3% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 23,189 | 34,380 | 67.4% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
presidential history
Party record book
Jefferson County, PA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
56.3%
10,851 votes · D+12.9
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 47.5%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
78.8%
18,235 votes · R+58.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
11,080votes
47.5% of the vote · R+3.7
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 10,851 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
18,235votes
78.8% of the vote · R+58.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 17,960 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1912
−9.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+10.5 · U.S. D+19.5 · a third-party candidate carried the Place
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · −9.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+63.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+58.9 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +61.0 pts
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+49.9
Presidential vote · 2024R+58.5
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 8.6 points more Republican than the rolls.
28,056 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+80 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,544 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $45,107 in average income, against $63,378 for residents who stayed — 29% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+45.6 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Jefferson County, PA itself (R+58.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Clearfield County, PA199R+51.5
- Indiana County, PA76R+39.1
- Clarion County, PA75R+53.1
- Elk County, PA40R+47.0
- Armstrong County, PA30R+53.2
- Allegheny County, PA23D+20.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Clearfield County, PA181
- Indiana County, PA87
- Clarion County, PA85
- Allegheny County, PA50
- Elk County, PA41
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −197 |
| 2012 | −74 |
| 2013 | +106 |
| 2014 | −285 |
| 2015 | −161 |
| 2016 | −237 |
| 2017 | −122 |
| 2018 | −118 |
| 2019 | −128 |
| 2021 | −167 |
| 2022 | −153 |
| 2023 | +50 |
| 2024 | −138 |
| 2025 | +80 |
A rural, heavily forested county in the Allegheny Plateau, Jefferson delivered a 58.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024—among the widest gaps in a state defined by its competitive, closely divided major metros.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 12.9 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 58.9 points in 2016. The 2024 margin was 58.5 points.
A population of 43,864, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,686 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Somerset County and Clarion County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Somerset County
Pennsylvania
92.0twin score
2012–2024 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Clarion County
Pennsylvania
89.8twin score
% White2020–2024 trajectory% Latino≠ Italian ancestry
Huntingdon County
Pennsylvania
87.9twin score
2000–2024 trajectory≠ Italian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Jefferson County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42065/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Jefferson County
Pennsylvania at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Jefferson County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Jefferson County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 58.5 points (R+58.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 23,129 votes cast, 4,707 went Democratic and 18,235 went Republican.
When did Jefferson County, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Jefferson County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania?
Jefferson County, Pennsylvania has a population of 43,864 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania is $58,686 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Jefferson County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Jefferson County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 32 went Republican.