- Lead
- 23,397
- Total
- 40,881
- vs nation
- R+55.8
- Turnout
- 69.5%
Somerset County, PA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 69.5% of 59,155 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 22,812
- Total
- 40,543
- vs nation
- R+60.7
- Turnout
- 68.6%
- Lead
- 20,003
- Total
- 36,073
- vs nation
- R+57.5
- Turnout
- 59.2%
- Lead
- 14,548
- Total
- 34,078
- vs nation
- R+46.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 8,808
- Total
- 35,168
- vs nation
- R+32.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 10,960
- Total
- 36,778
- vs nation
- R+27.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 8,190
- Total
- 32,985
- vs nation
- R+25.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,016
- Total
- 31,591
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+57.2MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 72,7992024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,4462024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.3%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+9.5 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+59.1 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Jefferson County, PA · twin score 92.0
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 69.5%41,099 participants ÷ 59,155 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.1 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 55.3%–56.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 36,585 | 61,842 | 59.2% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 29,012 | 60,778 | 47.7% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 41,287 | 60,220 | 68.6% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 32,752 | 60,171 | 54.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 41,099 | 59,155 | 69.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
136 precincts · 40,881 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0570421110570 | 493 | 1,116 | 22 | 1,631 | 30.2% | 68.4% | R+38.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0520421110520 | 244 | 1,223 | 8 | 1,475 | 16.5% | 82.9% | R+66.4 |
| Precinct 0080421110080 | 177 | 1,250 | 5 | 1,432 | 12.4% | 87.3% | R+74.9 |
| Precinct 0530421110530 | 291 | 1,110 | 8 | 1,409 | 20.7% | 78.8% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct 0590421110590 | 159 | 1,127 | 7 | 1,293 | 12.3% | 87.2% | R+74.9 |
| Precinct 0120421110120 | 319 | 897 | 11 | 1,227 | 26.0% | 73.1% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct 0610421110610 | 177 | 972 | 5 | 1,154 | 15.3% | 84.2% | R+68.9 |
| Precinct 0050421110050 | 213 | 908 | 6 | 1,127 | 18.9% | 80.6% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct 0510421110510 | 197 | 913 | 5 | 1,115 | 17.7% | 81.9% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct 0250421110250 | 256 | 847 | 8 | 1,111 | 23.0% | 76.2% | R+53.2 |
| Precinct 0430421110430 | 202 | 872 | 5 | 1,079 | 18.7% | 80.8% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct 0320421110320 | 231 | 814 | 5 | 1,050 | 22.0% | 77.5% | R+55.5 |
| Precinct 0240421110240 | 263 | 762 | 9 | 1,034 | 25.4% | 73.7% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct 0300421110300 | 170 | 820 | 2 | 992 | 17.1% | 82.7% | R+65.5 |
| Precinct 0540421110540 | 176 | 789 | 3 | 968 | 18.2% | 81.5% | R+63.3 |
| Precinct 0130421110130 | 235 | 706 | 7 | 948 | 24.8% | 74.5% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct 0340421110340 | 165 | 771 | 8 | 944 | 17.5% | 81.7% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct 0390421110390 | 186 | 678 | 11 | 875 | 21.3% | 77.5% | R+56.2 |
| Precinct 0140421110140 | 193 | 670 | 7 | 870 | 22.2% | 77.0% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct 0150421110150 | 238 | 621 | 3 | 862 | 27.6% | 72.0% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct 0400421110400 | 238 | 608 | 4 | 850 | 28.0% | 71.5% | R+43.5 |
| Precinct 0180421110180 | 155 | 674 | 10 | 839 | 18.5% | 80.3% | R+61.9 |
| Precinct 0560421110560 | 210 | 618 | 3 | 831 | 25.3% | 74.4% | R+49.1 |
| Precinct 0620421110620 | 83 | 612 | 5 | 700 | 11.9% | 87.4% | R+75.6 |
| Precinct 0660421110660 | 204 | 475 | 8 | 687 | 29.7% | 69.1% | R+39.4 |
| Precinct 0550421110550 | 181 | 482 | 5 | 668 | 27.1% | 72.2% | R+45.1 |
| Precinct 0070421110070 | 176 | 456 | 3 | 635 | 27.7% | 71.8% | R+44.1 |
| Precinct 0260421110260 | 109 | 489 | 5 | 603 | 18.1% | 81.1% | R+63.0 |
| Precinct 0490421110490 | 124 | 471 | 6 | 601 | 20.6% | 78.4% | R+57.7 |
| Precinct 0110421110110 | 108 | 422 | 8 | 538 | 20.1% | 78.4% | R+58.4 |
| Precinct 0330421110330 | 122 | 413 | 1 | 536 | 22.8% | 77.1% | R+54.3 |
| Precinct 0060421110060 | 57 | 464 | 2 | 523 | 10.9% | 88.7% | R+77.8 |
| Precinct 0650421110650 | 179 | 321 | 5 | 505 | 35.4% | 63.6% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct 0010421110010 | 104 | 396 | 3 | 503 | 20.7% | 78.7% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct 0480421110480 | 130 | 352 | 5 | 487 | 26.7% | 72.3% | R+45.6 |
| Precinct 0420421110420 | 132 | 329 | 3 | 464 | 28.4% | 70.9% | R+42.5 |
| Precinct 0270421110270 | 68 | 374 | 7 | 449 | 15.1% | 83.3% | R+68.2 |
| Precinct 0450421110450 | 87 | 354 | 4 | 445 | 19.6% | 79.6% | R+60.0 |
| Precinct 0280421110280 | 95 | 341 | 3 | 439 | 21.6% | 77.7% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct 0440421110440 | 91 | 339 | 2 | 432 | 21.1% | 78.5% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct 0030421110030 | 61 | 348 | 4 | 413 | 14.8% | 84.3% | R+69.5 |
| Precinct 0680421110680 | 137 | 260 | 3 | 400 | 34.3% | 65.0% | R+30.8 |
| Precinct 0470421110470 | 65 | 329 | 3 | 397 | 16.4% | 82.9% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct 0580421110580 | 23 | 351 | 1 | 375 | 6.1% | 93.6% | R+87.5 |
| Precinct 0670421110670 | 144 | 225 | 6 | 375 | 38.4% | 60.0% | R+21.6 |
| Precinct 0290421110290 | 32 | 329 | 2 | 363 | 8.8% | 90.6% | R+81.8 |
| Precinct 0210421110210 | 50 | 304 | 5 | 359 | 13.9% | 84.7% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct 0230421110230 | 120 | 229 | 2 | 351 | 34.2% | 65.2% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct 0220421110220 | 81 | 256 | 5 | 342 | 23.7% | 74.9% | R+51.2 |
| Precinct 0160421110160 | 72 | 267 | 0 | 339 | 21.2% | 78.8% | R+57.5 |
| Precinct 0170421110170 | 108 | 223 | 3 | 334 | 32.3% | 66.8% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct 0380421110380 | 61 | 255 | 2 | 318 | 19.2% | 80.2% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct 0310421110310 | 61 | 226 | 2 | 289 | 21.1% | 78.2% | R+57.1 |
| Precinct 0410421110410 | 51 | 231 | 1 | 283 | 18.0% | 81.6% | R+63.6 |
| Precinct 0370421110370 | 37 | 186 | 1 | 224 | 16.5% | 83.0% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct 0200421110200 | 31 | 177 | 1 | 209 | 14.8% | 84.7% | R+69.9 |
| Precinct 0600421110600 | 49 | 143 | 1 | 193 | 25.4% | 74.1% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct 0040421110040 | 29 | 95 | 2 | 126 | 23.0% | 75.4% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct 0360421110360 | 17 | 107 | 0 | 124 | 13.7% | 86.3% | R+72.6 |
| Precinct 0630421110630 | 22 | 96 | 3 | 121 | 18.2% | 79.3% | R+61.2 |
| Precinct 0640421110640 | 15 | 105 | 0 | 120 | 12.5% | 87.5% | R+75.0 |
| Precinct 0500421110500 | 14 | 104 | 0 | 118 | 11.9% | 88.1% | R+76.3 |
| Precinct 0020421110020 | 27 | 80 | 2 | 109 | 24.8% | 73.4% | R+48.6 |
| Precinct 0350421110350 | 27 | 69 | 2 | 98 | 27.6% | 70.4% | R+42.9 |
| Precinct 0190421110190 | 12 | 66 | 1 | 79 | 15.2% | 83.5% | R+68.4 |
| Precinct 0100421110100 | 6 | 46 | 3 | 55 | 10.9% | 83.6% | R+72.7 |
| Precinct 0090421110090 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 25 | 24.0% | 76.0% | R+52.0 |
| Precinct 0460421110460 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 100.0% | R+100.0 |
| ADDISON TWP Voting District42_4211110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ADDISON Voting District42_4211120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ALLEGHENY TWP Voting District42_4211130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BENSON Voting District42_4211140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BERLIN Voting District42_4211150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BLACK TWP Voting District42_4211160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BOSWELL Voting District42_4211170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BROTHERS VALLEY TWP Voting District42_4211180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CALLIMONT Voting District42_4211190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CASSELMAN Voting District42_42111100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CENTRAL CITY Voting District42_42111110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEMAUGH TWP VTD 0142_42111120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEMAUGH TWP VTD 0242_42111130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEMAUGH TWP VTD 0342_42111140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEMAUGH TWP VTD 0442_42111150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONEMAUGH TWP VTD 0542_42111160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CONFLUENCE Voting District42_42111170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELK LICK TWP Voting District42_42111180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FAIRHOPE TWP Voting District42_42111190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GARRETT Voting District42_42111200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENVILLE TWP Voting District42_42111210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HOOVERSVILLE Voting District42_42111220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| INDIAN LAKE Voting District42_42111230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JEFFERSON TWP Voting District42_42111240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JENNER TWP VTD 0142_42111250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JENNER TWP VTD 0242_42111260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JENNER TWP VTD 0342_42111270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JENNERSTOWN Voting District42_42111280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LARIMER TWP Voting District42_42111290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LINCOLN TWP Voting District42_42111300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LOWER TURKEYFOOT TWP Voting District42_42111310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MEYERSDALE Voting District42_42111320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MIDDLECREEK TWP Voting District42_42111330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MILFORD TWP Voting District42_42111340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NEW BALTIMORE Voting District42_42111350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NEW CENTERVILLE Voting District42_42111360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTHAMPTON TWP Voting District42_42111370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OGLE TWP Voting District42_42111380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PAINT TWP VTD 0142_42111390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PAINT TWP VTD 0242_42111400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PAINT TWP VTD 0342_42111410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PAINT Voting District42_42111420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| QUEMAHONING TWP Voting District42_42111430 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROCKWOOD Voting District42_42111440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SALISBURY Voting District42_42111450 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SEVEN SPRINGS Voting District42_42111460 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHADE TWP VTD 0142_42111470 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHADE TWP VTD 0242_42111480 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHADE TWP VTD 0342_42111490 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHANKSVILLE Voting District42_42111500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET TWP VTD 0142_42111510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET TWP VTD 0242_42111520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET TWP VTD 0342_42111530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET TWP VTD 0442_42111540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET VTD EAST42_42111550 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET VTD NORTH WEST42_42111560 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOMERSET VTD SOUTH WEST42_42111570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTHAMPTON TWP Voting District42_42111580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| STONYCREEK TWP Voting District42_42111590 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| STOYSTOWN Voting District42_42111600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SUMMIT TWP Voting District42_42111610 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UPPER TURKEYFOOT TWP Voting District42_42111620 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| URSINA Voting District42_42111630 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WELLERSBURG Voting District42_42111640 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDBER VTD 0142_42111650 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDBER VTD 0242_42111660 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDBER VTD 0342_42111670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WINDBER VTD 0442_42111680 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −33.5% |
| 1896 | −42.9% |
| 1900 | −49.7% |
| 1904 | −54.3% |
| 1908 | −44.6% |
| 1912 | +7.7% |
| 1916 | −31.1% |
| 1920 | −58.1% |
| 1924 | −59.1% |
| 1928 | −56.6% |
| 1932 | −19.4% |
| 1936 | −3.5% |
| 1940 | −10.4% |
| 1944 | −21.8% |
| 1948 | −22.6% |
| 1952 | −17.0% |
| 1956 | −21.9% |
| 1960 | −16.5% |
| 1964 | +9.5% |
| 1968 | −19.4% |
| 1972 | −38.1% |
| 1976 | −8.4% |
| 1980 | −19.8% |
| 1984 | −16.7% |
| 1988 | −9.7% |
| 1992 | −4.2% |
| 1996 | −6.4% |
| 2000 | −24.8% |
| 2004 | −29.8% |
| 2008 | −25.0% |
| 2012 | −42.7% |
| 2016 | −55.5% |
| 2020 | −56.3% |
| 2024 | −57.2% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 11 points more Democratic.
48,472 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+163 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −1,426 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,742 in average income, against $66,477 for residents who stayed — 10% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+33.8 on average — 23 points more Democratic-leaning than Somerset County, PA itself (R+57.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Cambria County, PA272R+39.7
- Westmoreland County, PA64R+28.4
- Allegheny County, PA59D+20.3
- Fayette County, PA51R+37.9
- Bedford County, PA33R+68.6
- Garrett County, MD29R+53.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cambria County, PA276
- Westmoreland County, PA107
- Allegheny County, PA92
- Fayette County, PA52
- Bedford County, PA27
- Garrett County, MD24
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −127 |
| 2012 | −99 |
| 2013 | −91 |
| 2014 | −203 |
| 2015 | −430 |
| 2016 | −270 |
| 2017 | −298 |
| 2018 | −95 |
| 2019 | −137 |
| 2021 | −448 |
| 2022 | +239 |
| 2023 | +78 |
| 2024 | +292 |
| 2025 | +163 |
Somerset County's R+57.2 margin in 2024 places it among the most lopsided presidential results in the state, reflecting a rural, post-coal economy where Democratic vote share has eroded sharply over two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 9.5 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 59.1 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.2 points.
A population of 72,799, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,446 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jefferson County and Armstrong County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Somerset County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42111/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.