HarrisDemocratic23.6%5,100TrumpRepublican75.4%16,272OliverLibertarian0.7%144
R+51.8- Lead
- 11,172
- Total
- 21,587
- vs nation
- R+50.3
- Turnout
- 66.2%
Akashiccounty
Tioga County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 66.2% of 32,777 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic23.5%4,955TrumpRepublican74.7%15,742JorgensenLibertarian1.8%378
R+51.2- Lead
- 10,787
- Total
- 21,075
- vs nation
- R+55.6
- Turnout
- 65.1%
ClintonDemocratic21.1%3,901TrumpRepublican73.6%13,614JohnsonLibertarian3.0%548
R+52.5- Lead
- 9,713
- Total
- 18,507
- vs nation
- R+54.6
- Turnout
- 55.6%
ObamaDemocratic31.3%5,357RomneyRepublican66.4%11,342JohnsonLibertarian1.1%195
R+35.0- Lead
- 5,985
- Total
- 17,094
- vs nation
- R+38.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic35.5%6,390McCainRepublican63.0%11,326OtherAll other candidates1.5%268
R+27.4- Lead
- 4,936
- Total
- 17,984
- vs nation
- R+34.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic30.9%5,437BushRepublican68.4%12,019OtherAll other candidates0.7%115
R+37.5- Lead
- 6,582
- Total
- 17,571
- vs nation
- R+35.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.3%4,617BushRepublican65.2%9,635NaderGreen2.7%404
R+34.0- Lead
- 5,018
- Total
- 14,772
- vs nation
- R+34.5
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic34.4%4,961DoleRepublican51.2%7,382PerotReform13.8%1,993
R+16.8- Lead
- 2,421
- Total
- 14,425
- vs nation
- R+25.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+51.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 40,9452024 5-year
- Median household income
- $64,8992024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+2.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+74.7 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Preston County, WV · twin score 89.4
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 66.2%21,707 participants ÷ 32,777 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.2 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -2.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 52.0%–54.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 18,579 | 33,392 | 55.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 14,926 | 32,813 | 45.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 21,131 | 32,456 | 65.1% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,779 | 32,974 | 50.9% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 21,707 | 32,777 | 66.2% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
84 precincts · 21,587 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0045421170045 | 521 | 1,487 | 20 | 2,028 | 25.7% | 73.3% | R+47.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0320421170320 | 305 | 971 | 9 | 1,285 | 23.7% | 75.6% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct 0100421170100 | 277 | 788 | 14 | 1,079 | 25.7% | 73.0% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct 0190421170190 | 224 | 838 | 11 | 1,073 | 20.9% | 78.1% | R+57.2 |
| Precinct 0430421170430 | 372 | 560 | 9 | 941 | 39.5% | 59.5% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct 0251421170251 | 397 | 505 | 12 | 914 | 43.4% | 55.3% | R+11.8 |
| Precinct 0420421170420 | 321 | 576 | 13 | 910 | 35.3% | 63.3% | R+28.0 |
| Precinct 0210421170210 | 149 | 697 | 4 | 850 | 17.5% | 82.0% | R+64.5 |
| Precinct 0360421170360 | 152 | 684 | 11 | 847 | 17.9% | 80.8% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct 0020421170020 | 212 | 548 | 11 | 771 | 27.5% | 71.1% | R+43.6 |
| Precinct 0150421170150 | 197 | 561 | 9 | 767 | 25.7% | 73.1% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct 0270421170270 | 126 | 608 | 6 | 740 | 17.0% | 82.2% | R+65.1 |
| Precinct 0080421170080 | 122 | 477 | 4 | 603 | 20.2% | 79.1% | R+58.9 |
| Precinct 0230421170230 | 112 | 482 | 6 | 600 | 18.7% | 80.3% | R+61.7 |
| Precinct 0110421170110 | 118 | 433 | 4 | 555 | 21.3% | 78.0% | R+56.8 |
| Precinct 0392421170392 | 92 | 460 | 2 | 554 | 16.6% | 83.0% | R+66.4 |
| Precinct 0370421170370 | 99 | 402 | 5 | 506 | 19.6% | 79.4% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct 0340421170340 | 100 | 374 | 3 | 477 | 21.0% | 78.4% | R+57.4 |
| Precinct 0445421170445 | 83 | 372 | 5 | 460 | 18.0% | 80.9% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct 0460421170460 | 90 | 307 | 2 | 399 | 22.6% | 76.9% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct 0160421170160 | 85 | 309 | 3 | 397 | 21.4% | 77.8% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct 0060421170060 | 76 | 303 | 3 | 382 | 19.9% | 79.3% | R+59.4 |
| Precinct 0070421170070 | 63 | 295 | 1 | 359 | 17.5% | 82.2% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct 0280421170280 | 61 | 289 | 6 | 356 | 17.1% | 81.2% | R+64.0 |
| Precinct 0090421170090 | 53 | 272 | 3 | 328 | 16.2% | 82.9% | R+66.8 |
| Precinct 0170421170170 | 66 | 261 | 1 | 328 | 20.1% | 79.6% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct 0200421170200 | 81 | 236 | 5 | 322 | 25.2% | 73.3% | R+48.1 |
| Precinct 0220421170220 | 86 | 227 | 6 | 319 | 27.0% | 71.2% | R+44.2 |
| Precinct 0291421170291 | 53 | 224 | 4 | 281 | 18.9% | 79.7% | R+60.9 |
| Precinct 0300421170300 | 50 | 224 | 5 | 279 | 17.9% | 80.3% | R+62.4 |
| Precinct 0380421170380 | 70 | 199 | 1 | 270 | 25.9% | 73.7% | R+47.8 |
| Precinct 0350421170350 | 32 | 212 | 2 | 246 | 13.0% | 86.2% | R+73.2 |
| Precinct 0180421170180 | 36 | 191 | 3 | 230 | 15.7% | 83.0% | R+67.4 |
| Precinct 0310421170310 | 46 | 170 | 6 | 222 | 20.7% | 76.6% | R+55.9 |
| Precinct 0010421170010 | 39 | 179 | 0 | 218 | 17.9% | 82.1% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct 0030421170030 | 47 | 171 | 0 | 218 | 21.6% | 78.4% | R+56.9 |
| Precinct 0410421170410 | 28 | 109 | 0 | 137 | 20.4% | 79.6% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct 0240421170240 | 19 | 102 | 0 | 121 | 15.7% | 84.3% | R+68.6 |
| Precinct 0120421170120 | 17 | 85 | 2 | 104 | 16.3% | 81.7% | R+65.4 |
| Precinct 0330421170330 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 84 | 21.4% | 76.2% | R+54.8 |
| Precinct 0130421170130 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 27 | 18.5% | 74.1% | R+55.6 |
| BLOSS TWP Voting District42_4211710 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BLOSSBURG Voting District42_4211720 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BROOKFIELD TWP Voting District42_4211730 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CHARLESTON TWP VTD NORTH42_4211740 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CHARLESTON TWP VTD SOUTH42_4211750 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CHATHAM TWP Voting District42_4211760 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLYMER TWP Voting District42_4211770 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COVINGTON TWP Voting District42_4211780 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DEERFIELD TWP Voting District42_4211790 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DELMAR TWP VTD NORTH42_42117100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DELMAR TWP VTD SOUTH42_42117110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DUNCAN TWP Voting District42_42117120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELK TWP Voting District42_42117130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ELKLAND Voting District42_42117150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| FARMINGTON TWP Voting District42_42117160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GAINES TWP Voting District42_42117170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HAMILTON TWP Voting District42_42117180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON TWP Voting District42_42117190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KNOXVILLE Voting District42_42117200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LAWRENCE TWP Voting District42_42117210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LAWRENCEVILLE Voting District42_42117220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIBERTY TWP Voting District42_42117230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIBERTY Voting District42_42117240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MANSFIELD Voting District42_42117251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MIDDLEBURY TWP Voting District42_42117270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MORRIS TWP Voting District42_42117280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NELSON TWP Voting District42_42117291 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| OSCEOLA TWP Voting District42_42117300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PUTNAM TWP Voting District42_42117310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RICHMOND TWP Voting District42_42117320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROSEVILLE Voting District42_42117330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RUTLAND TWP Voting District42_42117340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHIPPEN TWP Voting District42_42117350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SULLIVAN TWP Voting District42_42117360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TIOGA TWP Voting District42_42117370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| TIOGA Voting District42_42117380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP VTD NORTH42_42117390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP VTD SOUTH42_42117400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WARD TWP Voting District42_42117410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WELLSBORO WD 0142_42117420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WELLSBORO WD 0242_42117430 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WESTFIELD TWP VTD 0142_42117440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WESTFIELD Voting District42_42117460 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −36.6% |
| 1896 | −45.9% |
| 1900 | −45.9% |
| 1904 | −62.8% |
| 1908 | −47.5% |
| 1912 | +0.1% |
| 1916 | −37.9% |
| 1920 | −72.5% |
| 1924 | −69.0% |
| 1928 | −74.7% |
| 1932 | −51.5% |
| 1936 | −39.3% |
| 1940 | −44.7% |
| 1944 | −52.0% |
| 1948 | −54.1% |
| 1952 | −57.5% |
| 1956 | −53.5% |
| 1960 | −46.2% |
| 1964 | +2.4% |
| 1968 | −41.9% |
| 1972 | −45.2% |
| 1976 | −18.2% |
| 1980 | −32.5% |
| 1984 | −44.2% |
| 1988 | −32.5% |
| 1992 | −17.9% |
| 1996 | −16.8% |
| 2000 | −34.0% |
| 2004 | −37.5% |
| 2008 | −27.4% |
| 2012 | −35.0% |
| 2016 | −52.5% |
| 2020 | −51.2% |
| 2024 | −51.8% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+49.2
Presidential vote · 2024R+51.8
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.5 points.
26,787 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+167 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −641 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $56,690 in average income, against $68,643 for residents who stayed — 17% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+41.5 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Tioga County, PA itself (R+51.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Steuben County, NY68R+31.7
- Bradford County, PA63R+47.9
- Potter County, PA49R+62.3
- Lycoming County, PA38R+41.5
- Chemung County, NY30R+16.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Steuben County, NY82
- Bradford County, PA65
- Lycoming County, PA62
- Chemung County, NY45
- Potter County, PA36
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +298 |
| 2012 | +176 |
| 2013 | −228 |
| 2014 | −288 |
| 2015 | −408 |
| 2016 | −269 |
| 2017 | −500 |
| 2018 | +64 |
| 2019 | −24 |
| 2021 | +467 |
| 2022 | −125 |
| 2023 | −46 |
| 2024 | +75 |
| 2025 | +167 |
Tioga's heavily rural, timber-and-agriculture economy anchors one of north-central Pennsylvania's most consistent Republican strongholds, where the 2024 presidential margin exceeded 50 points and population has trended downward for decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 2.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 74.7 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.8 points.
A population of 40,945, a 95% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $64,899 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Preston County and Potter County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Preston County
West Virginia
89.4twin score
2016–2024 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ Polish ancestry
Potter County
Pennsylvania
86.3twin score
2000–2016 trajectory% White≠ Swedish ancestry
Clinton County
Ohio
83.0twin score
2000–2020 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ American ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tioga County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42117/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Tioga County
Pennsylvania at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Tioga County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tioga County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 51.8 points (R+51.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 21,587 votes cast, 5,100 went Democratic and 16,272 went Republican.
When did Tioga County, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tioga County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Tioga County, Pennsylvania?
Tioga County, Pennsylvania has a population of 40,945 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tioga County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Tioga County, Pennsylvania is $64,899 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Tioga County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tioga County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 32 went Republican.