HarrisDemocratic37.8%8,015TrumpRepublican61.2%12,969SteinIndependent0.5%104
R+23.4- Lead
- 4,954
- Total
- 21,188
- vs nation
- R+21.9
- Turnout
- 62.4%
Akashiccounty
Union County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 62.4% of 33,956 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic37.2%7,475TrumpRepublican61.4%12,356JorgensenLibertarian1.4%284
R+24.3- Lead
- 4,881
- Total
- 20,115
- vs nation
- R+28.7
- Turnout
- 55.8%
ClintonDemocratic34.9%6,180TrumpRepublican60.0%10,622JohnsonLibertarian2.5%450
R+25.1- Lead
- 4,442
- Total
- 17,696
- vs nation
- R+27.2
- Turnout
- 49.7%
ObamaDemocratic37.4%6,109RomneyRepublican60.6%9,896JohnsonLibertarian1.1%184
R+23.2- Lead
- 3,787
- Total
- 16,337
- vs nation
- R+27.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic42.1%7,333McCainRepublican56.7%9,859OtherAll other candidates1.2%208
R+14.5- Lead
- 2,526
- Total
- 17,400
- vs nation
- R+21.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic35.4%5,700BushRepublican64.1%10,334OtherAll other candidates0.6%89
R+28.7- Lead
- 4,634
- Total
- 16,123
- vs nation
- R+26.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic31.9%4,209BushRepublican64.7%8,523NaderGreen2.8%373
R+32.7- Lead
- 4,314
- Total
- 13,175
- vs nation
- R+33.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic31.2%3,658DoleRepublican56.0%6,570PerotReform12.2%1,431
R+24.8- Lead
- 2,912
- Total
- 11,724
- vs nation
- R+33.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+23.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,4562024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,4042024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 86.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+18.9 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+75.7 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Lebanon County, PA · twin score 78.1
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 62.4%21,188 participants ÷ 33,956 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +8.6 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -8.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 53.3%–53.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 17,945 | 36,097 | 49.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 14,558 | 36,386 | 40.0% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 20,200 | 36,213 | 55.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 16,225 | 34,363 | 47.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 21,188 | 33,956 | 62.4% | C/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
54 precincts · 21,188 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0210421190210 | 288 | 1,189 | 18 | 1,495 | 19.3% | 79.5% | R+60.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0090421190090 | 554 | 824 | 15 | 1,393 | 39.8% | 59.2% | R+19.4 |
| Precinct 0010421190010 | 344 | 973 | 15 | 1,332 | 25.8% | 73.0% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct 0030421190030 | 686 | 584 | 19 | 1,289 | 53.2% | 45.3% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct 0040421190040 | 795 | 462 | 7 | 1,264 | 62.9% | 36.6% | D+26.3 |
| Precinct 0051421190051 | 664 | 503 | 6 | 1,173 | 56.6% | 42.9% | D+13.7 |
| Precinct 0140421190140 | 770 | 381 | 5 | 1,156 | 66.6% | 33.0% | D+33.7 |
| Precinct 0170421190170 | 332 | 716 | 8 | 1,056 | 31.4% | 67.8% | R+36.4 |
| Precinct 0200421190200 | 366 | 606 | 12 | 984 | 37.2% | 61.6% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct 0080421190080 | 160 | 773 | 8 | 941 | 17.0% | 82.1% | R+65.1 |
| Precinct 0180421190180 | 242 | 613 | 5 | 860 | 28.1% | 71.3% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct 0160421190160 | 166 | 655 | 10 | 831 | 20.0% | 78.8% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct 0055421190055 | 496 | 304 | 2 | 802 | 61.8% | 37.9% | D+23.9 |
| Precinct 0230421190230 | 153 | 612 | 11 | 776 | 19.7% | 78.9% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct 0220421190220 | 152 | 593 | 7 | 752 | 20.2% | 78.9% | R+58.6 |
| Precinct 0110421190110 | 83 | 568 | 6 | 657 | 12.6% | 86.5% | R+73.8 |
| Precinct 0150421190150 | 369 | 277 | 9 | 655 | 56.3% | 42.3% | D+14.0 |
| Precinct 0130421190130 | 390 | 133 | 4 | 527 | 74.0% | 25.2% | D+48.8 |
| Precinct 0240421190240 | 110 | 401 | 9 | 520 | 21.2% | 77.1% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct 0020421190020 | 113 | 351 | 3 | 467 | 24.2% | 75.2% | R+51.0 |
| Precinct 0060421190060 | 81 | 361 | 2 | 444 | 18.2% | 81.3% | R+63.1 |
| Precinct 0190421190190 | 113 | 323 | 8 | 444 | 25.5% | 72.7% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct 0120421190120 | 308 | 122 | 8 | 438 | 70.3% | 27.9% | D+42.5 |
| Precinct 0250421190250 | 104 | 283 | 3 | 390 | 26.7% | 72.6% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct 0100421190100 | 136 | 227 | 4 | 367 | 37.1% | 61.9% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct 0070421190070 | 18 | 99 | 0 | 117 | 15.4% | 84.6% | R+69.2 |
| Precinct 0205421190205 | 22 | 36 | 0 | 58 | 37.9% | 62.1% | R+24.1 |
| BUFFALO TWP VTD 0142_4211910 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BUFFALO TWP VTD 0242_4211920 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST BUFFALO TWP VTD 0142_4211930 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST BUFFALO TWP VTD 0242_4211940 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST BUFFALO TWP VTD 0342_4211951 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST BUFFALO TWP VTD 0442_4211955 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREGG TWP Voting District42_4211960 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARTLETON Voting District42_4211970 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HARTLEY TWP Voting District42_4211980 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KELLY TWP VTD 0142_4211990 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| KELLY TWP VTD 0242_42119100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWIS TWP Voting District42_42119110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWISBURG WD 0142_42119120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWISBURG WD 0242_42119130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWISBURG WD 0342_42119140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEWISBURG WD 0442_42119150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIMESTONE TWP Voting District42_42119160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MIFFLINBURG VTD EAST42_42119170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MIFFLINBURG VTD WEST42_42119180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NEW BERLIN Voting District42_42119190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP (Union Ind.) PCT 0242_42119200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP PCT 0142_42119205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST BUFFALO TWP Voting District42_42119210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHITE DEER TWP VTD 0142_42119220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHITE DEER TWP VTD 0242_42119230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHITE DEER TWP VTD 0342_42119240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WHITE DEER TWP VTD 0442_42119250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −18.6% |
| 1896 | −35.5% |
| 1900 | −34.0% |
| 1904 | −41.2% |
| 1908 | −36.6% |
| 1912 | +18.9% |
| 1916 | −19.2% |
| 1920 | −46.4% |
| 1924 | −48.2% |
| 1928 | −75.7% |
| 1932 | −27.7% |
| 1936 | −30.7% |
| 1940 | −43.2% |
| 1944 | −52.9% |
| 1948 | −54.9% |
| 1952 | −60.5% |
| 1956 | −56.3% |
| 1960 | −57.8% |
| 1964 | −7.4% |
| 1968 | −46.1% |
| 1972 | −49.3% |
| 1976 | −29.3% |
| 1980 | −40.1% |
| 1984 | −47.7% |
| 1988 | −42.6% |
| 1992 | −22.3% |
| 1996 | −24.8% |
| 2000 | −32.7% |
| 2004 | −28.7% |
| 2008 | −14.5% |
| 2012 | −23.2% |
| 2016 | −25.1% |
| 2020 | −24.3% |
| 2024 | −23.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+25.1
Presidential vote · 2024R+23.4
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.7 points.
26,377 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−317 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −917 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,478 in average income, against $87,548 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+38.1 on average — 15 points more Republican-leaning than Union County, PA itself (R+23.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Northumberland County, PA182R+39.9
- Snyder County, PA104R+47.0
- Lycoming County, PA58R+41.5
- Centre County, PA23D+2.8
- Montour County, PA22R+21.0
- Columbia County, PA20R+31.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Northumberland County, PA235
- Snyder County, PA107
- Lycoming County, PA70
- Columbia County, PA25
- Centre County, PA23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +66 |
| 2012 | +13 |
| 2013 | −528 |
| 2014 | +151 |
| 2015 | +439 |
| 2016 | −121 |
| 2017 | −855 |
| 2018 | +317 |
| 2019 | −76 |
| 2021 | −149 |
| 2022 | +314 |
| 2023 | −608 |
| 2024 | +437 |
| 2025 | −317 |
Union County's small population and agricultural economy anchor a reliably conservative electorate; the Republican presidential candidate has carried it by double digits in every contest since 2000, with the margin expanding notably in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 18.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 75.7 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.9 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.4 points.
A population of 42,456, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,404 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lebanon County and Montour County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Lebanon County
Pennsylvania
78.1twin score
12-yr trend% unaffiliated% Evangelical
Montour County
Pennsylvania
74.3twin score
12-yr trend% Evangelical% unaffiliated≠ college share
York County
Pennsylvania
73.2twin score
12-yr trend% unaffiliated% Evangelical≠ population scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Union County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42119/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Union County
Pennsylvania at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Union County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Union County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 23.4 points (R+23.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 21,188 votes cast, 8,015 went Democratic and 12,969 went Republican.
How many people live in Union County, Pennsylvania?
Union County, Pennsylvania has a population of 42,456 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Union County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Union County, Pennsylvania is $76,404 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Union County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Union County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 33 went Republican.