HarrisDemocratic39.0%3,862TrumpRepublican60.0%5,944OliverLibertarian0.6%58
R+21.0- Lead
- 2,082
- Total
- 9,908
- vs nation
- R+19.5
- Turnout
- 71.3%
Akashiccounty
Montour County, PA
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.3% of 14,000 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic38.6%3,771TrumpRepublican59.8%5,844JorgensenLibertarian1.6%156
R+21.2- Lead
- 2,073
- Total
- 9,771
- vs nation
- R+25.7
- Turnout
- 69.8%
ClintonDemocratic33.4%2,857TrumpRepublican61.8%5,288JohnsonLibertarian3.4%287
R+28.4- Lead
- 2,431
- Total
- 8,556
- vs nation
- R+30.5
- Turnout
- 60.5%
ObamaDemocratic38.8%3,053RomneyRepublican59.2%4,652JohnsonLibertarian1.2%96
R+20.3- Lead
- 1,599
- Total
- 7,859
- vs nation
- R+24.2
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic41.9%3,364McCainRepublican57.0%4,574OtherAll other candidates1.1%85
R+15.1- Lead
- 1,210
- Total
- 8,023
- vs nation
- R+22.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic35.0%2,666BushRepublican64.3%4,903OtherAll other candidates0.7%55
R+29.3- Lead
- 2,237
- Total
- 7,624
- vs nation
- R+26.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic36.3%2,356BushRepublican61.0%3,960NaderGreen2.0%132
R+24.7- Lead
- 1,604
- Total
- 6,495
- vs nation
- R+25.2
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic37.6%2,183DoleRepublican47.9%2,785PerotReform13.5%784
R+10.4- Lead
- 602
- Total
- 5,811
- vs nation
- R+18.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+21.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 18,1032024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,9762024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+42.2 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+43.6 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Clinton County, MI · twin score 79.2
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.3%9,978 participants ÷ 14,000 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +13.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -3.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 57.9%–59.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 8,668 | 14,331 | 60.5% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 7,034 | 14,204 | 49.5% | C/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 9,847 | 14,116 | 69.8% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 7,897 | 14,014 | 56.4% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 9,978 | 14,000 | 71.3% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 150/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
30 precincts · 9,908 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0105420930105 | 890 | 717 | 22 | 1,629 | 54.6% | 44.0% | D+10.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0130420930130 | 487 | 858 | 15 | 1,360 | 35.8% | 63.1% | R+27.3 |
| Precinct 0080420930080 | 297 | 807 | 8 | 1,112 | 26.7% | 72.6% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct 0115420930115 | 411 | 430 | 9 | 850 | 48.4% | 50.6% | R+2.2 |
| Precinct 0010420930010 | 157 | 581 | 9 | 747 | 21.0% | 77.8% | R+56.8 |
| Precinct 0040420930040 | 251 | 353 | 9 | 613 | 40.9% | 57.6% | R+16.6 |
| Precinct 0030420930030 | 331 | 235 | 4 | 570 | 58.1% | 41.2% | D+16.8 |
| Precinct 0020420930020 | 195 | 344 | 5 | 544 | 35.8% | 63.2% | R+27.4 |
| Precinct 0060420930060 | 246 | 276 | 4 | 526 | 46.8% | 52.5% | R+5.7 |
| Precinct 0090420930090 | 109 | 388 | 6 | 503 | 21.7% | 77.1% | R+55.5 |
| Precinct 0070420930070 | 108 | 338 | 3 | 449 | 24.1% | 75.3% | R+51.2 |
| Precinct 0050420930050 | 207 | 225 | 4 | 436 | 47.5% | 51.6% | R+4.1 |
| Precinct 0150420930150 | 93 | 229 | 4 | 326 | 28.5% | 70.2% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct 0120420930120 | 49 | 126 | 0 | 175 | 28.0% | 72.0% | R+44.0 |
| Precinct 0140420930140 | 31 | 37 | 0 | 68 | 45.6% | 54.4% | R+8.8 |
| ANTHONY TWP Voting District42_4209310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| COOPER TWP Voting District42_4209320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DANVILLE VTD 0142_4209330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DANVILLE VTD 0242_4209340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DANVILLE VTD 0342_4209350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DANVILLE VTD 0442_4209360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DERRY TWP Voting District42_4209370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIBERTY TWP Voting District42_4209380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LIMESTONE TWP Voting District42_4209390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP DIST 0142_42093105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAHONING TWP DIST 0242_42093115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MAYBERRY TWP Voting District42_42093120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| VALLEY TWP Voting District42_42093130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WASHINGTONVILLE Voting District42_42093140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST HEMLOCK TWP Voting District42_42093150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +25.0% |
| 1896 | +11.2% |
| 1900 | +18.0% |
| 1904 | −5.4% |
| 1908 | +11.9% |
| 1912 | +42.2% |
| 1916 | +17.3% |
| 1920 | −9.9% |
| 1924 | −15.6% |
| 1928 | −43.6% |
| 1932 | +10.6% |
| 1936 | +20.0% |
| 1940 | +6.1% |
| 1944 | −10.4% |
| 1948 | −15.5% |
| 1952 | −24.4% |
| 1956 | −31.5% |
| 1960 | −22.5% |
| 1964 | +18.6% |
| 1968 | −17.6% |
| 1972 | −41.8% |
| 1976 | −8.8% |
| 1980 | −18.5% |
| 1984 | −33.9% |
| 1988 | −27.8% |
| 1992 | −14.2% |
| 1996 | −10.4% |
| 2000 | −24.7% |
| 2004 | −29.3% |
| 2008 | −15.1% |
| 2012 | −20.3% |
| 2016 | −28.4% |
| 2020 | −21.2% |
| 2024 | −21.0% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 3 House · 38 Senate · 3 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+22.6
Presidential vote · 2024R+21.0
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 1.6 points.
12,337 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−35 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −655 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $66,737 in average income, against $94,953 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+36.7 on average — 16 points more Republican-leaning than Montour County, PA itself (R+21.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Northumberland County, PA149R+39.9
- Columbia County, PA114R+31.0
- Lycoming County, PA33R+41.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Columbia County, PA139
- Northumberland County, PA113
- Lycoming County, PA29
- Union County, PA22
- Snyder County, PA20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −35 |
| 2012 | +27 |
| 2013 | −76 |
| 2014 | +9 |
| 2015 | −152 |
| 2016 | −70 |
| 2017 | +8 |
| 2018 | −74 |
| 2019 | −11 |
| 2021 | +4 |
| 2022 | +5 |
| 2023 | −177 |
| 2024 | −78 |
| 2025 | −35 |
Montour County, anchored by the small city of Danville, has shifted markedly rightward over the past two decades. In 2024 it backed the Republican presidential candidate by 21 points, reflecting broader rural consolidation across central Pennsylvania.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.2 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 43.6 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 21.0 points.
A population of 18,103, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,976 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Clinton County and Sarpy County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Clinton County
Michigan
79.2twin score
12-yr trendcollege share% Evangelical≠ French ancestry
Sarpy County
Nebraska
76.5twin score
college share12-yr trend% Evangelical≠ population scale
Union County
Pennsylvania
74.3twin score
12-yr trend% Evangelical% unaffiliated≠ college share
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Montour County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42093/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Montour County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Montour County, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Montour County, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 21.0 points (R+21.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 9,908 votes cast, 3,862 went Democratic and 5,944 went Republican.
When did Montour County, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Montour County, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Montour County, Pennsylvania?
Montour County, Pennsylvania has a population of 18,103 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Montour County, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Montour County, Pennsylvania is $76,976 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Montour County, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Montour County, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 24 went Republican.