- Lead
- 23,548
- Total
- 73,692
- vs nation
- R+30.5
- Turnout
- 67.8%
Lebanon County, PA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 67.8% of 109,702 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 22,799
- Total
- 71,652
- vs nation
- R+36.3
- Turnout
- 67.9%
- Lead
- 21,572
- Total
- 62,503
- vs nation
- R+36.6
- Turnout
- 60.7%
- Lead
- 15,972
- Total
- 56,777
- vs nation
- R+32.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 11,004
- Total
- 58,297
- vs nation
- R+26.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 18,980
- Total
- 55,665
- vs nation
- R+31.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,441
- Total
- 45,897
- vs nation
- R+27.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,698
- Total
- 40,735
- vs nation
- R+27.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+32.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 144,1862024 5-year
- Median household income
- $78,4252024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 15.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+5.6 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.3 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- York County, PA · twin score 89.5
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 67.8%74,397 participants ÷ 109,702 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +16.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -0.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.8%–53.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 62,665 | 103,191 | 60.7% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 49,548 | 104,657 | 47.3% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 72,326 | 106,457 | 67.9% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 56,609 | 108,991 | 51.9% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 74,397 | 109,702 | 67.8% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
115 precincts · 73,692 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0360420750360 | 767 | 1,817 | 15 | 2,599 | 29.5% | 69.9% | R+40.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0375420750375 | 1,045 | 1,510 | 26 | 2,581 | 40.5% | 58.5% | R+18.0 |
| Precinct 0440420750440 | 724 | 1,551 | 31 | 2,306 | 31.4% | 67.3% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct 0488420750488 | 1,001 | 1,222 | 23 | 2,246 | 44.6% | 54.4% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct 0370420750370 | 592 | 1,565 | 22 | 2,179 | 27.2% | 71.8% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct 0460420750460 | 747 | 1,344 | 21 | 2,112 | 35.4% | 63.6% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct 0391420750391 | 901 | 1,153 | 14 | 2,068 | 43.6% | 55.8% | R+12.2 |
| Precinct 0340420750340 | 796 | 1,251 | 18 | 2,065 | 38.5% | 60.6% | R+22.0 |
| Precinct 0030420750030 | 438 | 1,608 | 10 | 2,056 | 21.3% | 78.2% | R+56.9 |
| Precinct 0108420750108 | 644 | 1,382 | 15 | 2,041 | 31.6% | 67.7% | R+36.2 |
| Precinct 0280420750280 | 453 | 1,540 | 14 | 2,007 | 22.6% | 76.7% | R+54.2 |
| Precinct 0062420750062 | 763 | 1,180 | 14 | 1,957 | 39.0% | 60.3% | R+21.3 |
| Precinct 0492420750492 | 690 | 1,238 | 17 | 1,945 | 35.5% | 63.7% | R+28.2 |
| Precinct 0350420750350 | 637 | 1,261 | 21 | 1,919 | 33.2% | 65.7% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct 0450420750450 | 636 | 1,166 | 27 | 1,829 | 34.8% | 63.8% | R+29.0 |
| Precinct 0470420750470 | 697 | 1,102 | 24 | 1,823 | 38.2% | 60.4% | R+22.2 |
| Precinct 0070420750070 | 333 | 1,349 | 9 | 1,691 | 19.7% | 79.8% | R+60.1 |
| Precinct 0064420750064 | 738 | 885 | 12 | 1,635 | 45.1% | 54.1% | R+9.0 |
| Precinct 0112420750112 | 356 | 1,247 | 12 | 1,615 | 22.0% | 77.2% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct 0504420750504 | 359 | 1,232 | 7 | 1,598 | 22.5% | 77.1% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct 0410420750410 | 579 | 944 | 15 | 1,538 | 37.6% | 61.4% | R+23.7 |
| Precinct 0530420750530 | 552 | 933 | 14 | 1,499 | 36.8% | 62.2% | R+25.4 |
| Precinct 0400420750400 | 538 | 830 | 23 | 1,391 | 38.7% | 59.7% | R+21.0 |
| Precinct 0090420750090 | 377 | 989 | 17 | 1,383 | 27.3% | 71.5% | R+44.3 |
| Precinct 0320420750320 | 270 | 1,085 | 14 | 1,369 | 19.7% | 79.3% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct 0520420750520 | 266 | 1,048 | 8 | 1,322 | 20.1% | 79.3% | R+59.2 |
| Precinct 0380420750380 | 371 | 918 | 11 | 1,300 | 28.5% | 70.6% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct 0420420750420 | 471 | 780 | 12 | 1,263 | 37.3% | 61.8% | R+24.5 |
| Precinct 0334420750334 | 480 | 747 | 14 | 1,241 | 38.7% | 60.2% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct 0010420750010 | 570 | 655 | 9 | 1,234 | 46.2% | 53.1% | R+6.9 |
| Precinct 0050420750050 | 401 | 800 | 13 | 1,214 | 33.0% | 65.9% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct 0332420750332 | 441 | 731 | 16 | 1,188 | 37.1% | 61.5% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct 0170420750170 | 488 | 652 | 12 | 1,152 | 42.4% | 56.6% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct 0502420750502 | 242 | 873 | 12 | 1,127 | 21.5% | 77.5% | R+56.0 |
| Precinct 0494420750494 | 344 | 727 | 17 | 1,088 | 31.6% | 66.8% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct 0100420750100 | 258 | 771 | 11 | 1,040 | 24.8% | 74.1% | R+49.3 |
| Precinct 0270420750270 | 371 | 593 | 7 | 971 | 38.2% | 61.1% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct 0160420750160 | 391 | 513 | 13 | 917 | 42.6% | 55.9% | R+13.3 |
| Precinct 0120420750120 | 224 | 617 | 5 | 846 | 26.5% | 72.9% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct 0430420750430 | 181 | 633 | 6 | 820 | 22.1% | 77.2% | R+55.1 |
| Precinct 0020420750020 | 286 | 516 | 10 | 812 | 35.2% | 63.5% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct 0250420750250 | 320 | 460 | 12 | 792 | 40.4% | 58.1% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct 0300420750300 | 191 | 593 | 8 | 792 | 24.1% | 74.9% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct 0260420750260 | 311 | 394 | 9 | 714 | 43.6% | 55.2% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct 0310420750310 | 150 | 463 | 7 | 620 | 24.2% | 74.7% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct 0240420750240 | 287 | 265 | 8 | 560 | 51.2% | 47.3% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct 0040420750040 | 93 | 461 | 1 | 555 | 16.8% | 83.1% | R+66.3 |
| Precinct 0130420750130 | 224 | 275 | 1 | 500 | 44.8% | 55.0% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct 0080420750080 | 80 | 369 | 0 | 449 | 17.8% | 82.2% | R+64.4 |
| Precinct 0200420750200 | 214 | 226 | 1 | 441 | 48.5% | 51.2% | R+2.7 |
| Precinct 0510420750510 | 46 | 366 | 1 | 413 | 11.1% | 88.6% | R+77.5 |
| Precinct 0150420750150 | 176 | 232 | 2 | 410 | 42.9% | 56.6% | R+13.7 |
| Precinct 0210420750210 | 207 | 188 | 1 | 396 | 52.3% | 47.5% | D+4.8 |
| Precinct 0540420750540 | 144 | 238 | 2 | 384 | 37.5% | 62.0% | R+24.5 |
| Precinct 0140420750140 | 148 | 220 | 6 | 374 | 39.6% | 58.8% | R+19.3 |
| Precinct 0220420750220 | 209 | 140 | 3 | 352 | 59.4% | 39.8% | D+19.6 |
| Precinct 0190420750190 | 162 | 155 | 0 | 317 | 51.1% | 48.9% | D+2.2 |
| Precinct 0180420750180 | 114 | 135 | 0 | 249 | 45.8% | 54.2% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct 0230420750230 | 111 | 100 | 1 | 212 | 52.4% | 47.2% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct 0290420750290 | 129 | 44 | 2 | 175 | 73.7% | 25.1% | D+48.6 |
| ANNVILLE TWP VTD EAST42_4207510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ANNVILLE TWP VTD WEST42_4207520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BETHEL TWP VTD FRED42_4207530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| BETHEL TWP VTD MT. ZION42_4207540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CLEONA Voting District42_4207550 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| CORNWALL Voting District42_4207560 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| EAST HANOVER TWP Voting District42_4207570 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HEIDELBERG TWP VTD KLEIN42_4207580 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| HEIDELBERG TWP VTD SCH.42_4207590 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON TWP VTD EAST42_42075100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JACKSON TWP VTD WEST42_42075110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| JONESTOWN Voting District42_42075120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 01 ED EAST42_42075130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 01 ED MIDDLE42_42075140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 01 ED WEST42_42075150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 02 ED EAST42_42075160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 02 ED WEST42_42075170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0342_42075180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0442_42075190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 05 ED EAST42_42075200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 05 ED MIDDLE42_42075210 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 05 ED WEST42_42075220 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0642_42075230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0742_42075240 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0842_42075250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 0942_42075260 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEBANON WD 1042_42075270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MILLCREEK TWP Voting District42_42075280 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MT. GRETNA Voting District42_42075290 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MYERSTOWN VTD NORTH42_42075300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MYERSTOWN VTD SOUTH42_42075310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH ANNVILLE TWP Voting District42_42075320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH CORNWALL TWP VTD NORTH42_42075330 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH CORNWALL TWP VTD SOUTH42_42075340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LEBANON TWP VTD EAST42_42075350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LEBANON TWP VTD MIDDLE42_42075360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LEBANON TWP VTD WEST42_42075370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LONDONDERRY TWP VTD EAST42_42075375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LONDONDERRY TWP VTD NORTH42_42075380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| NORTH LONDONDERRY TWP VTD WEST42_42075391 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMYRA VTD EAST42_42075400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMYRA VTD NORTH42_42075410 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMYRA VTD WEST42_42075420 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| RICHLAND Voting District42_42075430 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH ANNVILLE TWP Voting District42_42075440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH LEBANON TWP VTD NORTH42_42075450 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH LEBANON TWP VTD SOUTH42_42075460 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH LEBANON TWP VTD WEST42_42075470 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH LONDONDERRY TWP VTD CAMPBELLTOWN42_42075480 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SOUTH LONDONDERRY TWP VTD LAWN42_42075490 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SWATARA TWP Voting District42_42075500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP VTD GREEN PT.42_42075510 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| UNION TWP VTD LICKDALE42_42075520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST CORNWALL TWP Voting District42_42075530 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WEST LEBANON TWP Voting District42_42075540 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −21.8% |
| 1896 | −43.3% |
| 1900 | −38.0% |
| 1904 | −45.4% |
| 1908 | −39.2% |
| 1912 | +5.6% |
| 1916 | −20.1% |
| 1920 | −46.5% |
| 1924 | −55.0% |
| 1928 | −66.3% |
| 1932 | −25.7% |
| 1936 | +2.1% |
| 1940 | −0.5% |
| 1944 | −12.5% |
| 1948 | −24.3% |
| 1952 | −28.1% |
| 1956 | −36.8% |
| 1960 | −36.8% |
| 1964 | −5.9% |
| 1968 | −36.2% |
| 1972 | −56.7% |
| 1976 | −27.3% |
| 1980 | −45.7% |
| 1984 | −43.7% |
| 1988 | −34.2% |
| 1992 | −21.3% |
| 1996 | −18.9% |
| 2000 | −27.1% |
| 2004 | −34.1% |
| 2008 | −18.9% |
| 2012 | −28.1% |
| 2016 | −34.5% |
| 2020 | −31.8% |
| 2024 | −32.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.9 points.
93,868 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+870 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +4,267 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,320 in average income, against $79,379 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+4.0 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Lebanon County, PA itself (R+32.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Dauphin County, PA536D+5.9
- Lancaster County, PA506R+16.0
- Berks County, PA326R+12.2
- Cumberland County, PA92R+9.4
- York County, PA86R+25.3
- Schuylkill County, PA77R+42.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Dauphin County, PA522
- Lancaster County, PA435
- Berks County, PA270
- Schuylkill County, PA128
- Cumberland County, PA104
- York County, PA96
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +161 |
| 2012 | +300 |
| 2013 | −550 |
| 2014 | −96 |
| 2015 | +192 |
| 2016 | +258 |
| 2017 | +425 |
| 2018 | +853 |
| 2019 | +260 |
| 2021 | +686 |
| 2022 | +308 |
| 2023 | +257 |
| 2024 | +343 |
| 2025 | +870 |
Lebanon County's mix of small-city manufacturing heritage and surrounding agricultural townships has produced Republican presidential margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, making it an outlier even within a competitive swing state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 5.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 66.3 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 32.0 points.
A population of 144,186, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,425 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of York County and Adams County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Lebanon County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42075/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.