Akashic
1892–2024
Akashic
Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York
presidential margin
2008R+12.92012R+19.42016R+23.82020R+19.92024R+20.4
full record · 1892 → 2024
R+20.4
2024
median income$82,708U.S. $80,734 · PA $77,971
median age40.6U.S. 39.1 · PA 41.2
poverty rate9.1%U.S. 12.5% · PA 11.7%
bachelor’s+ (25+)30.3%U.S. 35.6% · PA 35.2%
non-english11.9%U.S. 22.3% · PA 12.4%
race · ethnicity · ancestry
German29.6%
Irish11.3%
English8.8%
Puerto Rican5.0%
Mexican1.5%
Dominican1.2%
African American†4.4%
African0.3%
Asian Indian0.7%
Chinese0.3%
Vietnamese0.3%
religion
other traditions
Mainline12.3%
Other Christian1.1%
Black Protestant0.8%
Latter-day Saints0.6%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents, unaffiliated is the unclaimed remainder.

Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania

Akashic
Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-YorkTrumpR+20.4
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PAA map of the constituent counties of Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), seated within the faint outlines of the surrounding states.Juniata County, PA · R+61.4Lebanon County, PA · R+32.0Lancaster County, PA · R+16.0Dauphin County, PA · D+5.9York County, PA · R+25.3Mifflin County, PA · R+56.4Adams County, PA · R+33.6Perry County, PA · R+49.3Cumberland County, PA · R+9.4Franklin County, PA · R+43.0
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican59.7%664,998
Kamala HarrisDemocratic39.3%438,156
Jill SteinGreen1.0%11,361
D+60
R+60
10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
County-level results (10 counties) — table
2024 presidential result by county for Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA — winner and D-vs-R margin.
CountyWinnerMargin
Adams County, PARepublicanR+33.6
Cumberland County, PARepublicanR+9.4
Dauphin County, PADemocraticD+5.9
Franklin County, PARepublicanR+43.0
Juniata County, PARepublicanR+61.4
Lancaster County, PARepublicanR+16.0
Lebanon County, PARepublicanR+32.0
Mifflin County, PARepublicanR+56.4
Perry County, PARepublicanR+49.3
York County, PARepublicanR+25.3
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonDemocraticRepublicanOtherMarginTotal
R
39.3%Harris438,156
59.7%Trump664,998
1.0%Stein11,361
−20.4%
1,114,515
R
39.3%Biden422,556
59.2%Trump636,673
1.5%Jorgensen15,616
−19.9%
1,074,845
R
35.4%Clinton332,375
59.2%Trump556,080
5.5%Johnson51,311
−23.8%
939,766
R
39.4%Obama337,495
58.8%Romney504,052
1.8%Johnson15,249
−19.4%
856,796
R
43.0%Obama377,657
55.9%McCain490,853
1.0%Nader9,057
−12.9%
877,567
R
35.3%Kerry292,800
64.1%Bush532,747
0.6%Badnarik5,081
−28.9%
830,628
R
35.1%Gore237,016
62.2%Bush420,788
2.7%Nader18,371
−27.2%
676,175
R
36.5%Clinton221,176
54.1%Dole328,210
9.4%Perot57,202
−17.6%
606,588
R
31.8%Clinton200,992
49.6%Bush314,105
18.6%Perot117,602
−17.9%
632,699
R
33.5%Dukakis180,478
65.7%Bush354,343
0.8%McCarthy4,163
−32.3%
538,984
R
29.9%Mondale160,400
69.5%Reagan372,289
0.6%Johnson3,281
−39.5%
535,970
R
30.3%Carter149,684
62.1%Reagan306,929
7.6%Anderson37,754
−31.8%
494,367
R
38.1%Carter183,283
59.9%Ford287,952
2.0%McCarthy9,453
−21.8%
480,688
R
26.2%McGovern119,114
71.8%Nixon326,225
1.9%Schmitz8,757
−45.6%
454,096
R
31.1%Humphrey142,064
59.9%Nixon273,994
9.1%Wallace41,428
−28.8%
457,486
D
54.5%Johnson249,945
45.1%Goldwater206,813
0.4%Hass1,768
+9.4%
458,526
R
34.2%Kennedy164,915
65.5%Nixon315,396
0.3%Byrd1,518
−31.2%
481,829
R
34.2%Stevenson147,338
65.6%Eisenhower282,346
0.2%Andrews1,008
−31.3%
430,692
R
36.3%Stevenson149,207
63.4%Eisenhower260,801
0.3%Hallinan1,437
−27.1%
411,445
R
38.7%Truman125,615
59.6%Dewey193,612
1.7%Thurmond5,467
−20.9%
324,694
R
43.0%Roosevelt146,461
56.6%Dewey192,824
0.5%Thomas1,585
−13.6%
340,870
R
48.6%Roosevelt174,371
51.2%Willkie183,736
0.3%Thomas999
−2.6%
359,106
D
52.6%Roosevelt202,613
46.0%Landon177,359
1.4%Lemke5,488
+6.6%
385,460
R
43.2%Roosevelt120,856
53.5%Hoover149,550
3.3%Thomas9,239
−10.3%
279,645
R
18.3%Smith52,602
80.9%Hoover232,238
0.8%Thomas2,341
−62.6%
287,181
R
29.2%Davis63,541
64.3%Coolidge140,070
6.5%La Follette14,095
−35.2%
217,706
R
32.9%Cox60,407
63.3%Harding116,349
3.9%Debs7,114
−30.4%
183,870
R
44.1%Wilson63,175
50.7%Hughes72,592
5.3%Benson7,523
−6.6%
143,290
O
36.0%Wilson51,694
24.1%Taft34,572
39.9%Roosevelt57,196
Roosevelt +3.8
143,462
R
36.9%Bryan53,200
59.2%Taft85,464
3.9%Debs5,656
−22.4%
144,320
R
32.1%Parker45,215
64.7%Roosevelt91,055
3.2%Debs4,552
−32.6%
140,822
R
38.3%Bryan52,407
59.1%McKinley80,906
2.6%Woolley3,573
−20.8%
136,886
R
36.4%Bryan50,391
60.7%McKinley83,988
2.9%Palmer4,079
−24.3%
138,458
R
44.1%Cleveland54,633
53.4%Harrison66,136
2.5%Weaver3,121
−9.3%
123,890
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1892 to 2024. Most recent: −20.4% in 2024.flipped R · 1968−20.4%DR18922024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1892−9.3%
1896−24.3%
1900−20.8%
1904−32.6%
1908−22.4%
1912+11.9%
1916−6.6%
1920−30.4%
1924−35.2%
1928−62.6%
1932−10.3%
1936+6.6%
1940−2.6%
1944−13.6%
1948−20.9%
1952−27.1%
1956−31.3%
1960−31.2%
1964+9.4%
1968−28.8%
1972−45.6%
1976−21.8%
1980−31.8%
1984−39.5%
1988−32.3%
1992−17.9%
1996−17.6%
2000−27.2%
2004−28.9%
2008−12.9%
2012−19.4%
2016−23.8%
2020−19.9%
2024−20.4%
DemocraticRepublican

Stretching across south-central Pennsylvania's mix of mid-sized cities and deep-rural townships, this market has historically leaned Republican but seen competitive tightening as Lancaster and York suburbs diversify and commuter populations grow.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 62.6 points in 1928. The 2024 margin was 20.4 points.

A population of 2,102,110, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,708 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney and Harrisonburg.

Political twins — media markets

The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Lincoln & Hastings-Kearney
Nebraska
62.4twin score
2000–2004 trajectoryelasticity12-yr trend≠ Puerto Rican ancestry
Harrisonburg
Virginia
60.5twin score
2000–2004 trajectory12-yr trendelasticity≠ population scale
Fort Wayne
Indiana
59.2twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ elasticity

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/566/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Places within Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York

counties10
Adams CountyCumberland CountyDauphin CountyFranklin CountyJuniata CountyLancaster CountyLebanon CountyMifflin CountyPerry CountyYork County

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 20.4 points (R+20.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,114,515 votes cast, 438,156 went Democratic and 664,998 went Republican.
When did Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania has a population of 2,102,110 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania is $82,708 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pennsylvania from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican.