HarrisDemocratic38.9%22,085TrumpRepublican60.8%34,528SteinIndependent0.1%59
R+21.9- Lead
- 12,443
- Total
- 56,751
- vs nation
- R+20.5
- Turnout
- 58.7%
Akashiccounty
Chautauqua County, NY
Office (updates table and map)
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.7% of 98,259 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic39.0%23,088TrumpRepublican58.9%34,853JorgensenLibertarian1.3%756
R+19.9- Lead
- 11,765
- Total
- 59,196
- vs nation
- R+24.3
- Turnout
- 59.2%
ClintonDemocratic35.2%19,091TrumpRepublican58.3%31,594JohnsonLibertarian4.1%2,203
R+23.1- Lead
- 12,503
- Total
- 54,234
- vs nation
- R+25.1
- Turnout
- 53.6%
ObamaDemocratic45.1%23,812RomneyRepublican52.9%27,971JohnsonLibertarian1.0%504
R+7.9- Lead
- 4,159
- Total
- 52,852
- vs nation
- R+11.7
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic49.5%29,129McCainRepublican48.6%28,579OtherAll other candidates1.9%1,094
D+0.9- Lead
- 550
- Total
- 58,802
- vs nation
- R+6.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.7%27,257BushRepublican53.2%32,434OtherAll other candidates2.1%1,253
R+8.5- Lead
- 5,177
- Total
- 60,944
- vs nation
- R+6.0
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.0%27,016BushRepublican49.5%29,064NaderGreen3.2%1,888
R+3.5- Lead
- 2,048
- Total
- 58,722
- vs nation
- R+4.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic47.7%26,831DoleRepublican37.8%21,261PerotReform13.3%7,484
D+9.9- Lead
- 5,570
- Total
- 56,290
- vs nation
- D+1.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+21.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 125,5442024 5-year
- Median household income
- $58,3512024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 83.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 9.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+38.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.9 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Bureau County, IL · twin score 84.7
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 58.7%57,683 participants ÷ 98,259 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- -6.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 43.2%–46.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 55,093 | 102,881 | 53.6% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 45,103 | 101,418 | 44.5% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 59,304 | 100,188 | 59.2% | C/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 43,859 | 100,294 | 43.7% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 57,683 | 98,259 | 58.7% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
90 precincts · 57,046 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 2500001360132500001 | 521 | 973 | 8 | 1,502 | 34.7% | 64.8% | R+30.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0200004360130200004 | 413 | 975 | 9 | 1,397 | 29.6% | 69.8% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct 1500002360131500002 | 498 | 856 | 8 | 1,362 | 36.6% | 62.8% | R+26.3 |
| Precinct 1000003360131000003 | 538 | 761 | 15 | 1,314 | 40.9% | 57.9% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct 1702002360131702002 | 680 | 619 | 12 | 1,311 | 51.9% | 47.2% | D+4.7 |
| Precinct 2000001360132000001 | 440 | 841 | 8 | 1,289 | 34.1% | 65.2% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct 1701002360131701002 | 535 | 645 | 11 | 1,191 | 44.9% | 54.2% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct 1500001360131500001 | 477 | 679 | 10 | 1,166 | 40.9% | 58.2% | R+17.3 |
| Precinct 2300001360132300001 | 407 | 730 | 12 | 1,149 | 35.4% | 63.5% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct 0200001360130200001 | 432 | 676 | 8 | 1,116 | 38.7% | 60.6% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct 2200003360132200003 | 629 | 446 | 10 | 1,085 | 58.0% | 41.1% | D+16.9 |
| Precinct 2200005360132200005 | 405 | 668 | 12 | 1,085 | 37.3% | 61.6% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct 2400001360132400001 | 308 | 761 | 7 | 1,076 | 28.6% | 70.7% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct 2200004360132200004 | 620 | 336 | 10 | 966 | 64.2% | 34.8% | D+29.4 |
| Precinct 1400001360131400001 | 230 | 696 | 7 | 933 | 24.7% | 74.6% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct 2900003360132900003 | 322 | 580 | 9 | 911 | 35.3% | 63.7% | R+28.3 |
| Precinct 0300001360130300001 | 230 | 672 | 8 | 910 | 25.3% | 73.8% | R+48.6 |
| Precinct 2200001360132200001 | 465 | 437 | 7 | 909 | 51.2% | 48.1% | D+3.1 |
| Precinct 0500002360130500002 | 364 | 530 | 6 | 900 | 40.4% | 58.9% | R+18.4 |
| Precinct 0300002360130300002 | 201 | 692 | 6 | 899 | 22.4% | 77.0% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct 1000001360131000001 | 223 | 670 | 6 | 899 | 24.8% | 74.5% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct 2200002360132200002 | 469 | 396 | 7 | 872 | 53.8% | 45.4% | D+8.4 |
| Precinct 2100002360132100002 | 198 | 668 | 5 | 871 | 22.7% | 76.7% | R+54.0 |
| Precinct 0801002360130801002 | 449 | 417 | 3 | 869 | 51.7% | 48.0% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct 0802002360130802002 | 442 | 409 | 2 | 853 | 51.8% | 47.9% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct 1705002360131705002 | 409 | 423 | 9 | 841 | 48.6% | 50.3% | R+1.7 |
| Precinct 1704002360131704002 | 394 | 427 | 3 | 824 | 47.8% | 51.8% | R+4.0 |
| Precinct 1800001360131800001 | 268 | 552 | 3 | 823 | 32.6% | 67.1% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct 0400001360130400001 | 214 | 587 | 12 | 813 | 26.3% | 72.2% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct 1600001360131600001 | 208 | 584 | 5 | 797 | 26.1% | 73.3% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct 2900001360132900001 | 362 | 428 | 7 | 797 | 45.4% | 53.7% | R+8.3 |
| Precinct 0200003360130200003 | 361 | 414 | 8 | 783 | 46.1% | 52.9% | R+6.8 |
| Precinct 2900002360132900002 | 315 | 454 | 5 | 774 | 40.7% | 58.7% | R+18.0 |
| Precinct 1703001360131703001 | 364 | 400 | 6 | 770 | 47.3% | 51.9% | R+4.7 |
| Precinct 1704001360131704001 | 383 | 380 | 5 | 768 | 49.9% | 49.5% | D+0.4 |
| Precinct 0200002360130200002 | 317 | 432 | 8 | 757 | 41.9% | 57.1% | R+15.2 |
| Precinct 1104003360131104003 | 218 | 515 | 5 | 738 | 29.5% | 69.8% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct 1200001360131200001 | 144 | 586 | 6 | 736 | 19.6% | 79.6% | R+60.1 |
| Precinct 0500001360130500001 | 315 | 395 | 8 | 718 | 43.9% | 55.0% | R+11.1 |
| Precinct 2200006360132200006 | 310 | 389 | 5 | 704 | 44.0% | 55.3% | R+11.2 |
| Precinct 1500003360131500003 | 193 | 477 | 5 | 675 | 28.6% | 70.7% | R+42.1 |
| Precinct 2700001360132700001 | 143 | 517 | 3 | 663 | 21.6% | 78.0% | R+56.4 |
| Precinct 1102001360131102001 | 286 | 342 | 5 | 633 | 45.2% | 54.0% | R+8.8 |
| Precinct 0700001360130700001 | 113 | 504 | 7 | 624 | 18.1% | 80.8% | R+62.7 |
| Precinct 1705003360131705003 | 259 | 356 | 8 | 623 | 41.6% | 57.1% | R+15.6 |
| Precinct 0100001360130100001 | 197 | 418 | 5 | 620 | 31.8% | 67.4% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct 2600001360132600001 | 165 | 445 | 3 | 613 | 26.9% | 72.6% | R+45.7 |
| Precinct 1706001360131706001 | 290 | 298 | 5 | 593 | 48.9% | 50.3% | R+1.3 |
| Precinct 0804002360130804002 | 261 | 323 | 6 | 590 | 44.2% | 54.7% | R+10.5 |
| Precinct 1704003360131704003 | 262 | 328 | 0 | 590 | 44.4% | 55.6% | R+11.2 |
| Precinct 2300002360132300002 | 229 | 350 | 4 | 583 | 39.3% | 60.0% | R+20.8 |
| Precinct 1103001360131103001 | 215 | 354 | 9 | 578 | 37.2% | 61.2% | R+24.0 |
| Precinct 1706002360131706002 | 243 | 317 | 4 | 564 | 43.1% | 56.2% | R+13.1 |
| Precinct 1900001360131900001 | 175 | 382 | 1 | 558 | 31.4% | 68.5% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct 0803003360130803003 | 263 | 281 | 0 | 544 | 48.3% | 51.7% | R+3.3 |
| Precinct 2800001360132800001 | 141 | 389 | 2 | 532 | 26.5% | 73.1% | R+46.6 |
| Precinct 1300001360131300001 | 107 | 392 | 5 | 504 | 21.2% | 77.8% | R+56.5 |
| Precinct 1706003360131706003 | 214 | 283 | 3 | 500 | 42.8% | 56.6% | R+13.8 |
| Precinct 0600001360130600001 | 113 | 365 | 4 | 482 | 23.4% | 75.7% | R+52.3 |
| Precinct 1101002360131101002 | 206 | 251 | 5 | 462 | 44.6% | 54.3% | R+9.7 |
| Precinct 1103002360131103002 | 130 | 322 | 8 | 460 | 28.3% | 70.0% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct 1101001360131101001 | 183 | 251 | 5 | 439 | 41.7% | 57.2% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct 2700002360132700002 | 168 | 251 | 0 | 419 | 40.1% | 59.9% | R+19.8 |
| Precinct 1104001360131104001 | 128 | 284 | 4 | 416 | 30.8% | 68.3% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct 0500003360130500003 | 122 | 258 | 3 | 383 | 31.9% | 67.4% | R+35.5 |
| Precinct 0802001360130802001 | 188 | 186 | 1 | 375 | 50.1% | 49.6% | D+0.5 |
| Precinct 1701001360131701001 | 151 | 205 | 2 | 358 | 42.2% | 57.3% | R+15.1 |
| Precinct 0802003360130802003 | 150 | 188 | 2 | 340 | 44.1% | 55.3% | R+11.2 |
| Precinct 0900002360130900002 | 166 | 150 | 0 | 316 | 52.5% | 47.5% | D+5.1 |
| Precinct 1702001360131702001 | 149 | 145 | 0 | 294 | 50.7% | 49.3% | D+1.4 |
| Precinct 0900001360130900001 | 122 | 164 | 2 | 288 | 42.4% | 56.9% | R+14.6 |
| Precinct 0804001360130804001 | 151 | 128 | 1 | 280 | 53.9% | 45.7% | D+8.2 |
| Precinct 1102004360131102004 | 100 | 173 | 1 | 274 | 36.5% | 63.1% | R+26.6 |
| Precinct 1703003360131703003 | 98 | 145 | 1 | 244 | 40.2% | 59.4% | R+19.3 |
| Precinct 1600002360131600002 | 75 | 160 | 1 | 236 | 31.8% | 67.8% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct 2100001360132100001 | 60 | 175 | 1 | 236 | 25.4% | 74.2% | R+48.7 |
| Precinct 1500004360131500004 | 77 | 145 | 0 | 222 | 34.7% | 65.3% | R+30.6 |
| Precinct 1102002360131102002 | 87 | 116 | 1 | 204 | 42.6% | 56.9% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct 1705001360131705001 | 100 | 91 | 2 | 193 | 51.8% | 47.2% | D+4.7 |
| Precinct 1000002360131000002 | 78 | 106 | 4 | 188 | 41.5% | 56.4% | R+14.9 |
| Precinct 0803002360130803002 | 87 | 76 | 2 | 165 | 52.7% | 46.1% | D+6.7 |
| Precinct 0801001360130801001 | 96 | 65 | 1 | 162 | 59.3% | 40.1% | D+19.1 |
| Precinct 0803004360130803004 | 69 | 74 | 0 | 143 | 48.3% | 51.7% | R+3.5 |
| Precinct 0500004360130500004 | 64 | 62 | 1 | 127 | 50.4% | 48.8% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct 1102003360131102003 | 29 | 60 | 1 | 90 | 32.2% | 66.7% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct 1703002360131703002 | 50 | 35 | 1 | 86 | 58.1% | 40.7% | D+17.4 |
| Precinct 0803001360130803001 | 27 | 16 | 1 | 44 | 61.4% | 36.4% | D+25.0 |
| Precinct 1706004360131706004 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 29 | 48.3% | 51.7% | R+3.4 |
| Precinct 1104002360131104002 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 50.0% | 38.9% | D+11.1 |
| Precinct 1703004360131703004 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Exact tie |
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −26.2% |
| 1896 | −36.0% |
| 1900 | −38.2% |
| 1904 | −46.5% |
| 1908 | −39.9% |
| 1912 | −13.5% |
| 1916 | −32.1% |
| 1920 | −54.0% |
| 1924 | −57.9% |
| 1928 | −47.5% |
| 1932 | −27.0% |
| 1936 | −13.0% |
| 1940 | −24.4% |
| 1944 | −19.5% |
| 1948 | −17.8% |
| 1952 | −28.4% |
| 1956 | −37.1% |
| 1960 | −14.7% |
| 1964 | +38.4% |
| 1968 | −3.6% |
| 1972 | −17.2% |
| 1976 | −10.2% |
| 1980 | −12.3% |
| 1984 | −26.5% |
| 1988 | −10.1% |
| 1992 | +2.3% |
| 1996 | +9.9% |
| 2000 | −3.5% |
| 2004 | −8.5% |
| 2008 | +0.9% |
| 2012 | −7.9% |
| 2016 | −23.1% |
| 2020 | −19.9% |
| 2024 | −21.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
Federal and statewide elections · 1 House · 28 Senate · 2 Senate special · 12 governor
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 35.3%17,691 | 64.7%32,460 | 50,151 |
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+7.7
Presidential vote · 2024R+21.9
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 14 points more Democratic.
84,991 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−332 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −10,251 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $53,580 in average income, against $63,465 for residents who stayed — 16% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+6.3 on average — 16 points more Democratic-leaning than Chautauqua County, NY itself (R+21.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Erie County, NY347D+9.6
- Cattaraugus County, NY163R+32.7
- Erie County, PA140R+1.0
- Warren County, PA76R+39.2
- Monroe County, NY31D+19.0
- Niagara County, NY29R+14.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Erie County, NY345
- Erie County, PA144
- Cattaraugus County, NY136
- Warren County, PA60
- Monroe County, NY44
- Niagara County, NY33
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −570 |
| 2012 | −1,108 |
| 2013 | −614 |
| 2014 | −1,418 |
| 2015 | −1,351 |
| 2016 | −1,484 |
| 2017 | −821 |
| 2018 | −945 |
| 2019 | −471 |
| 2021 | −425 |
| 2022 | −358 |
| 2023 | −166 |
| 2024 | −188 |
| 2025 | −332 |
Chautauqua County's manufacturing decline and rural demographic weight have driven a decades-long realignment: a county that backed Bill Clinton twice now delivers Republican presidential margins above 20 points.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 38.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 57.9 points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.9 points.
A population of 125,544, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,351 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bureau County and Gogebic County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Bureau County
Illinois
84.7twin score
2000–2008 trajectory% unaffiliated≠ Swedish ancestry
Gogebic County
Michigan
84.0twin score
Swedish ancestryItalian ancestryPolish ancestry≠ median age
Iron County
Michigan
83.6twin score
Swedish ancestryItalian ancestry2008 margin≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Chautauqua County, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/36013/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Chautauqua County
New York at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Chautauqua County, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Chautauqua County, New York voted Republican by 21.9 points (R+21.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 56,751 votes cast, 22,085 went Democratic and 34,528 went Republican.
When did Chautauqua County, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Chautauqua County, New York voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Chautauqua County, New York?
Chautauqua County, New York has a population of 125,544 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Chautauqua County, New York?
Median household income in Chautauqua County, New York is $58,351 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Chautauqua County, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Chautauqua County, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 29 went Republican.