AkashicPennsylvania — Governor
We expect Democrats to win96%The call
We expect Democrats to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Democrats a 95% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Democrats.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate |
|---|
| Josh ShapiroDIncumbentNominee |
| Stacy GarrityRNominee |
Declared candidates. Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is seeking a second term and won the Democratic primary unopposed. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity won the Republican primary unopposed and would be Pennsylvania's first female governor. Minor-party general-election names (e.g., Libertarian) were not confirmed against an authoritative source and are omitted. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the PA state page.
| Year | Elected | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Joshua D ShapiroD | D+15 |
| 2018 | Thomas W WolfD | D+17 |
| 2014 | Tom WolfD | D+10 |
| 2010 | Tom CorbettR | R+9 |
| 2006 | Ed RendellD | D+21 |
| 2002 | Ed RendellD |
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchR | Mar 18–29 | 700 LV | Shapiro 58·Garrity 36 | D+22 |
Recent public polls of this race, most recent first — individual polls, not an average (public polling is too sparse this far out for a clean one). Internal and partisan-sponsored polls are flagged. Polls via VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) and pollsters’ own releases; each row links to the pollster’s release.
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All Governors races →