- Lead
- 8,405
- Total
- 34,950
- vs nation
- R+22.6
- Turnout
- 71.5%
Pike County, PA
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 71.5% of 49,112 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 6,194
- Total
- 32,554
- vs nation
- R+23.5
- Turnout
- 73.0%
- Lead
- 6,793
- Total
- 26,303
- vs nation
- R+27.9
- Turnout
- 60.9%
- Lead
- 2,576
- Total
- 23,279
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,025
- Total
- 24,284
- vs nation
- R+11.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,788
- Total
- 21,299
- vs nation
- R+15.3
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,009
- Total
- 17,364
- vs nation
- R+12.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,188
- Total
- 14,244
- vs nation
- R+16.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+24.0MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 60,6212024 5-year
- Median household income
- $81,3232024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 76.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+48.3 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+54.6 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Greene County, NY · twin score 91.3
Midterm durability
Total general-election participants divided by same-year citizen voting-age population. These are total ballots or participating voters—not presidential candidate votes.
- 2024 total turnout
- 71.5%35,107 participants ÷ 49,112 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.9 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off versus state
- +2.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026 scenario
- 51.6%–55.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
| Election | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 · Presidential | 26,473 | 43,452 | 60.9% | A/A |
| 2018 · Midterm | 20,978 | 43,802 | 47.9% | A/A |
| 2020 · Presidential | 32,744 | 44,845 | 73.0% | A/A |
| 2022 · Midterm | 25,342 | 47,667 | 53.2% | A/A |
| 2024 · Presidential | 35,107 | 49,112 | 71.5% | A/A |
Sources and methods
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
Precinct data
Results by precinct
35 precincts · 34,950 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct 0025421030025 | 1,312 | 2,501 | 28 | 3,841 | 34.2% | 65.1% | R+31.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct 0035421030035 | 1,247 | 2,390 | 38 | 3,675 | 33.9% | 65.0% | R+31.1 |
| Precinct 0010421030010 | 1,218 | 2,011 | 23 | 3,252 | 37.5% | 61.8% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct 0065421030065 | 1,560 | 1,120 | 28 | 2,708 | 57.6% | 41.4% | D+16.2 |
| Precinct 0055421030055 | 1,307 | 1,191 | 28 | 2,526 | 51.7% | 47.1% | D+4.6 |
| Precinct 0110421030110 | 820 | 1,515 | 15 | 2,350 | 34.9% | 64.5% | R+29.6 |
| Precinct 0040421030040 | 675 | 1,421 | 13 | 2,109 | 32.0% | 67.4% | R+35.4 |
| Precinct 0015421030015 | 690 | 1,409 | 8 | 2,107 | 32.7% | 66.9% | R+34.1 |
| Precinct 0022421030022 | 666 | 1,420 | 18 | 2,104 | 31.7% | 67.5% | R+35.8 |
| Precinct 0140421030140 | 690 | 1,255 | 18 | 1,963 | 35.2% | 63.9% | R+28.8 |
| Precinct 0045421030045 | 582 | 1,269 | 8 | 1,859 | 31.3% | 68.3% | R+37.0 |
| Precinct 0130421030130 | 607 | 1,056 | 12 | 1,675 | 36.2% | 63.0% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct 0052421030052 | 477 | 1,123 | 17 | 1,617 | 29.5% | 69.4% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct 0070421030070 | 452 | 762 | 9 | 1,223 | 37.0% | 62.3% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct 0090421030090 | 385 | 599 | 10 | 994 | 38.7% | 60.3% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct 0100421030100 | 342 | 306 | 5 | 653 | 52.4% | 46.9% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct 0120421030120 | 102 | 189 | 3 | 294 | 34.7% | 64.3% | R+29.6 |
| BLOOMING GROVE TWP Voting District42_4210310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DELAWARE TWP PCT NORTH42_4210320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DELAWARE TWP PCT SOUTH42_4210321 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DINGMAN TWP DIST 0142_4210325 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| DINGMAN TWP DIST 0242_4210335 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| GREENE TWP Voting District42_4210340 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LACKAWAXEN TWP PCT NORTH42_4210350 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LACKAWAXEN TWP PCT SOUTH42_4210351 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHMAN TWP DIST 0142_4210355 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| LEHMAN TWP DIST 0242_4210365 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MATAMORAS VTD 0142_4210370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MATAMORAS VTD 0242_4210380 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MILFORD TWP Voting District42_4210390 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MILFORD Voting District42_42103100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PALMYRA TWP Voting District42_42103110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| PORTER TWP Voting District42_42103120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| SHOHOLA TWP Voting District42_42103130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| WESTFALL TWP Voting District42_42103140 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +40.7% |
| 1896 | +17.8% |
| 1900 | +27.6% |
| 1904 | +22.2% |
| 1908 | +19.4% |
| 1912 | +48.3% |
| 1916 | +23.5% |
| 1920 | −19.3% |
| 1924 | −20.2% |
| 1928 | −39.2% |
| 1932 | +5.5% |
| 1936 | +1.9% |
| 1940 | −17.6% |
| 1944 | −30.9% |
| 1948 | −41.1% |
| 1952 | −46.6% |
| 1956 | −54.6% |
| 1960 | −40.9% |
| 1964 | +1.9% |
| 1968 | −36.3% |
| 1972 | −52.1% |
| 1976 | −20.5% |
| 1980 | −39.1% |
| 1984 | −43.1% |
| 1988 | −35.9% |
| 1992 | −12.5% |
| 1996 | −8.3% |
| 2000 | −11.6% |
| 2004 | −17.8% |
| 2008 | −4.2% |
| 2012 | −11.1% |
| 2016 | −25.8% |
| 2020 | −19.0% |
| 2024 | −24.0% |
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate
Each row shows U.S. Senate votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
U.S. Senate special elections
Each row shows U.S. Senate special votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Governor
Each row shows Governor votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 4.0 points more Democratic.
47,140 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+743 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +3,974 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $85,690 in average income, against $82,648 for residents who stayed — 4% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+1.0 on average — 25 points more Democratic-leaning than Pike County, PA itself (R+24.0).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Orange County, NY253R+8.4
- Wayne County, PA138R+37.1
- Monroe County, PA122R+0.8
- Sussex County, NJ116R+24.9
- Kings County, NY88D+43.3
- Queens County, NY79D+24.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Monroe County, PA166
- Wayne County, PA153
- Orange County, NY121
- Sussex County, NJ69
- Lackawanna County, PA68
- Northampton County, PA43
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −279 |
| 2012 | −716 |
| 2013 | −148 |
| 2014 | −375 |
| 2015 | −284 |
| 2016 | −309 |
| 2017 | +543 |
| 2018 | +439 |
| 2019 | +144 |
| 2021 | +1,777 |
| 2022 | +767 |
| 2023 | +846 |
| 2024 | +826 |
| 2025 | +743 |
Pike County's population nearly tripled between 1980 and 2010 as New York metro residents relocated to the Poconos, yet that same transplant wave has since trended Republican by double digits, making it a studied case of exurban political realignment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 48.3 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 54.6 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 24.0 points.
A population of 60,621, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,323 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Greene County and Wayne County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Pike County, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/42103/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.