AkashicMO-05 — U.S. House
We expect Republicans to win83%The call
We expect Republicans to win.
What the market is pricing
via PolymarketThe market gives the Republicans a 84% chance to win.
The market and our model agree, and price it about the same — both favor the Republicans.
Implied probability from live Polymarket prices, two-party-normalized · as of Aug 1, 2026 · a market price is trader sentiment, not Akashic’s forecast. See the market on Polymarket → · How implied probability works →
| Candidate | Raised |
|---|---|
| Taylor BurksR | |
| Brett HueffmeierR | |
| Rick BrattinR | |
| Emanuel CleaverDIncumbent | not yet filing |
| Brad PattyR | not yet filing |
Receipts, cash on hand, and outside (independent-expenditure) spending from the Federal Election Commission. Bars are scaled within this race. REDISTRICTED: Missouri's 2026 mid-decade map (upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court) redrew the Kansas City-based 5th from roughly D+23 to R+17, deliberately targeting incumbent Emanuel Cleaver (D), who is running for re-election as the sole Democrat. Now Lean/Likely R (a potential GOP flip). Crowded Republican primary; contenders include state Sen. Rick Brattin, Taylor Burks, Brett Hueffmeier, and Brad Patty (others incl. Micah Beebe, Berton A. Knox have also filed). Primary not yet held. The field and its fundraising will keep updating as primaries settle and new FEC reports land.
The rating is grounded in this seat’s record on Akashic — its partisan lean, same-office history, and demographics. Read the full profile on the MO-05 place page.
| Year | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | DemocraticD | D+24 |
| 2022 | DemocraticD | D+25 |
| 2020 | DemocraticD | D+20 |
| 2018 | DemocraticD | D+26 |
| 2016 | DemocraticD | D+21 |
| 2014 | DemocraticD |
On election night this page will show the live result beside the call; after certification it joins the permanent record and is scored. · All U.S. House races →